Tell HN: My 3 competitors are all super polished companies run by solo devs

7•gametorch•7mo ago

I'm a solo developer that runs a small AI startup in the game development industry.

The demand is good. After initial marketing, I've seen a lot of organic growth. I get 3-5 new paying customers per day without doing anything. I'm crossing 300 signups soon.

I quickly ran into competitors building the same exact product. These looked like super polished, well-established companies. The websites look nice. The engineering looks solid.

As far as I can tell, they're all run by individual solo developers, too.

I built my entire startup with o3. I already considered myself a good engineer. I think I shipped 2-3x faster than ever before, when building this startup, due to AI. It seems that other developers are exhibiting similar gains.

How long until the first 1-person $100m company? I would bet it happens in 2026. Maybe even 2025.

Comments

mosdl•7mo ago

Once the person makes their 100m company, 10 competitors will undercut them by using AI to duplicate the work.

byoung2•7mo ago

It would make sense to build that $100M company in a vertical where the first-mover advantage is a significant moat

gametorch•7mo ago

That's the double-edged sword aspect of AI: these models are commodities so you can expect to very cheaply build almost anything out of code as the price of code generation gets driven down to zero through competition. But so can anyone else.

byoung2•7mo ago

Exactly...so if anyone can generate the app in a few days, you've got to find a vertical where you sign up everyone first and lock them in. Then the. next 10 competitors who generate the same app won't be able to get your customers.

mosdl•7mo ago

And first mover usually requires a lot of money to secure (ads, etc) so basically the person who gets the most vc or is already rich will win.

blinkbat•7mo ago

"I built my entire startup with o3."

including security? auth? database design?

gametorch•7mo ago

I dictate all the database schema so it can one-shot the rest of the tedious nonsense, like analogous struct types, db getters and setters, etc.

I basically just architect the solutions and it implements it for me.

blinkbat•7mo ago

and regarding security?

gametorch•7mo ago

yep but I triple checked it, of course

I also had two different LLMs audit the codebase pre launch and once every so often.

blinkbat•7mo ago

and you consider yourself well-versed enough in security to spot check it? just making sure.

gametorch•7mo ago

lol what is your deal? you're not my dad

blinkbat•7mo ago

consider that I might have your best interest in mind when I recommend taking steps to ensure a mediocre script kid cannot bring down your AI-generated, spot-checked infra.

gametorch•7mo ago

consider that I'm an engineer with decades of experience and I've thought about this too

bigyabai•7mo ago

We're also considering that you've submit this product to HN several times without much serious traction.

It's very possible that you are focusing on the wrong features, which enables solo devs to out-compete your product with simple changes. Unless your offering is unique or superior, it will almost certainly lose out to the rest of the market. This kind of market dilution will stop you from attaining $10,000 MRR, let alone a $100m valuation.

gametorch•7mo ago

I have gotten serious traction. I hit the front page of Reddit multiple times and people are signing up to pay me while I sleep.

I am well on my way to $10k MRR. I am already cash-flow positive.

People would rather drag you down in the hole that they're in than climb out themselves.

bigyabai•7mo ago

> I am well on my way to $10k MRR.

Your own stats page refutes this.

gametorch•7mo ago

How? Show me the numbers.

Within one month of launching I'm already less than one order of magnitude away from that MRR.

Why are you so obsessed with how my business is doing?

bigyabai•7mo ago

> I'm already less than one order of magnitude away from that MRR.

Might as well email Mark Cuban then, sounds like you're a surefire hit.

gametorch•7mo ago

I just don't understand where this attack is coming from? What did I do? I have nothing against you

bigyabai•7mo ago

1. You're lying for flattery, which isn't a good start in the business world. I've seen healthy balance sheets before, you don't need to pretend you're holding all the cards. Trust is more fungible than cooked books.

2. You're using HN (repeatedly) for self-promotion and ought to be prepared for the responses this site will garner your product. This isn't natural propagation of your business, it is first-party advertising orchestrated by you.

3. The product you have made is a nothingburger and I guarantee it won't exist in 3 years' time. If you lack the foresight to acknowledge that, then I look forward to the related Tell HN posts detailing the struggles you face.

gametorch•7mo ago

> You're lying for flattery

Just straight up slander. I asked for specific numbers and you refuse.

Wishing you well.

bigyabai•7mo ago

For future reference, don't conflate "well on my way" with "an order of magnitude off" in the company of people who can read a spreadsheet.

It's good to hear that you're not doing it for flattery, though. I'll keep commenting if you continue promoting your product like this. Au revoir!

gametorch•7mo ago

I'll continue to do whatever the hell I want.

I consider the first month a huge success to get in that order of magnitude, certainly "well on its way."

See you in three years. I'll reach out.

zdw•7mo ago

Does it generate all of the DB interface code bespoke, or leverage an ORM?

gametorch•7mo ago

Just raw SQL queries via the rust sqlx crate.

I think ORM is harmful in 2025.

In rust, you can get compile-time SQL syntax and type validation; it won't compile if the corresponding columns, tables, etc. don't exist.

