This is a great do or die moment. No more belief in the future.
> On generous assumptions, Tesla’s core EV business, generating 75% of gross profit but with falling sales, might be worth roughly $50 per share, only 15% of the current price.
> Much of the remainder relates to expectations around self driving. RBC Capital, for example, ascribes 59% of its price target, or $181 per share, to robotaxis and a further $53 to monetizing Full Self Driving technology. Combined, that is a cool $815 billion based on double-digit multiples ascribed to modeled revenue — not earnings — 10 to 15 years from now because, after all, it relates to businesses that barely make money today.
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>It is obvious that, having mocked rival Waymo LLC’s cautious, city-by-city approach, Tesla is now emulating that as it begins its own operation. As of writing this, there is only one reported incident of a “safety concern” pertaining to a Tesla robotaxi on the City of Austin’s online dashboard. But federal regulators are already looking into instances where Tesla robotaxis appeared to violate traffic laws, captured on video.
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> Meanwhile, the longer Tesla takes, the more time other competitors, like Amazon.com Inc.’s Zoox, have to establish themselves. In a market this new and dynamic, the range of potential outcomes is dizzying. A recent attempt by analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., modeling various fleet sizes and margins on a hypothetical Tesla robotaxi fleet in 2040, spat out values from $2.50 per share up to $81.75. Place your bets.
nabla9•7mo ago
> On generous assumptions, Tesla’s core EV business, generating 75% of gross profit but with falling sales, might be worth roughly $50 per share, only 15% of the current price.
> Much of the remainder relates to expectations around self driving. RBC Capital, for example, ascribes 59% of its price target, or $181 per share, to robotaxis and a further $53 to monetizing Full Self Driving technology. Combined, that is a cool $815 billion based on double-digit multiples ascribed to modeled revenue — not earnings — 10 to 15 years from now because, after all, it relates to businesses that barely make money today.
...
>It is obvious that, having mocked rival Waymo LLC’s cautious, city-by-city approach, Tesla is now emulating that as it begins its own operation. As of writing this, there is only one reported incident of a “safety concern” pertaining to a Tesla robotaxi on the City of Austin’s online dashboard. But federal regulators are already looking into instances where Tesla robotaxis appeared to violate traffic laws, captured on video.
...
> Meanwhile, the longer Tesla takes, the more time other competitors, like Amazon.com Inc.’s Zoox, have to establish themselves. In a market this new and dynamic, the range of potential outcomes is dizzying. A recent attempt by analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., modeling various fleet sizes and margins on a hypothetical Tesla robotaxi fleet in 2040, spat out values from $2.50 per share up to $81.75. Place your bets.