matches my observation of people's behaviour. I myself also cut back on alcohol for some years, I don't even have a beer at home.

Permanent? Not likely. Even if it's really down now, wait a generation.

Another article that amounts to, "Here is an observed trend. Let us assume this trend continues uninterrupted and unmodified by feedback, changing circumstances, and other factors."

I believe that alcohol consumption is down, I don't believe that implies that it's going to essentially vanish. The PRESSURE to consume alcohol as part of social routine, at least in the US and some parts of the world, has definitely been greatly reduced. The increasing focus on health, quality of life, and longevity also clashes pretty strongly with significant consumption of alcohol. It's probably also worth noting that in a world where your drunken indiscretions may well be immortalized in 4K for the rest of your life, the stakes are a bit higher than they used to be.

Having said that the notion that this indicates some move away from vice seems unfounded, and there are plenty of external factors that could make obliterating yourself with alcohol a more tempting prospect than it is today.

I wonder if it’s because science has started to come around to the fact that alcohol causes a whole host of health problems like cancer and heart disease and people are realizing it’s not worth it? I also saw a fascinating note that the new appetite inhibiting weight loss drugs reduce alcohol cravings as well. I expect alcohol is going through the same identity change that smoking did two decades ago. It won’t die out entirely, but the downshift is probably permanent. Unless and until we wipe the slate of scientific knowledge that is.