Hilarious.
1. The Exploration Company builds shuttles, not launchers
2. The US had to rely on Russian shuttles for decades after the Challenger drama
Space is hard and sarcasm not useful.
the US picked an entirely different set of constraints and thus dominated the past decades with ease.
the EU on the other hand, handles and will handle millions of refugees to come, pay for their education and it will be imperative to expand the job markets. and industries.
this should, theoretically, within 10 years, "change the game" again.
"European", "US", "Asian" is just a sponsorship tag with the teams, hardware and knowledge supply chains being globalised anyway, if I am not wrong.
That sounds simplistic. They each have vastly different governance principles and philosophical views about the economy.
"SpaceX required [..] nearly $3 billion [..] The Exploration Company would require a similar amount [..] It is not possible to raise that money from private capital markets right now by promising a great return a decade from now."
In other words: All the investors are looking for a quick buck. Nobody is willing to invest into the longer-term future anymore.
SpaceX raised private capital. It continues to raise private capital. (It still tapped into public coffers for Crew Dragon, though, because the demand side of that market remains entirely public.)
It could do this because NASA had committed to the Artemis programme. That’s the demand. ESA has no similar promise of returns for a private backer; giving money to these guys strikes closer to a grant or donation than investment.
Of course one can. Those plans could change. But they were set and funded and that inertia appears to be saving them [1].
ESA has nothing similar planned. (Beyond collaboration [2].)
[1] https://yellowhammernews.com/u-s-senate-directive-would-revi...
[2] https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-european-space-agency...
that's a myth
you are confusing liquidity with other aspects of investing. name the biggest companies on the stock exchanges, they've been around for many years, and are expected to be around many more years. That's long term investing.
liquidity means that any particular investor can change their own personal priorities and get out of the long term play in the short term. You want to buy a house with your money, that's ok, the projects you've been invested in can soldier on without you.
if a new company with no track record of making money wants to tie up your investment while showing no results for a decade or more, you yourself would probably be unwilling to invest, because there are many alternative investments that give you liquidity and show results regularly.
But then, how can anyone finance a start-up that takes a bit longer to build than the usual web mitm or web advertising play?
Companies offering long-term prospects definitely fill a need.
or are they trying to prove that the EU isn't willing "to adequately do space stuff"?
the US grabbed a top robotics company from the EU because the EU apparently refuses to evolve the game based on the rule set they created and CEOs are complaining about too much regulation instead of working with the constraints.
the US reduced constraints to an absolute minimum and, without question, got much farther than European companies but there is zero chance they can handle all the future load without becoming dependent on Chinese supply chains, or is there? and so they need to drive EU spending and European competition in order to drive the creation of European supply chains, in order to keep the markets diverse and incentivise the EU to strengthen their game on the African continent.
I'm out of the loop and mostly guessing ... a lot of middle class Germans are about to be 3rd, 4th, 5th generations heirs, ascending into the 1% and they will have the liquidity to build and expand 3D printing companies in all industries, including metal and construction and German universities are up to speed and I assume other European countries aren't too far behind.
then there is the whole 'Wiederaufbau' of Ukraine in the planning, a country with tech talent and space and now more than present in people's minds, which should additionally drive investments and partnerships aiming at next gen city, civil, construction and space tech.
would love to hear some opionions.
anovikov•7mo ago
notahacker•7mo ago
tekla•7mo ago
pfdietz•7mo ago
boricj•7mo ago
pfdietz•7mo ago
SpaceX has greatly raised the bar on what can be considered an "independent launch capability." Europe under the current system is greatly limited on what they can imagine doing in space. The equivalent of Starlink is not feasible, for example.
