I do think that the US is badly mishandling its relationship with China, but it is a deliberate choice, not an oversight.
What would we be doing if we had more focus?
you see that area of Manchuria, where is now Vladivostok and Khabarovsk? Yep that was China. And they are eager to take it back.
Interesting object lesson in how slow motion disasters unfold.
People in the west in general fail to understand the fundamental cultural underpinnings that guide Chinese (and largely Russian as well) behaviour on the global stage, causing them to badly miscalculate their steps. (I am not claiming to have special insight myself, only to observe the obvious misalignment of perceptions and incentives)
China, in particular, seems to me to be tightly wedged between several acute pressures in this situation.
I agree invading Ukraine in 2022 was extreme miscalculation on Russian side. West is now only pouring a little bit of money and weapons just to keep that Ukrainian potato too hot to swallow by Russian mouth. Who could have expected that this keeps going for 3 years with Russia losing essentially its all accumulated military inheritance from USSR time to get what? Few fields in Eastern Ukraine? From perspective of so called West, this is an unexpected strategic victory while doing essentially nothing.
I dearly hope that Europe and the American people will be generous and invest heavily in Ukrainian reconstruction, welcome them into NATO, and help them to prosper from the incredible military legacy they are building with the blood of their people.
One thing that seems sure, the west will keep spoon feeding weapons in only as fast as Russian assets are destroyed. Every bullet costs a spoonful of Ukrainian blood, I only hope that the eventual victory will be worthwhile.
If Russia stops attacking, Russia and Ukraine get to both say they won the war to their own people.
They either quit and say they won, or they sign up for a century of IEDs in Moscow. It was stupid to create a failed state that is a direct neighbor.
If that's true, Russia winning the war isn't acceptable to China either. Sadly for Ukraine, I suspect a long war that gradually bleeds Russia dry is the ideal outcome for most of the large players.
rzzzwilson•7mo ago