First tranche sold at 93c to the dollar; second sold at 98c to the dollar, with a surprise from X which covered the 2c loss, so essentially dollar for dollar.

Morgan Stanley and Bank of America came out on top of this trade. Musk's government involvement was not known with any certainty when he bought X.

I don't think they were "assuming" but rather betting on a win by republicans.

"Morgan Stanley held the lenders together, betting on the relationship of one of its then top bankers — Michael Grimes — and his client Musk, people familiar with the matter said. The bank led weekly calls to update the other lenders on X’s performance. Working together as a bloc helped avoid one single bank abruptly selling the debt at a discount."

Sounds like... collusion.

Which part exactly?