Underlying all this was a failure of vision, an assumption that use of space would be static and change only slowly, if at all, and that launch cost could not be significantly reduced.
mjevans•7mo ago
For that same matter, maybe that's part of what went wrong with the aircraft manufacturing business in America. The market really should not have been allowed to consolidate that much; to the point where incentives aligned to financial and regulatory capture / stasis (and pilots only certified on one type of flight vehicle), rather than someone skilled to operate a general aviation vehicle. Though with cars we do have a fairly standardized control scheme, at least for the most important parts. Steering wheel, go and stop foot levers.
metalman•7mo ago
https://www.barnstormers.com/cat_search.php?headline=MIG&bod...
cpgxiii•7mo ago
Consolidation was an inevitable result of the end of the Cold War and massive cuts to defense spending. The defense industry was _encouraged_ to consolidate because the alternative would have been bankruptcy. Obviously, time has shown that this consolidation was bad for the industry and the government, but a lot has happened in the last 35 years that would not have been foreseen then.
> to the point where incentives aligned to financial and regulatory capture / stasis (and pilots only certified on one type of flight vehicle), rather than someone skilled to operate a general aviation vehicle
The type rating structure really has quite little to do with aerospace industry consolidation (if anything, the industry is too fractured to allow for more generic type ratings). Aircraft, their systems, and their flight dynamics are different enough that trying to create a more general type rating would really be impossible. What you do see are families of aircraft which either completely share a type rating or require very limited additional training to maintain a rating for multiple family types (e.g. all 737s, 757/767, 777/787, A32x/A33x/A35x).
Single piston GA aircraft are really the exception, not because they all share the same behavior (there is a truly wild range of flight dynamics and avionics), but because the GA community (particularly in the US) is so large and established that requiring more training/experience is politically impossible. So long as GA accidents don't kill too many bystanders, this will remain the case.
notahacker•7mo ago
NitpickLawyer•7mo ago
I agree with your overall point, but I think the person you replied to has a point as well. The cost of developing F9 is ridiculously low (considering the industry), so it should have been possible to do by any country / group of countries if the cost was the only problem...
> "According to NASA's own independently verified numbers, SpaceX's development costs of both the Falcon 1 and Falcon 9 rockets were estimated at approximately $390 million in total."
lupusreal•7mo ago
notahacker•7mo ago
SpaceX relies on Europe and Taiwan for its semiconductors. Does the fact SpaceX can't be adequately served by domestic capacity and their in-house semiconductor programme is just getting started mean they don't execute?! Or is it just a little thing called trade that Americans used to believe in?
JumpCrisscross•7mo ago
Used and relies on aren’t interchangeable. (To the extent there is reliance, it’s more on Taiwan than Europe.)
notahacker•7mo ago
[1]if Europeans wanting IODs of their reentry capsules for some reason couldn't use SpaceX, ArianeSpace absolutely has the technical ability to take the equivalent to Transporter mission payloads to the same orbits at the same launch cadence (this was the 14th Transporter rideshare mission since 2021), but obviously price-sensitive rideshare customers aren't going to use it whilst US and Indian launches are options, and much cheaper ones. Extra cost might be a dealbreaker for some less well funded space startups, but not for the company we're talking about here...
JumpCrisscross•7mo ago
Cadence and national origin de-commoditise launch.
> the Exploration Company wouldn't struggle to get into space if the Falcon 9 wasn't a thing, it'd just have to pay someone else more
And wait longer. Higher cost, uncertainty and lead times challenge project viability.
> ArianeSpace absolutely has the technical ability to take the equivalent to Transporter mission payloads to the same orbits at the same launch cadence
Arianespace has a negligible fraction of SpaceX’s launch cadence. Europe doesn’t have the ability to build e.g. a LEO constellation with its own rockets, or replace destroyed orbital materiel in a conflict as quickly as China or America can.
notahacker•7mo ago
Don't think high cadence launches are even particularly high on the list of the US's military advantages in the event of global conflict extending into space: destruction of non-trivial amounts of orbital material would render its launch advantage moot until the Kessler syndrome problem was solved...
JumpCrisscross•7mo ago
Irrelevant for rideshare. But ArianeSpace “spin[ning] up an extra couple of missions” is also not ridesharing. Last I checked, you can book a ride on SpaceX faster than anything Ariane.
notahacker•7mo ago
boc•7mo ago
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/ts...
https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm
notahacker•7mo ago
See also European companies and their choice of launch options...
Aeolun•7mo ago
whiplash451•7mo ago
It’s great to see a company blow past the usual reasons mentioned by European naysayers.