The formula is so consistent: cherry-pick some disappointments, interpret any pivot as retreat, claim the hype is unsustainable, predict imminent collapse, position yourself as the sober realist. Rinse and repeat every 6-12 months, adjusting the timeline when the previous prediction fails to materialize.
alganet•7mo ago
His prediction of self-driving cars being a fiasco does not need any adjustment, and it stands after 7 years.
JLO64•7mo ago
Living in LA where there are plenty of Waymo cars constantly driving around, I strongly disagree with that.
ctoth•7mo ago
alganet•7mo ago
JLO64•7mo ago
alganet•7mo ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo#Robotaxis
LA has more than 6,000,000 cars.
That is how strong you can disagree with me. 400 out of 6,000,000. And I'm being kind by considering just LA.
joak•7mo ago
Ten doublings is 1000x
alganet•7mo ago
So far, the prediction made in 2018 stands. Self-driving car companies lose money, and are a fiasco.
Maybe that will change in the future, but that's the future. We'll talk about that then.