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This is a weekly brief looking at what the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks are each week. To do this, we parse millions of news pieces a week and discuss the most urgent ones with elite forecasters to find out.

linearithmic•8mo ago

I'd be curious about forecaster estimates of monetary damages from the drone strikes.

NunoSempere•8mo ago

I did briefly look into how much the estimated $7B was as a proportion of GDP: 7B/2T = 0.35% of GDP, which feels like a lot. For 41 planes it'd be $170M per plane, which seems reasonable when compared to US bombers, but unclear for Russian ones, but my guess is it's not too far off. This source (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250601-ukraine-says-it-...) says $2B for the planes alone, but then you also had the airbases &c, and maybe a submarine base <https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/major-explosion-hits-russian...>. I'd still expect it to be a bit exaggerated for propaganda effects, but it does seem reasonable all in all.

linearithmic•8mo ago

Possible, but seems high to me. I'm not sure if those planes were really destroyed or just damaged. My knee-jerk estimate would be somewhere in the hundreds of millions. Still a very successful operation by Ukraine though.

AnimalMuppet•8mo ago

The explosions seem to have blown one wing off of the planes. That's not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild. I suspect that it's a factory-only level of rebuild, but I don't actually know.

It's at least months to years before they're operation again, or years to decades until the factory can make that many new ones.

NunoSempere•8mo ago

> not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild

> months to years before they're operation again

Good point!