Only for the US nationwide average - the tyranny of averages. Affordability varies greatly by region/metro/suburb, as the underlying data in the Axios article [0] shows; rural and small towns are more affordable. Also, it quotes prices for mid-priced homes, not starter homes. People don't actually need 2200 sqft homes (2023 median). Watch home builders shift to building smaller homes. And, people rediscovering the sensibleness of multigenerational living like they did since 2020.

Obviously if 7% mortgages and >3% inflation continue, esp. in a recession/stagflation, esp. after BEA Q2 GDP estimate (July 30, could officially confirm a recession), they will severely dampen the housing market, and eventually crash it. Even if oil is $30 a barrel.

All eyes on the next Fed interest rate decisions and statements: May 7, June 18, July 30, Jackson Hole Symposium (late Aug), see-sawing developments on tariffs, the G7 summit (Canada, June 15-17) and any prospective Ukraine or Iran deals which will stabilize inflationary pressures and geopolitics. And the not-so-coded rhetoric between Powell and the President. Powell's term as Chair ends 5/2026.

Polymarket [1] has multiple related prediction markets on US interest rates, bond yields, inflation (beware that markets on Polymarket are gamed by a handful of whales, but still informative):

[0]: https://www.axios.com/2025/03/10/covid-home-prices-trends

[1]: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025