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Most LLM cost isn't compute – it's identity drift (110-cycle GPT-4o benchmark)

https://github.com/sigmastratum/documentation/blob/main/sigma-runtime/SR-EI-03/benchmark_report_S...
1•teugent•31s ago•1 comments

Show HN: PlanEat AI, an AI iOS app for weekly meal plans and smart grocery lists

1•franklinm1715•36s ago•0 comments

A Post-Incident Control Test for External AI Representation

https://zenodo.org/records/17921051
1•businessmate•1m ago•1 comments

اdifference gbps overview find answers

1•shahrtjany•2m ago•0 comments

Measuring Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Dev Productivity

https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089
1•vismit2000•3m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Lazy Demos

http://demoscope.app/lazy
1•admtal•4m ago•0 comments

AI-Driven Facial Recognition Leads to Innocent Man's Arrest (Bodycam Footage) [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9M4F_U1eEw
1•niczem•5m ago•1 comments

Annual Production of 1/72 (22mm) scale plastic soldiers, 1958-2025

https://plasticsoldierreview.com/ShowFeature.aspx?id=27
1•YeGoblynQueenne•6m ago•0 comments

Error-Handling and Locality

https://www.natemeyvis.com/error-handling-and-locality/
1•Theaetetus•7m ago•0 comments

Petition for David Sacks to Self-Deport

https://form.jotform.com/253464131055147
1•resters•7m ago•0 comments

Get found where people search today

https://kleonotus.com/
1•makenotesfast•10m ago•1 comments

Show HN: An early-warning system for SaaS churn (not another dashboard)

https://firstdistro.com
1•Jide_Lambo•10m ago•1 comments

Tell HN: Musk has never *tweeted* a guess for real identity of Satoshi Nakamoto

1•tokenmemory•11m ago•2 comments

A Practical Approach to Verifying Code at Scale

https://alignment.openai.com/scaling-code-verification/
1•gmays•13m ago•0 comments

Show HN: macOS tool to restore window layouts

https://github.com/zembutsu/tsubame
1•zembutsu•15m ago•0 comments

30 Years of <Br> Tags

https://www.artmann.co/articles/30-years-of-br-tags
1•FragrantRiver•22m ago•0 comments

Kyoto

https://github.com/stevepeak/kyoto
2•handfuloflight•23m ago•0 comments

Decision Support System for Wind Farm Maintenance Using Robotic Agents

https://www.mdpi.com/2571-5577/8/6/190
1•PaulHoule•23m ago•0 comments

Show HN: X-AnyLabeling – An open-source multimodal annotation ecosystem for CV

https://github.com/CVHub520/X-AnyLabeling
1•CVHub520•26m ago•0 comments

Penpot Docker Extension

https://www.ajeetraina.com/introducing-the-penpot-docker-extension-one-click-deployment-for-self-...
1•rainasajeet•27m ago•0 comments

Company Thinks It Can Power AI Data Centers with Supersonic Jet Engines

https://www.extremetech.com/science/this-company-thinks-it-can-power-ai-data-centers-with-superso...
1•vanburen•30m ago•0 comments

If AIs can feel pain, what is our responsibility towards them?

https://aeon.co/essays/if-ais-can-feel-pain-what-is-our-responsibility-towards-them
3•rwmj•34m ago•5 comments

Elon Musk's xAI Sues Apple and OpenAI over App Store Drama

https://mashable.com/article/elon-musk-xai-lawsuit-apple-openai
1•paulatreides•37m ago•1 comments

Ask HN: Build it yourself SWE blogs?

1•bawis•37m ago•1 comments

Original Apollo 11 Guidance Computer source code

https://github.com/chrislgarry/Apollo-11
3•Fiveplus•43m ago•0 comments

How Did the CIA Lose Nuclear Device?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/12/13/world/asia/cia-nuclear-device-himalayas-nanda-devi...
1•Wonnk13•43m ago•1 comments

Is vibe coding the new gateway to technical debt?

https://www.infoworld.com/article/4098925/is-vibe-coding-the-new-gateway-to-technical-debt.html
2•birdculture•47m ago•1 comments

Why Rust for Embedded Systems? (and Why I'm Teaching Robotics with It)

https://blog.ravven.dev/blog/why-rust-for-embedded-systems/
2•aeyonblack•48m ago•0 comments

EU: Protecting children without the privacy nightmare of Digital IDs

https://democrats.eu/en/protecting-minors-online-without-violating-privacy-is-possible/
3•valkrieco•49m ago•0 comments

Using E2E Tests as Documentation

https://www.vaslabs.io/post/using-e2e-tests-as-documentation
1•lihaoyi•49m ago•0 comments
Open in hackernews

Is there a balance to be struck between simple hierarchical models and

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/05/26/is-there-a-balance-to-be-struck-between-simple-hierarchical-models-and-more-complex-hierarchical-models-that-augment-the-simple-frameworks-with-more-modeled-interactions-when-analyzing-real-data/
40•luu•7mo ago

Comments

Onawa•7mo ago
Full Title: Is there a balance to be struck between simple hierarchical models and more complex hierarchical models that augment the simple frameworks with more modeled interactions when analyzing real data?
a-dub•7mo ago
"When working on your particular problem, start with simple comparisons and then fit more and more complicated models until you have what you want."

sounds algorithmic...

mnky9800n•7mo ago
Yes and you can even build symbolic engines that do this for you. I think the real question we must ask ourselves as data scientists or statisticians or whatever is whether we believe these data models represent the space of data fully or by happenstance. And if by happenstance is it because the data doesn’t capture the underlying processes that produced the data or are they uncapturable in this way and function approximators like neural networks or gradient booster machines are better. And is that because those function approximators capture interactions between the driving processes that otherwise go unseen or is it because those processes have fractional dimensions that control their impact that are not captured by data models. This all is summed up well by Leo Breimans two cultures paper in my opinion. I have gone back and forth on which “culture” is the correct representation of how processes produce data. If you buy that only function approximators truly capture the complexity of whatever processes you are observing then you have to wonder why physics works so well. That’s because, at least in my opinion, from the statistical point of view physics has spent centuries developing equations that are linear combinations of variables that are essentially data models according to Leo. I hope this opinion generates discussion because I don’t know what the answer is or if it matters that there is one.
a-dub•7mo ago
seems to me that one approach is fueled by data and the other is fueled by understanding. in the former, the observations form a view of behavior which is then modeled with high fidelity. in the latter, active inquiry, adversarial data collection and careful reasoning produce simpler models of hypothsized underlying processes that often prove to have nearly perfect generalization.

the interesting future is probably the one where the former produces new building blocks for the latter. (ie, the computer generates new simple and easy to understand constructs from which it explains previously not understood or well modeled phenomena.)

joe_the_user•7mo ago
Well, my impression is that the statistic paradigm itself limits the complexity of a model through it's basic aims and measures. Especially, a statistical model aims to be an unbiased predictor of a variable whereas machine learning/"AI" just aims for prediction and doesn't care about bias in the sense of statistics.
klysm•7mo ago
I think they have totally different goals typically. For example, let’s say we are doing a sampling procedure. How do you estimate the sampling error? I’m not aware of a machine learning technique that will help, but you can use Bayesian and MCMC techniques
usgroup•7mo ago
I think this is accurate but mostly because statistical modelling aims for interpretable parameters. That very strongly regularises complexity.