Your special literacy isn’t all that. It was a stop gap until hardware caught up. SWE gigs was something politics saw as a “create jobs” opportunity.
Chip makers see the opportunity is there to claim more of the tech valuations for themselves reducing the number of software “engineers” and are coming for ya with global politics on their side. Not just the normies sick of IT.
Have you done these jobs before? Or is this more like a programmer’s dream of some fantasy camp version of manual labor?
It's not a matter of fantasizing about an idealized version of a dirty, hard blue collar job, but an honest assessment of something that will last longer than coding and will pay me money to feed myself.
If AI follows suit, there will be a wasteland of nonsense “AI” companies followed by some industry shifting AI technology companies, in about 10-15 years we’ll see who’s left.
You may be imagining a future where AI can do all jobs, but please be clear that this is your imagination. That future does not exist today and is not guaranteed to exist tomorrow. Before it can exist, a much simpler future where AI can replace any job has to exist, and that future doesn’t exist yet either.
assuming the premise of the thread, that some hypothetical AI replaces all the developers, I was questioning why such a hypothetical AI would be able to do the work of developers, but not do the supposed "new jobs" jotjotzzz believes would arise.
basically, if AI ever becomes autonomous and general enough to fully replace developers, it will be autonomous and general enough to handle any new jobs that pop up too.
Bill Gates Says Humans Won't Be Needed for 'Most Things' in the AI Age.
Also https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JCnAz_fYzW8
“Will we need humans” “Not for most things. We’ll decide..” rambling on
I’m not going to be negative just leave that there.
Gonna be a long time before infrastructure makes itself.
Developers aren't going to be replaced by AI. Have you seen how BAD this stuff is?
It might assist you in certain use cases, but it's not going to replace you.
"AI" is neither artificial, nor intelligent.
It's next token prediction, and it's still laughable what things it comes up with.
It will *NOT* replace a human developer who knows what they're doing and is actually capable of reason.
Most AI models today have the superhuman breadth of knowledge but the long-context intuition of a 4 year old. However only a year ago they were no better than a 2 year old. Every few months, many of the things people said AI could never do, the best models are able to do.
Is there a reason why this trend will just suddenly stop short of full human intellect? It's like assuming that humans could never invent a machine that can go faster than a human, or build anything taller than a human. Intelligence is a process of identifying patterns. Humans simply now just have a scale advantage over AI models (100T-1000T synapses in a human brain vs 2-10T parameters in the biggest models).
>It's next token prediction
Just because the architecture is simple doesn't mean intelligence can't emerge from it. It's like claiming the human brain can't be more complex than the human genome.
It splits tasks into augmentation (upgrading jobs) vs automation (taking jobs). But it's actually hard to separate the two - someone could ask for a full website then modify the code, which becomes augmentation.
Ironically software, especially web dev is at the top of the list. I just talked to someone yesterday who opted not to hire a designer who was being a little pushy in negotiations, and they opted to just hire v0 which would do the same thing faster. At the very least, it's replacing part-timers. We're also seeing teams shrink and churn and being replaced by less experienced (cheaper) members. That's not "taking jobs" either, but it's reducing the demand for seniors as more junior people are able to take on more senior responsibilities.
If you read Robert Greene books, they have a twist ending like "the child who killed his uncle was Ivan the Terrible" or "the British underestimated Afghan pride". I feel like this idea might have a twist ending as well.
So many options!
"This will make developers obsolete" is fairly standard marketing and crops up a couple times a decade (this has been going on for a while; COBOL was marketed this way!) At a certain point, it's an industry crying wolf, honestly.
mikece•9mo ago