Subtitle: 'The leading expert on its nuclear program, David Albright, sizes up the progress of Israel’s military campaign.'
'As Israel’s mission to destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity continues, a grave and obvious question confronts us: How did the West, the U.S. in particular, allow Tehran’s nuclear threat to grow unchecked for so long?
David Albright, an American physicist and nuclear-weapons tracker, is among the world’s foremost experts on Iran’s nuclear program. He’s president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a nonprofit, nonpartisan institution that focuses on the spread of nuclear weapons to rogue nations and terrorists. On June 12, the day before the first Israeli attack, Iran could “make enough weapon-grade uranium for 11 nuclear weapons within a month,” Mr. Albright says. Pre-attack Iran was on track to have enough highly enriched uranium for 22 weapons in five months.
Israel’s continued pounding of Iranian sites has degraded Iran’s capabilities. But the damage’s extent will take many days to establish, and the threat from Iran isn’t remotely contained. Mr. Albright’s “worst-case assessment” is that Iran could “still break out and produce enough weapon-grade uranium at Fordow”—the clandestine enrichment facility deep under a mountain south of Tehran—“for a nuclear weapon in several days. I do not know how much of the current stock of 60% uranium has been destroyed by Israel. If most of it is still in Iranian hands, then Fordow could make enough weapon-grade uranium for nine nuclear weapons within a month, assuming it continues to operate.”
Iran could still have enough for 15 weapons in five months. But there’s also some reassurance: Iran’s “overall breakout capability,” he says, “has been degraded because of the loss of Natanz,” its largest enrichment facility, which Israel struck on June 13.'
Bostonian•3h ago
Subtitle: 'The leading expert on its nuclear program, David Albright, sizes up the progress of Israel’s military campaign.'
'As Israel’s mission to destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity continues, a grave and obvious question confronts us: How did the West, the U.S. in particular, allow Tehran’s nuclear threat to grow unchecked for so long?
David Albright, an American physicist and nuclear-weapons tracker, is among the world’s foremost experts on Iran’s nuclear program. He’s president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a nonprofit, nonpartisan institution that focuses on the spread of nuclear weapons to rogue nations and terrorists. On June 12, the day before the first Israeli attack, Iran could “make enough weapon-grade uranium for 11 nuclear weapons within a month,” Mr. Albright says. Pre-attack Iran was on track to have enough highly enriched uranium for 22 weapons in five months.
Israel’s continued pounding of Iranian sites has degraded Iran’s capabilities. But the damage’s extent will take many days to establish, and the threat from Iran isn’t remotely contained. Mr. Albright’s “worst-case assessment” is that Iran could “still break out and produce enough weapon-grade uranium at Fordow”—the clandestine enrichment facility deep under a mountain south of Tehran—“for a nuclear weapon in several days. I do not know how much of the current stock of 60% uranium has been destroyed by Israel. If most of it is still in Iranian hands, then Fordow could make enough weapon-grade uranium for nine nuclear weapons within a month, assuming it continues to operate.”
Iran could still have enough for 15 weapons in five months. But there’s also some reassurance: Iran’s “overall breakout capability,” he says, “has been degraded because of the loss of Natanz,” its largest enrichment facility, which Israel struck on June 13.'