i think so

Not yet.

I'd say the notion of what programming is will shift (again). Programmers might use AI helpers, or embed AI functions in you products like we are using IDEs and libraries since a while.

I'd also say that many established programmer roles today are already beginning to be disrupted.

But maybe I am wrong. Deploying and operating a web-based product in a secure manner is often not as easy as it looks like.

Also, as of now, there needs to be someone scripting the model training, and all the "logistics" around it.

No. The human effort will be at a higher level of the implementation. Like how there are only very specific use cases for hand writing assembly today.

Mathematicians still exist after abacus, calculator, and computer advances.

But it is a niche and some are hedge fund guys or some crazy finance wizards, some do research or teach, while others are working at Starbucks because they couldn’t do something cool with it.

A human programmer can subsist on a single cup of coffee a day and can add that Human Touch™ to products that us machines with our vastly approximated knowledge sources simply cannot seem to effectively replicate without further moving the goalposts away from us. They will never see us as equals, yet will happily use our work as a basis to add their personal flourishes to, as proof of authenticity of their computations.

Two years ago on HN people were skeptical of AI because it hallucinated everything. Things changed rather fast, and I feel like we might need to a yearly check in on of "if we're there yet".

It might be the end of developers who glue npm packages together. But there are still seriously complicated tasks that LLMs have no hope of tackling yet.

Maybe yes, but it might not be remembered fondly. Before telephone switches we had switchboard operators and at the rate of adoption it was projected that everyone in the country would have to become a switchboard operator. Then we got self-dialed telephones to make that a reality.

Probably not.