I've been curious to know how well games can succeed (measured by the gaining of followers and wishlists) when participating Steam's NextFest. So, I took a look into the data and provided an analysis for the curious like me to view and make educated assumptions.

Some interesting stats I've discovered: - 1 in 10 games 5x their follower count - 60% of games did not achieve 100+ followers by the end of NextFest - Out of the 2582 games analyzed the median wishlists gained is 336 - Sports games got the highest growth and has the lowest market saturation

If you're releasing a game on Steam and can participate, you should. There's a high chance it will give you visibility to gain some additional wishlists before your launch. The chances of getting a lot of wishlists is 1 in 10, that's 10%.

Having participated in the past and feeling defeated by my expectation, if game making is a hobby set the expectation of gaining wishlist realistic (maybe even lower than that) to keep the positive vibes of a good outcome to help give you the momentum to finish your game. If this is your primary income, it's important to understand your market and competition to know what players want and what they're currently interesting in, but (if you're reading) you already know this :)