Stagnation comes from an aversion to risk-taking.
I do not know that it is foregone conclusion that slowing birthrates necessarily has to lead to risk aversion.
Second, the obsession with finances is unjustified. What's "enough" to have a child? And will you ever get there? You might hit infertility sooner and then it'll be too late. Having a child is an incredible motivator, because you have a firm and clear and worthy purpose. Your whole life is rearranged, and in a good way. You have descendants and in that sense, you are not alone or the end of the line. When children are a mere possibility, mere phantoms that you hope to afford one day, you won't have the same drive, and it becomes easy to get sidetracked or fall into resignation.
For myself, I think economic anxiety/precarity has been one of the strongest motivators for never wanting children. As I've faced layoffs, I've often thought to myself, "at least I don't have any kids depending on me" and worried for my coworkers who did. It doesn't help that I face some medical issues either.
But I think more than anything, I just don't want to force some poor child into this world/economic system that we have created that I've never really felt comfortable in. I used to think that this made me some kind of strange outlier, but more and more, given that we see ever decreasing fertility, perhaps I was merely early to this feeling.
The decision not to have children is also not especially unique to those in economically precarious situations or those living in poverty. On the contrary, the demographic crisis affects everyone, including a well-off middle class that will have no trouble providing for its children. On top of that, while I support sound pro-natal policies, what we've found is that using financial incentives has very little to no effect on increasing birth rates.
Demographic decline reflects deeper problems in our cultures. We structure our lives in ways that do not respect optimal fertility, putting things off until "we're established in our careers". We define ourselves by what we own. We have a prejudice against large families, associating them with the shame of poverty, misery, backwardness, and a lack of education instead of the great wealth that they are. We have taken individualism to such an extreme that family and community life has taken a huge blow, and with it, the broad social support children would usually grow up with. Children have fewer siblings and fewer cousins to play with and grow up with. We have a dating culture that, instead of functioning as a way to find someone to marry to start a family, is recreational, aimless, and devoid of any desire for commitment. Expectations w.r.t. children that are financially costly lead to thinking that having more children would "deprive" them of a desired standard (this relates to keeping up with the Jones's). And what if you have more than 2 children in close succession? Well, because of safety regulations, you need to buy a larger car, because a basic sedan cannot hold three car seats.
Taken in aggregate, the cultural climate, as well as the attitudes it shapes, is not favorable.
What is most interesting to me is that you said cultures (plural) when saying that we have deeper problems. But according to the article, this has become a nearly universal issue across all cultures of the world; and what force but economic globalization could cause something like that?
This is a good observation. One possibility is that globalism serves as a vector for communicating certain cultural habits. A natural place to look is the US as it has been the primary globalizing force in recent history. American popular culture (TV, cinema), NGOs, the influence of American universities, etc. all serve to spread ideas sell a certain vision of life. It doesn't matter if the ideas are good. These methods appeal to the emotions.
And this is not a bad suspicion, as it seems that the inverse relation between number of children and wealth, when people are otherwise permitted to have children as they wish, seems to be characteristic of consumerist societies.
I doubt that anyone can really say what the cause is at a societal and ultimately global level; I can only really know my own reasons.
The value proposition is simply not compelling.
The point of both freedom and money is to be able to do what is good. Freedom and autonomy and money have no value in themselves; they have only instrumental value. They only enable the good (and money, only specific kinds of goods). They are not sources of happiness per se. So being free to have children is the freedom to pursue the good that are children and of being a parent. Being a parent is meaningful. Freedom, full stop, is not. And money, full stop, is certainly not.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/why-bad-looks-good/2...
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/complete-without-kid...
https://ifstudies.org/blog/does-having-children-make-people-...
Parenthood is very central to our humanity. Fatherhood is a core expression of masculinity while motherhood is a core expression of femininity. Of course, parenthood isn't always expressed by having biological children. In the Catholic Church, for example, priests assume a paternal role in their parishes, while religious sisters often assume a maternal role by becoming teachers or by mentoring young novices. In such cases, such people choose to sacrifice their biological parenthood for the sake of a worthy good, and here, a parental role that isn't biological. Pathological expressions of the subconscious parental desire can be seen when people treat their pets like children (like those women who push their dogs around in strollers and pamper them in obscene ways).
However, in a healthy society, most people will choose to have biological children. The outliers do not disprove the general. And the fact that so many people are actively choosing not to have children is a sign of cultural decadence and decline.
When you speak of "autonomy", what is this "experience" of the one life you have in mind? Being a parent is, of course, such an experience, and not just one of many you can choose from, but an experience that is deeply central to being human. That so many are choosing not to have children is not the result of some spiritual awakening where they are choosing to sacrifice having children for some worthy noble end. The argument from autonomy is really an argument from self-indulgence. The objective richness and centrality of parenthood to human life is typically traded by such people for a life of pointless and empty "experiences", or lesser goods. By hiding behind "autonomy" and some relativized notion of preference, parenthood becomes as banal as choosing a flavor of ice cream, which it isn't.
No one is forced to have children, and no one in particular needs to have them, but as I said earlier, when a culture is healthy, most people will choose to have them. That so many are choosing not to is not a matter of choosing chocolate over vanilla, but usually, it is a matter of trivializing one's life by choosing comfort, self-indulgence, and the avoidance of responsibility and commitment. These stand in the way of a voracious, egotistical autonomy. But such autonomy does not make us grow as human beings. It stifles our development, feeds narcissism, and imagines us and our appetites as the center of the universe. In the end, it is a dehumanizing recipe for unhappiness and misery. So the basic problem is not firstly the falling statistic, but the narcissistic attitude engendered by vacuous hyperindividualism.
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/545397/empty-planet... (“Once a woman receives enough information and autonomy to make an informed and self-directed choice about when to have children, and how many to have, she immediately has fewer of them, and has them later.”)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... | https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2 ("Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come.")
https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-... ("Our World in Data: What explains the declining fertility rate?")
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68402139 ("Why South Korean women aren't having babies: The reason women are not having children now is because they have the courage to talk about it. ... But Minji says she is grateful she has agency. "We are the first generation who get to choose. Before it was a given, we had to have children. And so we choose not to because we can.")
Sadly, I suspect that comforting assumption will prove horribly wrong.
Nah. Robots. AI. Economic growth will do the opposite of that.
littlexsparkee•7mo ago