Note the insane asymmetry at play here: a fairly poor country just took out a good chunk of the nuclear capability of a former world power for absolute peanuts.
paganel•8mo ago
This was most probably supervised by NATO, there's no other way.
> former world power
Russia still is a nuclear hyper-power, people here in Europe kind of seem to forget that, for whatever reason. Still a big L for Russia, of course, but they've have many wars with such big Ls, wars which they've eventually won.
More generally, this puts all the nuclear strategists, on both sides (three, I guess, if we're also counting China as an up-and-coming nuclear hyper-power) back to re-write almost everything that has been written in the last 60 or so years when it comes to nuclear strategy. Irkutsk was supposed to be un-reachable by conventional means, which I guess is also the calculation done by the Americans when it comes to their nuclear and strategic air bases located in places like North Dakota or Wyoming, that doesn't seem to be the case anymore.
hkpack•8mo ago
> there's no other way.
There is the other way, and you're observing it yourself.
Underestimating Ukraine is the regular trope of the west for all of Ukraine's independence.
Ukrainians in mil-tech who interact with NATO regularly mention that the alliance is significantly behind on the modern warfare tech and the gap increases every day.
maeil•8mo ago
Satellites and intel are the obvious one where they'd get help, surely? Basically everything else, from strategy to execution, it makes sense that they're ahead as you're suggesting.
paganel•8mo ago
When it comes to drones, yes, UA is way ahead of the Westerners, I’ve hinted to that in the recent comments I still leave on this website (you can check both my comment and submission history). But this wouldn’t have been possible without top-notch reconnaissance and especially communication, I’m pretty sure that right now Ukraine doesn’t have the tech capability to stream almost instant video-feeds from its drones attacking in Irkutsk. Just look at any map, you need satellite communications for that (or somehow UA infiltrating RU’s network and using it at will, undetected).
hkpack•8mo ago
I don't know whether you've noticed, but both countries perform robotic drone operation (on land, air and on the water) well above the abilities of direct radio communication in a highly radio jammed space for some time now.
The tech and the infrastructure required for that is non trivial and is being built and evolves every day.
Most likely, for this specific case the civilian infrastructure was used for relaying traffic. This is one of the reason why Russia shuts down internet in the areas of deep aerial drone strikes.
Keep in mind that according to the reports this operation was planned for more than a year and was not something done without deep planning.
fifilura•8mo ago
I suppose Russia also has mobile network?
I have seen some comments speculating that the trucks relayed 5G signals to the drones.
thecompilr•8mo ago
The used regular drones and the streaming was done over regular cellular networks
dralley•8mo ago
>When it comes to drones, yes, UA is way ahead of the Westerners
This happens to have been a drone operation.
>But this wouldn’t have been possible without top-notch reconnaissance and especially communication
Ukrainian intelligence has been focused near-exclusively on Russia for more than a decade, and they likely have more human intelligence assets in Russia right now than the US has ever had.
>you need satellite communications for that (or somehow UA infiltrating RU’s network and using it at will, undetected).
another way of writing that would be "acquiring a couple dozen Russian SIM cards and pairing them with the kind of cellular radios half the planet has in their pocket right now".
No aspects of this operation require any particularly advanced technology or intelligence.
NicoJuicy•8mo ago
GDP and population says otherwise.
mopsi•8mo ago
> This was most probably supervised by NATO, there's no other way.
Technically speaking, this is a hobby-level undertaking. A model airplane club could "supervise" such an operation.
Skills needed:
1. Build a mechanism to remotely open the roof of a cargo container.
2. Add a GPS tracker to the container to follow its position.
3. Build a signal repeater that uses commercial cellular service to provide connectivity to the container.
4. Tape explosives to toy drones and wire their detonators to a drone function that can serve as a trigger.
Which one do you reckon would be too difficult for a group of 16-year-olds who know their way around Arduino?
tim333•8mo ago
>probably supervised by NATO
It's been said Trump wasn't told till after it happened which is understandable with him being kinda pro Russian.
treetalker•8mo ago
Indeed, and once you acquire this mental model you notice it everywhere. I first picked it up by reading David Galula's book Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice. I commend that work to everyone who finds this topic interesting — it's a wonderful book and among the few that I keep on my shelf for periodic rereading. The central ideas are applicable far beyond warfare, and far beyond business operations too.
jacquesm•8mo ago
paganel•8mo ago
> former world power
Russia still is a nuclear hyper-power, people here in Europe kind of seem to forget that, for whatever reason. Still a big L for Russia, of course, but they've have many wars with such big Ls, wars which they've eventually won.
More generally, this puts all the nuclear strategists, on both sides (three, I guess, if we're also counting China as an up-and-coming nuclear hyper-power) back to re-write almost everything that has been written in the last 60 or so years when it comes to nuclear strategy. Irkutsk was supposed to be un-reachable by conventional means, which I guess is also the calculation done by the Americans when it comes to their nuclear and strategic air bases located in places like North Dakota or Wyoming, that doesn't seem to be the case anymore.
hkpack•8mo ago
There is the other way, and you're observing it yourself.
Underestimating Ukraine is the regular trope of the west for all of Ukraine's independence.
Ukrainians in mil-tech who interact with NATO regularly mention that the alliance is significantly behind on the modern warfare tech and the gap increases every day.
maeil•8mo ago
paganel•8mo ago
hkpack•8mo ago
The tech and the infrastructure required for that is non trivial and is being built and evolves every day.
Most likely, for this specific case the civilian infrastructure was used for relaying traffic. This is one of the reason why Russia shuts down internet in the areas of deep aerial drone strikes.
Keep in mind that according to the reports this operation was planned for more than a year and was not something done without deep planning.
fifilura•8mo ago
I have seen some comments speculating that the trucks relayed 5G signals to the drones.
thecompilr•8mo ago
dralley•8mo ago
This happens to have been a drone operation.
>But this wouldn’t have been possible without top-notch reconnaissance and especially communication
Ukrainian intelligence has been focused near-exclusively on Russia for more than a decade, and they likely have more human intelligence assets in Russia right now than the US has ever had.
>you need satellite communications for that (or somehow UA infiltrating RU’s network and using it at will, undetected).
another way of writing that would be "acquiring a couple dozen Russian SIM cards and pairing them with the kind of cellular radios half the planet has in their pocket right now".
No aspects of this operation require any particularly advanced technology or intelligence.
NicoJuicy•8mo ago
mopsi•8mo ago
Technically speaking, this is a hobby-level undertaking. A model airplane club could "supervise" such an operation.
Skills needed:
1. Build a mechanism to remotely open the roof of a cargo container.
2. Add a GPS tracker to the container to follow its position.
3. Build a signal repeater that uses commercial cellular service to provide connectivity to the container.
4. Tape explosives to toy drones and wire their detonators to a drone function that can serve as a trigger.
Which one do you reckon would be too difficult for a group of 16-year-olds who know their way around Arduino?
tim333•8mo ago
It's been said Trump wasn't told till after it happened which is understandable with him being kinda pro Russian.
treetalker•8mo ago