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The Texas Flooding Tragedy: Could It Have Been Avoided?

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-texas-flooding-tragedy-could-it.html
24•georgecmu•2h ago

Comments

actionfromafar•2h ago
https://www.reddit.com/r/TexasPolitics/comments/1ltnjf8/we_h...
vintagedave•1h ago
This is a lot for someone to wade through, especially non-American. I dislike those HN posts with AI content, but I did ask an AI to summarise and explain (culturally and geographically) what I was reading. Maybe it will help others.

https://chatgpt.com/share/686cfd32-f578-800e-997b-1fbee9c185...

VMG•1h ago
I found the summary valuable.
happymellon•58m ago
Reading this just reminds me that you need to be involved in local politics if you want change.

They voted against building an early warning system because, as one person put it the money coming from FEMA was:

> Resident 2: And I'm here to ask this Court today to send this money back to the Biden administration, which I consider to be the most criminal treasonous communist government ever to hold the White House.

These are the gibbering idiots that will represent you. Biden wasn't even the most "Communist Government" of the previous 10 years.

Not entirely sure (as an outsider) what makes him Communist outside of not throwing Sieg Hiels when he was elected.

andrewl•8m ago
For a lot of these people the term Communist is basically a synonym for sick or evil. I have seen very extreme people using Communist and homosexual interchangeably as terms for what they consider immorality. "They're homosexual, communists trying to destroy America." "It's a Jewish, homosexual agenda." "What about Senator John Smith's wife?" "She's a homosexual, too."
consumer451•37m ago
Wow, that is incredibly infuriating. Truly politics above all else. The political brainwashing there seems to be entirely complete.

How would one even begin to undo that level of programming?

metalman•1h ago
No.These types of things are unavoidable. The full risk profile of our planet is immpossible to determine. Should some great portion of the risk profile be determined, it will cover essentialy everywhere. Even reducing it to stuff with a fractional percentage of a disaster per year will be forbiding. And there is absolutly no way to impliment a country wide action and response network that does not end up running everything through the all powerfull department of saftey, which is politicaly and practicaly immpossible.

bottom land is always, flat, near water, productive, with many other resources on the hills and in the river, and then occasionaly, a trap

Just telling people not to live on fucking flood plains, goes nowhere......it is a perenial recuring problem that is so common and ancient that it has been recognised by archiologists, that humans have exploited the resources in river valleys, built there settlements, and then denuded all of the vegitation, and then blam, a flood, and there settlement gets instantly burried, bad for then, awsome for archiologists who find all there stuff, in water logged soil, interesting organic artifacts are often in "perfect" condition.

blackbear_•1h ago
> these types of things are unavoidable

The floodings or the tragedies?

> The full risk profile of our planet is impossible to determine

Was this really necessary to avoid this specific tragedy?

Eddy_Viscosity2•39m ago
> The full risk profile of our planet is impossible to determine

This is a classic 'unless we can have a perfect solution to the problem, we shouldn't do anything all' argument. It is usually applied to problems where the solutions involve helping non-rich people.

watwut•37m ago
It was avoidable and in fact, whole countries manage to avoid it. It took series of bad intentional decisions for this to happen the way it did.

And fun fact is that people who made those bad decisions first falsely blamed others, congratulated themselves on being awesome. And now that they want money from FEMA, they still want to destroy it. And they still want to cut weather prediction which they blamed despite being correct.

HPsquared•31m ago
Each individual doesn't need the full risk profile for the planet, only a local subset. That's much easier to model and make assumptions. Like "this is a river, it could flood. How likely and how bad?".
jjulius•27m ago
At a very high level, you are technically correct - existence is inherently risky and, try as we might, we can't always prevent disaster from striking. Disaster will strike again, somewhere.

At a more macro level, we certainly do understand relative risks of specific areas after interacting with them long enough. We begin to get a better picture of what makes one flood plain significantly more dangerous than another. There are instances where things like this can be avoided, or at least mitigated to a certain degree.

dangus•1h ago
This article is juggling two topics that essentially aren’t related.

The first topic is whether people will listen to weather warnings and change behavior in response to them in the first place. In that sense, it seems like a direct and urgent evacuation order should have happened, but I do still find the timeline rather short. Hindsight is 20/20 on that.

The second topic is the author’s opinion that the left-leaning section of media isn’t doing their due diligence.

Let’s be real here, the author of the article is using a cherry-picked event that happens to allegedly not be a result of climate change to try and discredit the general idea of climate change. I don’t think the author intended to discredit climate change as a concept but that’s how the audience will read it.

Sure, the New York Times got it wrong in this specific case and at least partially jumped to a conclusion, but it is established observed scientific fact that human caused climate change is causing and going to cause more extreme weather patterns moving forward.

It is also established fact that DOGE made cuts to the NWS and had to re-hire to stabilize the department as recently as last month. [1] Furthermore, the Trump administration intends to make deep cuts to the NOAA within its 2026 budget proposal. [2]

So while this specific event may not have been affected by budget cuts, we don’t know that for sure yet. Opposition Democrats are asking for investigations into that very question.

And even if NWS cuts didn’t affect this event, it’s still entirely fair for the political discussion to question the merit of making cuts during the same timeline as a preventable tragedy. At some point the administration must own the optics it generates for itself. If it didn’t want those optics it would commit to fully funding the NOAA and NWS, but because this administration has taken action to cut staff and funding, they do have to own the optics even if the optics aren’t always perfectly in line with the truth of the cause and effect. That’s just how politics work.

