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2025 Iberia Blackout Report [pdf]

https://media.licdn.com/dms/document/media/v2/D4D1FAQGcyyYYrelkNg/feedshare-document-pdf-analyzed/B4DZeBtlohGsAk-/0/1750227910090?e=1750896000&v=beta&t=uEftse3BPsTjdLQ3DmjoVkadhUGqf7-MfYj_6UnSS28
83•leymed•4h ago

Comments

fuoqi•2h ago
>Given the timing of this drop in solar generation, in the middle of the production ramp-up and without any meteorological phenomena to explain it, the most plausible explanation is that it is due to market reasons (prices)

>These changes in production can be significant (if the price signals from the markets are sufficiently strong) and affect the energy flows in the networks and the stresses in the nodes

>Regarding the correlation between changes in generation and voltage: if the generation operating at power factor falls (with the existing regulation, the renewable generation), there is a decrease in the reactive energy absorbed by these installations (since it is reduced proportionally to the reduction in generation). Additionally, as the energy transmitted by the networks decreases due to this reduction in generation, the capacitive effects of the electrical circuits increase as they become more discharged, which causes an increase in reactive energy. Both effects (higher reactive power production by the circuits and lower reactive power absorption) push the voltages upwards.

As expected, renewables played the leading role in destabilization of the grid which led to the collapse. Of course, these instabilities could be worked around on the grid level using various (not cheap) measures, so you may argue that it's not renewables' "fault", but the fact still stands: above the certain threshold of renewable generation the current grid architecture becomes increasingly unstable.

I wrote exactly about it in this comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43831523 and its child comment, but the fans of renewables just flagged it.

matsemann•1h ago
But the quote literally spells out it was market forces, not some instability in solar generation?

Your other comment probably got flagged because it started with a huge straw man and had multiple unwarranted jabs in it.

fuoqi•1h ago
Temporary negative prices have been caused by the renewable generation which exceeded the grid demand at the time, which then evolved into the nasty feedback loop caused by the reaction of renewable generation to those conditions. You simply do not get such situation with traditional generation, it's the direct consequence of the intermittent nature of renewables and its high ratio in the total generation.

Also, have you read after the market part? Please watch this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7G4ipM2qjfw if the last quote is gibberish to you. It discusses somewhat different issues, but the point still stands.

pkilgore•38m ago
Where is the market for someone to get paid to pump water into a reservoir and let it fall down later for $$$?
shakow•1h ago
True, but the market moves fast because renewables (or, more precisely, wind & solar) move fast.

There is not much fast trading to be done on a nuke/gas/coal/hydro powerplant ramping up or down, but there is a lot of instability (and thus market volatility) to be found in fast varying solar/wind conditions.

wavefunction•1h ago
You quoted

>the most plausible explanation is that it is due to market reasons (prices)

Seems to be market conditions or manipulations or inefficiencies in the market.

pdpi•1h ago
What I'm reading from that quote is that the issue wasn't renewables as such, but an issue of power generation reacting too quickly and too intensely to price fluctuations. "Renewables" only matter insofar as they're the sort of generation that, under the current regulatory regime, get to react to those pricing changes.
baq•1h ago
The report goes to great lengths to avoid certain words or phrases. The market failed here, it didn’t price in risk of grid collapse correctly.
Yeask•53m ago
That is a simple and great explanation.
fuoqi•1h ago
See the sibling comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44360082
baq•1h ago
Should’ve said ‘not enough spinning mass’ and it’d be perfectly fine for the politically correct and mean the same thing. This was highlighted as a risk for years and it finally materialized.
philipkglass•1h ago
According to the operator report linked in another comment by leymed [1], the problem was not a lack of spinning mass (inertia) but voltage instability. From page 16 of the PDF:

The incident was NOT caused by a lack of system inertia. Rather, it was triggered by a voltage issue and the cascading disconnection of renewable generation plants, as previously indicated. Higher inertia would have only resulted in a slightly slower frequency decline. However, due to the massive generation loss caused by voltage instability, the system would still have been unrecoverable.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44360052

baq•48m ago
Obviously I’m as good of a grid operator as I was a stealth bomber expert on the weekend, but superficially that just doesn’t seem right. Maybe I’m underestimating how much spinning mass would be required, but that still qualifies as ‘not enough was present’.
tofflos•1h ago
It's a difficult read.

Cybersecurity and digital systems was not the issue but gets thirteen pages of proposed measures. I feel this could have been left out.

Electric System Operation was the issue and gets seven pages of proposed measures.

leymed•1h ago
Check this shorter report by the operator:

https://d1n1o4zeyfu21r.cloudfront.net/WEB_Incident_%2028A_Sp...

AnotherGoodName•1h ago
Reads very similar to some blackouts we had in Australia. Weakly connected grids with vast geographical distances leading to oscillations that took down the grid.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_South_Australian_blackout

Completely solved with lithium based grid storage at key locations btw. This grid storage has also been massively profitable for it's owners https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Power_Reserve#Revenu...

Australia currently has 4 of the 5 largest battery storage systems under construction as a result of this profit opportunity; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_energy_storage_system#...

You can also read numerous stories of how Australia's lithium ion grid storage systems have prevented blackouts in many cases. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-big-battery-south-australia-... The fact is that the batteries responsiveness is the fastest of any system at correcting gaps like this. 50/60hz is nothing for a lithium ion battery nor are brief periods of multi-gigawatt draw/dumping as needed.

