This article features 8 "imagines" that are vague and feature common misconceptions about reality. These misconceptions include the illusion that things scale undefinitely (they don't), that breakthroughs are roughly the same level of difficulty at every step (they aren't), and so on.
> Now, imagine if all of those developments were instead compressed into the decade after 1925.
> Imagine if those changes, too, accelerated tenfold.
> Now imagine all the scientific, intellectual and technological developments that you would expect to see by the year 2125.
> imagine all of those developments occurring over the course of just ten years
> In our conservative scenario, we’ll imagine that AI capabilities reach human parity at a time when further scale-ups of training runs are no longer possible
> In our aggressive scenario, we’ll imagine that collective AI capabilities reach human parity soon
> The list above is incomplete. It does not encompass technological developments that we haven’t even imagined
> We should imagine entire industries — networks of automated factories staffed by robots working in the dark
yawpitch•3h ago