In other words, if I cut funding to the road department or even merely propose funding cuts and the next day my constituent hits a pothole, they’re going to blame me even if my actions didn’t directly create that pothole. And that blame is politically justified and warranted, because my political stance is that we are spending too much on road maintenance, when clearly that’s not the case.

[1] https://www.newsweek.com/national-weather-service-hiring-spr...

[2] https://www.npr.org/2025/04/11/nx-s1-5361366/major-budget-cu...

Lutger•18m ago
New York Times did not got it wrong, the author got the New York Times wrong.

First of all, the NYT article did NOT claim that the central Texas floods are the result of climate change, and for sure it did not claim that there is any evidence for it. In fact, the supposedly left leaning morally indefensible article actually said that: "Hill Country – the part of the state where the Guadalupe River swelled on July 4 – is sometimes called “flash flood alley” for how at risk it is to seemingly out-of-nowhere surges of water."

So the NYT already acknowledges the history of flooding. The main focus of the article is that climate change is increasing the changes of floods 'such as these in Texas' and highlight the importance of NOAA for dealing with its impacts. And it does so by making a sound argument with references to authoritative sources.

Until an attribution study is done you can't say for sure that 'science says' the odds of the Texas floods were increased by climate change. But you can't say it wasn't either. I won't be so annoying to say its morally indefensible, but its definitely incorrect.

Furthermore, the idea that climate change increases extreme weather events is quite defensible and easy to understand, maybe there is even consensus about it among climate scientists. Its not morally wrong to think the Texas floods fit into this pattern, it is actually quite obvious to think they do.

mjevans•2m ago
What sort of _technical_ solution might exist to this problem?

Likely __hightly__ targeted mobile device alerts. Localize to cell tower and maybe even quadrant and issue warnings like "You are in a flood plane that might experience a flood based on heavy rainfall."

It can't be like the 'smoke alarms' which I've been trained are just 'battery eating middle of the night awakeners'. I've only _only_ ever had those go off because it's a low battery, or on a muggy hellish night because it cooled off enough for the relative humidity inside to become condensing. False alarms literally Pavlovian train someone that it is not an emergency, it's an annoyance.

conartist6•44m ago
Wow I'm glad that one graph settled all of climate science such that it's now morally indefensible to think anything other than what the author thinks
jmclnx•35m ago
I doubt this sad event could have been avoided, looking back, yes things could have been done. But based upon how funding is chosen and applied and who people vote for, things would have to been done differently for the last 40+ years.

This could be looked at as a result for bad choices our elected pols made over decades.

jjulius•33m ago
>This could be looked at as a result for bad choices our elected pols made over decades.

It's not just the elected pols, it's the people who voted for the elected pols, too.

Reubachi•22m ago
Why is this on hacker news...? An editorial opinion blog about a climatic disaster in a region of US?

Even typing out this comment feels dirty as it's against hn commenting rules.

However...this is 50 percent of threads nowadays.

MisterTea•16m ago
Climate is science and peoples blogged opinions are posted here all the time.
kgwxd•11m ago
Yeah, but not blatantly bad-faith ones like this.
willguest•21m ago
> There is NO EVIDENCE that the central Texas floods are the result of climate change.

This isn't how climate science or causality works in relation to climate change. The climate is a chaotic, complex sysem that does not have a single, identifiable nexus by which we can "prove" things happen.

Climate scientists know this and, instead of trying to demonstrate irrefutable proof, point to a better need for monitoring and warning systems, of exactly the type mentioned in this article.

It is unfortunate that the author felt the need to lean into this argument, as is it precisely this kind of perspective that leads people to become suspicious of monitoring and warning systems (by generally rejecting scientific argumentation) - the exact problem that the author claims led to avoidable deaths.

The whole approach is quite confusing to me - why identify the issue and then act to reinforce the issue?

bluGill•7m ago
It is unfortunate that people like you lean into climate change if there is a disaster related to any weather event without looking at evidence. In this area if climate change has any effect it is in the opposite direction - making these floods happen less often. You do discredit to climate change by blaming everything on it.

Climate is chaotic yes. However we can still look at trends, and the trends are if anything climate change makes these events less common. At least so far, only a few more decades of watching this area will say if that is really a pattern or not.

Either that or you need to show that the claim is incorrect. If floods are getting worse in this area show data.

stego-tech•6m ago
Author uses a bunch of maps and charts to support their own narrative, one which all but ignores the reality they get at in the fourth paragraph:

> Furthermore, weather model forecasts indicated the potential for a major precipitation event over this historically flood-prone region during the prior days.

So the answer is yes. Yes, it could have been entirely avoided had the landowners built in such a way that respected the land’s tendency to flood. Yes, it could have been avoided if landowners took warnings seriously, paid attention to past flood events, if the state had put flooding mitigation measures on a river or area known for flash flooding, or if literally anyone had observed that putting dormitories at or near river level was a generally awful idea from a safety perspective.

The fact people died in one of the most predictable types of disasters out there, yet are still trying to weasel around blame or fault, is beyond shameful, and something we don’t need Op-Eds about so much as we need more people calling it what for it is:

A wholly preventable tragedy.

showmexyz•5m ago
Can someone explain how did climate issue became a political issue in USA? It seems rest of world does not have this problem( but it's becoming a problem for rest of the world who follows US politics.)
locopati•2m ago
Half the country stopped believing in science and keeps electing politicians who do damage.

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