There's even articles that if Europe investing in battery storage systems like Australia they'd have avoided this. https://reneweconomy.com.au/no-batteries-no-flexibility-spai...

londons_explore•1h ago
> nor are brief periods of multi-gigawatt draw/dumping as needed.

Actually this is typically an issue for grid batteries.

Spinning generators can easily briefly go to 10x the rated current for a second or so to smooth out big anomalies.

Stationary batteries inverters can't do 10x current spikes ever - the max they can get to is more like 1.2x for a few seconds.

That means you end up needing a lot of batteries to provide the same spinning reserve as one regular power station.

AnotherGoodName•1h ago
Collectively Australia's battery storage systems will be able to beat any single power plant for peak output in Australia once fully built out based on pure numbers. But for these sorts of grid oscillations the more important thing is the localization of generation. Which obviously favours the batteries over large centralized power stations in any case.
giantg2•1h ago
Seems like pumped hydro offers a nice compromise.
AnotherGoodName•1h ago
Fwiw the hornsdale battery linked above cost AUD$172 million and can provide 2000MW of equivalent inertia. Link: https://www.energymagazine.com.au/sa-approves-world-first-ba...

That equivalent inertia can only be done for short periods but that's exactly what grids need in stability - there's generally no lack of total generation, just a need to jump in and smooth out spikes.

You can't build a dam for that price, nor could you do it in under 100 days from contract signing as that battery was built. Batteries are definitely the answer here. The 'more spinning mass' answers don't make sense since Australia literally solved the above problem in a much cheaper way already.

giantg2•43m ago
You don't need to build a dam, you just need the pipes and pumps for an existing dam (or elevated natural basin).
ajross•6m ago
That... doesn't sound correct. Inverters are the cheap part, you can literally wire as many as you want in parallel. Batteries have immense power availability, with most chemistries you can trivially deliver the entire capacity in half an hour or so (more like 5 minutes with lithium cells).

Basically I'm dubious. I'm sure there are grids somewhere that have misprovisioned their inverter capacity, but I don't buy that battery facilities are inherently unable to buffer spikes. Is there a cite I can read?

rcarmo•1h ago
Page 130 is where the actual human readable summary is. Although the previous pages were pretty detailed in explaining the cumulative instabilities.

Sadly, some news outlets are probably only going to look at the recommendations and read "cybersecurity" and (even though they are common sense recommendations) assume there might be more to say about the matter.

decimalenough•1h ago
Don't worry, some news outlets will summarize this as "renewables = bad" regardless of what the report actually says.

Oh wait, they already did: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/18/renewable-en...

Ed: Do I need a /s tag here or something? My point was that we shouldn't worry too much about about the presentation of the report, its actual contents will be spun to suit any narrative regardless.

baq•38m ago
Flame bait journalism is one of the things you can count on in any circumstance. If you replace that ‘renewables = bad’ with ‘politicians = idiots’ OTOH… sometimes the elected representatives should listen to unelected physicists and engineers. Grid stuff is one of those things.
decimalenough•1h ago
> Non-confidential version of the report of the committee for the analysis of the circumstances surrounding the electricity crisis of the April 28, 2025

Now I'm curious about what's in the confidential version of the report.

londons_explore•1h ago
Based on the redacted bits, it is mostly company names and locations.
londons_explore•1h ago
It doesn't look like this report really identifies the root causes...

I would like to see: "We have simulated the complete 200 and 400 kV grid of the iberian peninsula and western europe, and can reproduce the situation that occurred. Any one of the following changes would have prevented the issue, and we suggest implementing them all for redundancy. This simulation will be re-run every day from now on to identify future cases similar incidents could occur"

baq•1h ago
The engineers knew exactly what’s going to happen, the report is politically redacted. Very unfortunate, but completely expected.
JanneVee•1h ago
When skimming through the report I got to think of the oscillation problem in RIP routing protocol. Although it isn't the same thing, but it shows the complexity of the problem to anyone who thinks there is a single solution to it.
gred•41m ago
Why so many pages of "Recommendation: implement multi-factor authentication" and other IT security irrelevancies? Did they need to pad out the number of pages?
diggan•38m ago
> In the systems with network traffic evaluation probes, no records consistent with unauthorized activity have been observed, such as lateral movements, network traces or file movements for vulnerability exploitation or privilege escalation, among others.

> However, as is common in networks and information systems in any sector, other risks have been identified, such as vulnerabilities, deficiencies or inadequate configurations of security measures, which may expose networks and systems to potential risks, for which a series of measures are proposed.

diggan•38m ago
Seems the money shot starts at page 131:

> The ultimate cause of the peninsular electrical zero on April 28th was a phenomenon of overvoltages in the form of a "chain reaction" in which high voltages cause generation disconnections, which in turn causes new increases in voltage and thus new disconnections, and so on.

> 1. The system showed insufficient dynamic voltage control capabilities sufficient to maintain stable voltage

> 2. A series of rhythmic oscillations significantly conditioned the system, modifying its configuration and increasing the difficulties for voltage stabilization.

If I understand it correctly (and like software, typical), it was a positive feedback-loop. Since there wasn't enough voltage control, some other station had to be added but got overloaded instead, also turning off, and then on to the next station.

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