Euro or Yuan is my guess.
I'm inclined to say the Euro over the Yuan, if the US collpases then China is bound to follow. Their debts are tightly bound up together.
A totally possible outcome is nothing really replaces the dollar as the reserve currency, and international trade is just... less efficient because of it.
If the world moves away from the dollar, I think having a singular reserve currency replace it is probably the best case scenario
quick rich, scorched earth, whatever u can keep
Yuan is too closely regulated to stay in China. I doubt it would be viable unless China first steps up their _attitude_ towards being a currency provider.
The EMU is an amalgamation of countries that barely hold together, have vastly different opinions on government spending, and isn't already a "world currency."
I do think we'll eventually have a single currency on the planet, but the question is what happens in my lifetime. And that's much less certain.
If you have a currency that's needed for something like buying a staple like oil from other than that country then that $$ is worth more, is artificially high, and that country will tend to always have trade deficits
It's very much a case of "you can't have your cake and eat it too" - it also means that Trump's tariffs are very much an incentive for the rest of the world to get off of the US oil $
Gold isn't that much more expensive than it was in e.g. 1980. It is pretty much just saying there's risk in other places at the moment and people are nervous. You should buy gold if your prediction is a complete collapse of economies along the lines of the great depression. I think this is extremely unlikely.
Short gold ;)
I've always wanted to get some physical gold just because it's so nice and shiny. But I'll wait for the price to go a little down. Maybe Costco selling gold bars is what's pushing up the price/demand?
China is.
Of course this might be entirely moot since US is in the process of committing economic suicide for no apparent reason.
That had little effect on GDP growth, though.
It’s not like the gap has been narrowed that much in the last 15 years:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?location...
It’s not that long until China’s demographic issues will start having a huge impact.
Unless something significant changes it’s not inconceivable if China never catches up.
Obviously such longterm projections are semi meaningless but China will likely have less than 500 million people by the end of the century.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
(UK people: do not buy as investment any gold which will require you to pay VAT!)
Gold / Global M2 would be a better metric, but I haven't analyzed that yet.
The nice thing about physical gold compared to just about everything else is that it has a non-zero bottom. You put money there not because you expect growth, but because you want to still be holding something once this is all over.
Sure US share of world gdp is hovering around 25% for decades. But, world gdp share of what I would call US adjacent economies, like EU, JPN, UK etc., is decreasing with rise of chinese economy. US could comfortably run petrodollar and global reserve currency with the help of these adjacent economies by exporting US deficit, by forcing these adjacent economies to make concessions like plaza accords when running deficit dollar becomes tough.
China on the other hand is making moves to make maintaining deficit dollar impossible in long run, non-floating yuan, export dumping, belt road etc. We are running in to situation where deficit dollar and global economy decoupling could happen from both sides US and other countries. This is one way triffn dilemma could get resolved.
Anyway, ditto to everything you said. Fade the doomers who are calling for the collapse of the USD. There simply isn't an alternative. China won't give up the control as they would need to do to be the holder of the next reserve currency. The EU is a fractured joke of a union that can't be trusted to manage it either. The US continues to be the least bad option. We have deep markets to provide liquidity needed for the global economy. We still have, more or less, the rule of law and a system of checks and balances. The USD will eventually be replaced but it will likely take decades.
Gold is likely in a structural bull market. It thrives in times of uncertainty and the world is far from certain.
As bad of a president as trump is, he will not destroy America. Things have been bad before, and they got better. We will see better times again.
Edit: And, yes, central banks have as of late been increasing gold reserves. Expect some of those gold reserves to be liquidated in the event that those countries currencies need support. Gold can have amazing periods like we've just witnesses and then just sit there for ten years. It's good for diversification though and from what I've heard from smarter people than me, something like 10% of your portfolio in gold isn't a terrible idea. Just DCA into it instead of panic buying at a potential top.
Oh and this is HN. Most of us have no clue when it comes to economics and are merely parroting our favorite twitter guru or Peter Zeihan. Trust us when we talk about software but take everything you hear in these economic related threads with a huge grain of salt.
This might have been true 10 years ago but that's not the case today. I was in Chengdu last week and I paid at a store market with a TnG wallet using Malaysia MYR. Sure this is only South East Asia, but many countries now have their own ewallet thing and they can be ready in a short time to move.
You sure about that? Lincoln almost managed it just by getting elected, given secession happened between election and inauguration.
I can't tell how bad Trump really is. If he's what he looks like, then he's purging anyone who won't butter up his ego. With that in mind: What would have happened if nobody had been willing to tell him it was a bad idea to open the northern California dams to solve the fire in Los Angeles, and they'd all been drained?
Really hard to predict. Confidence has eroded but emotions can switch very quickly to fear of missing the next rally.
Maybe a more fundamental question is what multiples are the new normal and where are interest rates going.
Says you. A month ago I was trying to buy 1oz bars as gifts for my niece and nephew, from Costco of all places. They were often sold out by noon, sometimes queues for the stuff.
I wasn't even trying to buy something that was going to appreciate in value quickly, it's already gone up >10% from the Costco price at the time.
USD seems doomed right now, through the lens of the price of gold in USD.
Is there data or is this speculation? After the Gamestop saga, I would 100% believe that the gold market is being driven by a liquidity crunch as lots of random individuals buy gold bars to stuff in their sock drawers.
So, Gold NFTs?
https://investorsobserver.com/news/3500-gold-means-life-in-a...
It turns out Peter Schiff owns SchiffGold, a large gold dealer. This guy is saying we all need to own gold due to economic turmoil, and then turns around and sells it by the ton.
Also, it's worth taking a look at the Gold/USD since 1970 on a log chart. The rate of increase we're seeing right now is not at all unusual, and it has gone through periods of much faster growth. From 1970-1980, it increased 3000% in only 10 years.
It's also worth noting that gold fell sharply in the days following the tariff announcements (6.66%, oddly enough) and then took off. The immediate reaction to economic news is typically smart money because they can estimate the longer term impact faster and price it in. The delayed reaction usually comes from dumb money.
Something just feels very off about this to me.
On the other hand, as the Economist said, there's another 1300 days of this.
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+------Bitcoin seems to solve all the problems the Dollar and Gold have as a reserve currency. It is independent of trade deficits, can be stored and transferred easily. Cannot be printed away.
What alternative future is there to Bitcoin becoming the new reserve currency?
Bitcoin not becoming the new reserve currency.
Why would any government want this a feature? As far as sovereigns are concerned, this is a bug, not a feature. You and I might or might not agree with it, but no sovereign government would give away its ability to print money.
2) Bitcoin has a public and transparent ledger. Why would any government want the whole world to see their reserve amounts and movements in real time?
I'm not a sovereign and I don't want this feature either.
For the economy as a whole? Well it leads to a lot less debt amongst other things constant economic depressions (like back in the 1800s)
no sovereign government would give
away its ability to print money
As an issuer, they wouldn't. But nobody can issue Bitcoin anyway, so that's clearly irrelevant.
As a reserve, it would be the same ones who buy gold, for the same reason.
Also extreme price volatility make it not a great reserve asset.
Gradually, then suddenly
Say country A trades goods with country B and they pay each other in Bitcoin.
Now what could country C do about it?
What do you mean by "takeover"?
walterbell•9h ago
walterbell•7h ago
HN ranking history for this thread, https://hnrankings.info/43809241/