Combine that with LLMs generating the code for you and it's pointless to use an ORM.

ORMs are insanely opaque and prone to horrible bugs and performance losses that are completely avoidable now, imho.

theGeatZhopa•7mo ago

a bit unrealistic and unserious to ask such questions, as one never know how the customer will behave. Just imagine, that another one start the exact same thing, but do, for example, faster & better support - because it's not a one man show. And then? then you'll see better marketing, because there's a sales & marketing professional employed, you see better & faster feature development. Etc...

In my life, its not as long that I can fill each discussion, I've seen quite a few situations, where I said "thats it. Thats an perfect idea no one have had before" -> nope. Each one turned out to be not as good as I thought and, I wasn't the only one who came up with that... My experience tell me, you need a differentiator. You have to solve a pain, but the medicine must be better than of your competitors.

In your case, I would rather say "if the others, like you, are really solo-interpreneurs and do exactly the same thing as you do. Then it will be ok, as long none of the others start to invest heavily in marketing with a dedicated marketing department. That will be the differentiator that might break your neck."

Stop dreamin, reinvest the gains and employ some people to bring your business to a new level. Don't risk it without necessities. Dont slow down your pace with "principles". My opinion.

I may be wrong, but I'm a different risk profile. I like to have everything under control. What is your risk taking capabilities?

may be, this will be some kind of inspiration. That guy build and sold for 100mio as a solo:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AR2H7X1HBEM

theGeatZhopa•7mo ago

who can't stand the truth and downvotes? some vibe coders? Or is it O3 doing it, because it doesn't like? I have a suspicion :)

byoung2•7mo ago

How are your customers finding you?

gametorch•7mo ago

Reddit, Google, X, and LLMs referring me

mathiaspoint•7mo ago

Yeah my theory is that we'll soon see the end of massive tech companies. The size is more a liability than an asset now.

alganet•7mo ago

Have you considered the possibility that 1 million similar companies worth $100 each will appear?

I know nothing about product, but think how many people could have done it with the same tools as you.

gametorch•7mo ago

I think you have a super good point.

Cost of anything that is purely driven by code is falling like a rock now.

I don't have an answer to this question. I don't have an answer to the moat question.

Best guess is some sort of "network/platform value" upon which you deliver the commoditized output of a model.

alganet•7mo ago

I know nothing about moat or network or anything like that. This is basic stuff.

People have money. People use money to buy things. Money is limited. It can move, and shift, but not grow. People earn X and will spend a portion of that on stuff on different things.

If there's a lot of similar competitors of similar cost and quality, they'll share the money pool (what people are willing to spend on your kind of thing).

AI is, therefore, irrelevant. It drives your costs down, but it also drives the cost down for everyone. Any competitor can use it to achieve similar results. If you base your production on it, you get no edge.

What can you do that is unique and you can offer to your potential customers?

msgodel•7mo ago

Code was always cheap, anyone could write it and it's really not hard to learn. I don't think LLMs change that.

alganet•7mo ago

> Code was always cheap

It is more correct to say that cheap code always had a large supply compared to expensive code, and LLMs haven't changed that.

Expensive code, though, is expensive. LLMs also haven't changed that.

Expensive code accurately and efficiently encapsulates knowledge. There is no horizon for humans getting rid of this need.

byoung2•7mo ago

An app like an AI resume customizer based on job description will quickly devolve into a million clones. Something with a network and a first-mover advantage would have some staying power even if people clone it. For example an app where you post a job description and it sets up an AI voice agent as a virtual employee ready to be onboarded. once you have thousands of of virtual employees with company email addresses and attending zoom meetings, it will be hard for clones to break into that vertical

alganet•7mo ago

Quality and low cost are the hardest things to clone. It's really not about features.

Ideally, you want a lot of clones, but all of them more expensive or inferior quality than you.

That's something that can beat any first-mover advantage.

ezekg•7mo ago

"I have this million dollar app idea, I just need somebody to build it."

Nothing new under the sun.

tuesdaynight•7mo ago

I believe that solo founders will have way more leverage than today. At the same time, I find it paradoxical how the people that say these things have the most simple idea, that could be copied in a weekend, to show as example. Founders with great ideas, domain knowledge and money to do marketing will make a lot of difference. The diary that I created using AI to fit my taste? Everybody can copy that code in days.

tom_m•7mo ago

Your business isn't the code. It's a combination of things, but you can't just expect to write some code and go win. You have to sell it. Market it. Maintain it. Listen to customers. Support customers.

A very long time until a 1-person unicorn. For good reason. You need a lot more than software. Even if you say oh well AI can also automate marketing and customer support, etc. Bulls---. Only to a degree.

You want to know why Facebook was successful while others weren't? Or why people couldn't just copy them? It's not the software.

gaws•7mo ago

> I get 3-5 new paying customers per day without doing anything. I'm crossing 300 signups soon.

> I already considered myself a good engineer.

> I built my entire startup with o3.

> How long until the first 1-person $100m company?

Truly grim stuff.

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Tell HN: My 3 competitors are all super polished companies run by solo devs

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