I would argue that something like Universal Basic Income is necessary, and likely a short-term stopgap at best. While we might not reach AGI soon (or ever), that doesn't mean LLM's aren't going to continue to improve and continue to replace / displace job sectors - they're already 'good enough' to have an impact on the software industry. One could argue that physical labor jobs are safe, but that's only true while Boston Dynamics type robots are still too expensive to justify. Like everything, the cost will continue to come down on robotics, and the convergence of AI with something like Boston Dynamics will eventually impact non-white-collar work. Again, set the time-line as you like, it's 'not a will it happen', but a 'when will it happen'.
Are governments aware of all this? Are they planning for a sort of post-money world? What happens when all jobs are automated and companies achieve even higher profits? Taxing them more and has its limits. Who is going to buy their products if everyone is out of work? Are we heading toward a sort of Star-Trek style social structure where money is no longer a thing? I used to conclude with my dad that these were problems far off in the future - and that may very well be true still - but having two kids under 5, it feels like this future isn't as far off as it used to be, and I really wonder what kind of work/world they'll be living in when they're my age.
Bender•6h ago
We are still quite a ways away from a robot showing up to the home or business to fix plumbing along with many other blue-collar jobs. It will happen but I have no clue when or if it will even happen in my lifetime. The prototype robots that could in theory do these jobs have a lot of development, real world testing and improvements before they are commercially viable in my opinion.
Like FSD they will have to prove themselves to multiple levels of government before they are permitted to perform regulated and licensed functions. Electrician, Plumber, Civic Engineering, Certified Aircraft Mechanic, etc... There are known-unknowns that will have to be dealt with before a generic robot is permitted into a home and operate around children such as security hardening and physical safety. How much strength, bending and killing power will a generic robot be permitted to have? What is the most damage a hacker can do to adults and children via remote control of a robot? Will all robots be required to have a "safe word" that is hard wired into their firmware and a physical cut-off switch in a standard location?
There will be unknown-unknowns that pop up along the way slowing their progression. There is also the aspect of insurance and liability for generic robots operating in a commercial environment, proof of protection from IP theft, protection from take-over by competitors. There will be questions such as what is a robots responsibility if it observes a human in danger, a human breaking laws, another robot malfunctioning or harming a human and so on.
Will these robots be permitted to share everything they witness with a company and / or government? What privacy laws will exist? What happens if a robot starts to exhibit true sentience and not just mimicry of sentience like LLM's? Will their be a legal process to validate sentience? What rights will robots be afforded? Will sentient robots be given human rights? Will a marriage between a human and robot be legally recognized? If a robot breaks the law will it be punished or would that fall back to the corporation as a "industrial incident" of sorts? How will we determine the line between accident and remote assassination?
Yes I have watched iRobot way too many times and I have always enjoyed Isaac Asimov's works.
As for UBI, something has to pay for it. In the USA we already have a massive national debt and the petro dollar may not exist much longer the only thing allowing us to have such a massive dept. Do we cancel all existing welfare and related programs and consolidate them into UBI? Would that even begin to pay for such a universally applied program for hundreds of millions of people? I know people will suggest Robin Hood tactics like excessive taxes on the wealthy but that would be short lived even if it were ever approved. What would be the viable long term strategy?
Oh right, and there will still be a need for firefighters, law enforcement, medical response. Do we trust robots and their masters enough to have Robocops, ED-209's, Armadyne Corp. droids and all the other dystopian fictional robots regulating us humans? Corporations and their lobbyists make most of the laws.
fuzzfactor•5h ago
Too late, they've already been consolidated in the complete opposite direction.