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The Case for AGI by 2030

https://80000hours.org/agi/guide/when-will-agi-arrive/
3•doitLP•5h ago

Comments

andsoitis•5h ago
> “we are now confident we know how to build AGI”

Uhm. If you knew how to build AGI, what is your logical next step? Is this step in the interest of humanity?

turtleyacht•5h ago
"But oh, to be free. Not have to go poof! What do you need? Poof! What do you need? Poof! What do you need? But to be my own master, such a thing would be greater than all the magic and all the treasures in all the world."

- Aladdin (1992)

RetroTechie•2h ago
We should also ask ourselves: assuming AGI (far exceeding human capabilities in every field of intellect) will emerge in near-future, could turn against humanity, look for ways to wipe us out and/or plunge our society in total chaos (or send us on a self-destruct path), what could humanity do to prevent such scenarios?

I doubt this would happen. But can we rule it out 100%? We've become dependent on technology + networked systems to a high degree. If that's messed with (large-scale, worldwide, many different systems simultaneously or in short order), can we still 'unplug'? (those AGI systems, or ourselves - take your pick)

For the naysayers: some possibilities:

# AGI systems co-operating. Or taking over other systems to further their goals.

# Discovering ways to erase (or corrupt / subtly modify) most data stored in datacenters, and most backups too.

# Exploiting 0-days to do similar bad stuff to PC's, smartphones, etc. Remember most such devices are always-connected these days & employ automatic updates.

# Mess with critical infrastructure like power grids, logistics chains, public transport / flight control systems, etc. Or plunge stock markets into chaos.

# Develop a deadly biological weapon, have that synthesized somewhere, and cause it to be released.

# Mess with social media & news networks, to send humans into mass hysteria (or blissfully unaware what's about to hit them).

Granted, such a "rise of the machines" scenario sounds pretty wild. But "99.999% certain this won't happen", doesn't cut it imho. A 100% safety guarantee is needed here.

Zambyte•4h ago
I'd be interested in a case against AGI now. Can you define "general intelligence" in a measurable way (even subjectively) that includes things usually considered to have general intelligence (at least humans) but doesn't include existing AI systems?

People seem to have this idea of AGI that it is an all knowing oracle of truth that is perpetually beyond the current capabilities. This is useful for convincing VCs that you need more funding, and fear mongering the government into regulating away competition. A simple and reasonable alternative conclusion is that AGI has been here for years, and that reality just isn't quite as exciting as sci-fi.

Will AGI capabilities increase? Sure, as we build out more tools for AGI to reach for, and as the intelligent agents themselves mature. Fundamentally, it is here.

Lockal•3h ago
Ah, "machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do" - 1965

How to Make Money with ChatGPT: 6 Proven Methods

https://wilnickmagazine.com/how-to-make-money-with-chatgpt/
1•Leonise•2m ago•0 comments

The most powerful MCP Slack Server with no permission requirements on Workspaces

https://github.com/korotovsky/slack-mcp-server
1•korotovskii•2m ago•0 comments

Codebase to Easy Tutorial with AI

https://code2tutorial.com
1•lemming•2m ago•1 comments

Windows 10 to Linux upcycling campaign

https://endof10.org/
1•disdi•5m ago•0 comments

Duolingo CEO says there may still be schools in our AI future

https://www.businessinsider.com/duolingo-ceo-schools-ai-future-childcare-2025-5
1•01-_-•6m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Goboscript, text-based programming language, compiles to Scratch

https://github.com/aspizu/goboscript
3•aspizu•7m ago•0 comments

Problems in toy GenAI: Consistency across generations

https://musings-mr.net/post/oErAAntmM8a3ywgDRoP5
1•mrkiouak•9m ago•1 comments

Pope Leo: "AI May Be the Next Tower of Babel"

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1922982795372265835
2•palmfacehn•12m ago•0 comments

XAI posts Grok's behind-the-scenes prompts

https://www.theverge.com/news/668527/xai-grok-system-prompts-ai
1•01-_-•13m ago•0 comments

Utility for mass-downloading LRC synced lyrics for your offline music library

https://github.com/tranxuanthang/lrcget
1•sadeshmukh•15m ago•0 comments

What's with the weird wReserved value at the start of the DECIMAL structure?

https://devblogs.microsoft.com/oldnewthing/20250516-00/?p=111185
1•HeliumHydride•16m ago•0 comments

Signal Knockoff App Telemessage Got Hacked in 20 Minutes

https://www.wired.com/story/how-the-signal-knock-off-app-telemessage-got-hacked-in-20-minutes/
2•throw5425•27m ago•0 comments

How to Get Smart Again

https://postcardsbyelle.substack.com/p/how-to-get-smart-again
2•kiyanwang•30m ago•0 comments

Magic of software; what makes a good engineer also makes a good engineering org

https://moxie.org/2024/09/23/a-good-engineer.html
1•kiyanwang•32m ago•0 comments

Neovim has over 100 AI plugins now

https://www.reddit.com/r/neovim/s/8qW7XtUDUQ
1•alwillis•45m ago•0 comments

"You Will Own Nothing" [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIhWnurBzB4
4•inatreecrown2•55m ago•0 comments

To progress as an engineer career-wise, become a great communicator

https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/18/communications_for_engineers/
2•iancmceachern•57m ago•0 comments

How to self-host your app, the right way

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2•cmpit•59m ago•0 comments

Computational Public Spaces [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PixPSNRDNMU
2•veqq•1h ago•0 comments

Austin book club has been reading the same book for 12 years

https://www.texasstandard.org/stories/finnegans-wake-reading-group-austin-tx-atx-texas-james-joyce-book-club/
2•robenkleene•1h ago•0 comments

Not One Selfie

https://protesilaos.com/commentary/2025-05-16-not-one-selfie/
2•ambigious7777•1h ago•0 comments

Christmas Comes Early with AI Santa Demo

https://hackaday.com/2025/05/18/christmas-comes-early-with-ai-santa-demo/
1•Sean-Der•1h ago•0 comments

Musk Strikes Starlink Deal with Saudi Arabia During Trump Visit

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/musk-strikes-starlink-deal-with-saudi-arabia-during-trump-visit
3•JumpCrisscross•1h ago•0 comments

Why Our CTO Banned TypeScript After One Migration

https://arthur.place/why-our-cto-banned-typescript
4•arthurfiorette•1h ago•2 comments

When a team is too big

https://blog.alexewerlof.com/p/when-a-team-is-too-big
2•gpi•1h ago•0 comments

Capalyze – Natural language data analysis

https://capalyze.ai/home
2•alexliu518•1h ago•1 comments

The lack of a good command line way to sort IPv6 addresses

https://utcc.utoronto.ca/~cks/space/blog/unix/SortingIPv6Addresses
7•zdw•1h ago•4 comments

Effort and Challenges in Building Embedded Audio DSP Software Across Platforms

https://switchboard.audio/hub/building-embedded-audio-dsp/
1•pabs3•1h ago•0 comments

Making Spin-on-Dopant for DIY Semiconductor Fabrication [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dFj-tGn8DI
2•zdw•2h ago•0 comments

Everything's a Bug (Or an Issue)

https://www.bozemanpass.com/everythings-a-bug-or-an-issue/
1•dboreham•2h ago•0 comments