Actually very little debate. We get a lot of unsubstantiated hype from companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft. So-called AI has barely made a dent in economic activities, and no company makes money from it. Tech journalism repeatedly fails to question the PR narrative (read Ed Zitron).

> Regardless of whether this will happen, or when, many people already have lost their jobs in part due to the emerging capabilities of AI models…

Consider the more likely explanation: many companies over-hired a few years ago and have cut jobs. Focus on stock price in an uncertain economy leads to layoffs. Easier to blame AI for layoffs than admitting C-suite management incompetence. Fear of the AI boogeyman gives employers the upper hand in hiring and salary negotiations, and keeps employers in line out of fear.

Plumbing.

Embalming and funeral direction.

Childrearing, especially of toddlers. Therapy for complex psychological conditions/ones with complications. Anything else that requires strong emotional and interpersonal judgement and the ability to think outside the box.

Politics/charisma. Influencers. Cult leaders. Anything else involving a cult of personality.

Stand up comics/improv artists. Nobody’s going to pay to sit in a room with other people and listen to a computer tell jokes.

World class athletes.

Top tier salespeople.

TV news and game show etc hosts.

Also note that a bunch of these (and other jobs) may vanish if the vast majority of the population is unemployed and only a few handfuls of billionaires can afford to pay anyone for services.

I’d also note that a lot of jobs will stay safe for much longer than we fear if AI continues to be unable to actually reason and can only handle patterns / extrapolations of patterns it’s already seen.

That’s why if you look at the leveling guidelines for any well known tech company, “codez real gud” only makes a difference between junior and mid level developers. After that it’s about “scope”, “impact” and “dealing with ambiguity”.

Yes I realize that there are still some “hard problems” that command a premium for people to be able to solve via code - that’s the other 10% and I’m being generous.

For example, Conflict resolution, therapy, and coaching depend on nuance, empathy, and trust.

Skilled trades like plumbing, electrical work, or HVAC repair, Auto mechanics, Elevator technicians.

Roles like physical presence plus knowledge Emergency responders (firefighters, EMTs), Disaster relief coordinators.