Ask HN: How is US entering war affecting your AGI timelines?

1•ozzyphantom•2h ago

AGI timelines having been altered dramatically since the release of ChatGPT is something everyone on HN is more than familiar with. Will the US entering a potentially lengthy and dramatic war with immense uncertainty affect the onset of AGI?

I can imagine cases for AGI being sped up by the war (AGI becoming even more akin to the Manhattan Project) or being dramatically slowed (because of resources and energy wasted on war or worse...)

I'm curious what everyone thinks, are your timelines longer, shorter, or do you think AGI will be completely unaffected?

(Assume that this situation doesn't blowover in a few weeks/is swifty diplomatically resolved)

Comments

jonahbenton•2h ago

Unaffected, and AGI is very very far away.

ozzyphantom•1h ago

Out of curiosity, do you have any numbers in mind when you say "very very far away" or just generally you mean multiple technological paradigms away?

AnimalMuppet•1h ago

I'm not the guy you're asking, but I would agree with "multiple technological paradigms away". We don't know how many, and we don't know what they are, and we don't know of any way to attack any of them yet. So that adds up to "very very far away".

CF-Shield – An open source tool to protect any website with Cloudflare

Sodalite – Open Source Anonymous Media Downloader

Scientists explore aerosols to weaken tropical storms

Google Cloud's outage wasn't a testing failure but a design flaw

A Dictionary of the Language of Myst's D'ni

You are what you launch: how software became a lifestyle brand

Habit tracking for neurodivergent minds – Habitualy

The Implementation of This Site

AI can't cross this line and we don't know why

But AI has no "I": A phenomenology of intelligence without self

The Future of Personalized Medicine Is Here: KJ's Story

Claude-Code-SDK-Ts

WWDC25: What's New in Passkeys [video]

Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

Former Tesla owner: Here's what went wrong with my Tesla

Gemini 2.5 threatening to kill itself after failing to debug your code

Apple defeats AliveCor bid to block US smartwatch imports in US appeal

Carts of Darkness (2008) [video]

The Downside of Diversity

All the Little Data

Finding a billion factorials in 60 ms with SIMD

The Disney Bomb

Jony Ive Deal Removed from OpenAI Site over Trademark Suit

AI Tools for Hedge Funds

Show HN: Lego Island Playable in the Browser

Why Doctors Hate Their Computers (2018)

Steven Pinker's five-point plan to save Harvard from itself (2023)

Yah This Is C#

Scientists find three years left of remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C

Hawaii Highways