Ask HN: How is US entering war affecting your AGI timelines?

2•ozzyphantom•7mo ago

AGI timelines having been altered dramatically since the release of ChatGPT is something everyone on HN is more than familiar with. Will the US entering a potentially lengthy and dramatic war with immense uncertainty affect the onset of AGI?

I can imagine cases for AGI being sped up by the war (AGI becoming even more akin to the Manhattan Project) or being dramatically slowed (because of resources and energy wasted on war or worse...)

I'm curious what everyone thinks, are your timelines longer, shorter, or do you think AGI will be completely unaffected?

(Assume that this situation doesn't blowover in a few weeks/is swifty diplomatically resolved)

Comments

jonahbenton•7mo ago

Unaffected, and AGI is very very far away.

ozzyphantom•7mo ago

Out of curiosity, do you have any numbers in mind when you say "very very far away" or just generally you mean multiple technological paradigms away?

AnimalMuppet•7mo ago

I'm not the guy you're asking, but I would agree with "multiple technological paradigms away". We don't know how many, and we don't know what they are, and we don't know of any way to attack any of them yet. So that adds up to "very very far away".

baobun•7mo ago

Could you qualify what your definition of "AGI" is for the purpose of this thread?

Are we talking revenue targets, performance on certain tasks, metaphysical properties or something else?

Just to avoid people talking past each other as we do.

X (Twitter) is back with a new X API Pay-Per-Use model

Zlob.h 100% POSIX and glibc compatible globbing lib that is faste and better

Show HN: Deterministic signal triangulation using a fixed .72% variance constant

Scientists Discover Levitating Time Crystals You Can Hold, Defy Newton’s 3rd Law

When Michelangelo Met Titian

Solving NYT Pips with DLX

Baldur's Gate to be turned into TV series – without the game's developers

Interview with 'Just use a VPS' bro (OpenClaw version) [video]

EchoJEPA: Latent Predictive Foundation Model for Echocardiography

Disablling Go Telemetry

Effective Nihilism

The UK government didn't want you to see this report on ecosystem collapse

No 10 blocks report on impact of rainforest collapse on food prices

Seedance 2.0 Is Coming

Show HN: Fitspire – a simple 5-minute workout app for busy people (iOS)

Dexterous robotic hands: 2009 – 2014 – 2025

Interop 2025: A Year of Convergence

JobArena – Human Intuition vs. Artificial Intelligence

Concept Artists Say Generative AI References Only Make Their Jobs Harder

Show HN: PaySentry – Open-source control plane for AI agent payments

Show HN: Moli P2P – An ephemeral, serverless image gallery (Rust and WebRTC)

The Crumbling Workflow Moat: Aggregation Theory's Final Chapter

Pax Historia – User and AI powered gaming platform

Show HN: I built a RAG engine to search Singaporean laws

Scams, Fraud, and Fake Apps: How to Protect Your Money in a Mobile-First Economy

Porting Doom to My WebAssembly VM

Cognitive Style and Visual Attention in Multimodal Museum Exhibitions

Full-Blown Cross-Assembler in a Bash Script

Logic Puzzles: Why the Liar Is the Helpful One

Optical Combs Help Radio Telescopes Work Together