I think this expectation is already priced in. I invested when I saw LLMs kicking off with no reflection in the NVIDIA share price and made 10x when the market caught up.

Now with tariff uncertainty and trump signalling to China (via Russia) that there would be no repercussions for invading Taiwan I’m less convinced there is growth there, but the possibility of massive loss. In the days of meme stocks this might not matter of course.

Note that an invasion of Taiwan would have huge implications everywhere but any company that needs leading edge semiconductors to directly sell their products would be screwed more than others.

GPUs targeting more RAM-hungry applications exist, but they’re quite a bit more expensive, so people who play games buy gaming GPUs while people who need more VRAM buy cards targeting that application.

Why would a consumer want to pay for 40GB of VRAM if 12GB will do everything they need?

An earthquake three months ago, production issues, and insatiable demand mean that every single GDDR/HBM chip being made at factories already operating at maximum capacity has been sold to a waiting customer.

If Nvidia wanted to double the amount of VRAM on their products, the only thing that would happen is the supply of finished products would be halved.

No amount of money can fix it, only time.

[0] https://skinflint.co.uk/?cat=gra16_512&view=gallery&pg=1&v=e...

They have shit data since Amazon doesn't really sell most of those cards and they do no validation