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Proposed NOAA Budget Kills Program Designed to Prevent Satellite Collisions

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/proposed-noaa-budget-kills-program-to-prevent-satellite-collisions/
158•bikenaga•2h ago

Comments

tomrod•2h ago
I get the desire to reduce government spending. It looks like sticker shock seeing budgets in the billions and trillions.

This type of program has high value per dollar spent. It's an asset, not a waste. The first order, second order, and even third order effects are very large.

Let us get/return to more reasonable principles for doing these budget evaluations and requests.

nwatson•1h ago
Someone will propose privatization of said program with insurance fees covering the reformulated collision-prevention service. Of course, privatization will leave out crucial aspects, lead to failures, increasing untraceable space debris from which nobody will be safe, and eventually bankruptcy of said privatized program, with no way back. As is happening in other parts of government.
staplers•1h ago
Privatized profits, socialized costs
yapyap•1h ago
Orrrr said privatized thing will start out relatively cheaper than the norm and eventually end up costing way more than what the government was originally spending when it was still part of the government since the private company eventually outpriced everyone with their cheap prices and then when they finally got their monopoly scaled up their prices as much as they feasibly could and then some.
slater•1h ago
Surely you jest! /s
JumpCrisscross•1h ago
> Someone will propose privatization of said program

Someone would if given the time and infrastructure. This, on the other hand, is more DOGE-style idiocy.

tetris11•1h ago
so, Planetes then
sho_hn•49m ago
I get this reference!

Even as an anime grump, I liked this one.

throwaway6734•42m ago
A fantastic show
Rebelgecko•1h ago
The privatization of this data has always been the plan, IIRC that's why the first Trump administration pulled some of these efforts out of the military
alistairSH•1h ago
It was never about reducing spending. It was always about the grift. See also the BBB - massive benefits to the donor class, and a shit sandwich for the rest of us.
conartist6•1h ago
But people who send things to space are often liberal. For example they often have attended college and believe in science.

The political intent behind a new dark age makes sense if you think of the goal as being to destroy competent institutions which represent a real threat to an anti-science, post-truth administration

tomrod•1h ago
> But people who send things to space are often liberal

I literally do not care if someone feels more liberal or conservative in their heart of hearts. There is more that unites people than the pissantry propaganda that plays to divide us.

Rather, like you, I hate waste, which this budget, through underfunding, will create. Probably also like you, I also strongly dislike know-nothing propaganda, especially regarding things about which I am well informed.

Post-truth millieu is a lie. Truth is more adaptive to long term survival.

> For example they often have attended college and believe in science.

One doesn't believe in science. One uses science as a tool to test hypotheses, using real world evidence to understand reality and truth.

JumpCrisscross•1h ago
> One uses science as a tool

This requires a base rate of literacy and critical thinking that a lot of Americans, unfortunately, lack.

tomrod•1h ago
Not the majority. A bit less than 20%, the remaining support coming from people who think politics is a tribal engagement like watching a sports team. Or those that listen to bags of hot wind like Yarvin, Rogan, or Thiel.
conartist6•56m ago
People want and need to learn about science from sources they trust because actually parsing through a scientific paper critically (as a peer reviewer would do) is very hard and is likely only to leave you with more questions while providing an incredibly narrow kind of knowledge.

What interests me is the politics of it. A paper in a vacuum is nothing. How do people really convince each other of the importance of one argument or observation over another? How do those arguments grow to the scale of a whole society? Science at the scale of society doesn't happen in the language of scientific papers, but rather in rhetoric: in appeals to what the Greeks categorized as Ethos (Emotion), Pathos (Authority), and Logos (Logic).

At its most brilliant this is "Schroedinger's cat," which in two words encodes in our collective consciousness an appeal to logic which entreats us through contradiction to consider a philosophically meaningful set of ideas about the nature of reality. (shoutout: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTXTPe3wahc)

justinrubek•1h ago
> One doesn't believe in science. One uses science as a tool to rest hypotheses, using real world evidence to understand reality and truth.

Yes, this is precisely that which they do not believe in. Plug your ears, bury your head in the sand, and whatever you do, do not use cause and effect, data, or evidence to backup your claims and positions. That is the platform upon which they stand.

Eextra953•16m ago
I agree with your statement. What I am always trying to understand is where does this lead us and how can we get back to belief in the scientific method? Removing cause/effect/data leaves all decisions to emotion and short term rewards. I don't think this will end well, especially against a background of countries and cultures that do believe in science and collaboration.
tetha•1h ago
> This type of program has high value per dollar spent. It's an asset, not a waste. The first order, second order, and even third order effects are very large.

This might also be a program in which the goals of a privatized for-profit company are rather bad in the broader context. If you pay me millions to track and possibly control your satellite in orbit so it doesn't collide... I'll invest in rocket companies to launch more satellites. Even if they are very silly satellites.

After all, if they collide, the debris will most likely miss the shareholders, and then you get more satellites to get contracts for.

And who cares if some of those invaluable scientific systems with year-long plans get knocked out?

moralestapia•1h ago
>This type of program has high value per dollar spent.

Care to elaborate?

What's the value that comes back?

Rebelgecko•1h ago
If you save a billion dollar satellite every decade, and it costs $50 million year, you come out ahead. And that's not even counting the negative externalities of unintended conjunctions. Kessler Syndrome is the boggieman of course, but even a few thousand pieces of debris from a single conjunction makes life harder for everyone who operates in space.
moralestapia•42m ago
Has this ever happened?
cco•41m ago
Yes it has.
moralestapia•36m ago
Source? Google doesn't give me anything.
Bootvis•29m ago
There is a Wikipedia page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_collision

mschuster91•24m ago
There was a collision between two comm satellites about 16 years back [1], and that was with satellites that we could track and theoretically control - with the debris collision of 2005 [2], that makes two events.

We've been lucky that this is the only publicly known satellite to collide with another satellite, other than satellites that got shot down as a demonstration of power.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_satellite_collision

[2] https://www.space.com/969-china-space-debris-collide-orbit.h...

epistasis•1h ago
I don't understand the desire to reduce government spending. It's all super high return on investment. Except political pork like price supports for large industrial farmers in the Midwest. ;-)
tomrod•19m ago
For certain industries, there are reasonable arguments to be made to keep domestic and support via price controls.

Food at a high level, yes. Pork specifically, no.

(I know you didn't mean literal pork, but thinking through the spectrum here).

pstuart•4m ago
It can be, when it's invested in butter rather than guns.

Yes, military investments have paid off in new technologies (e.g., Arpanet) but as a whole only reward the owners of the Military Industrial Complex.

LorenPechtel•1h ago
Government is expensive because it does a lot.

There is a lot of trouble with bureaucrats defending fiefdoms that would be better consolidated, but you can't fix that with an axe.

ajmurmann•1h ago
The vast majority of the government budget is entitlements and military. I'm sure there are other things that could be cut and there is always room for more efficiency but it's always gonna be a drop in the bucket compared to entitlements and military.

That said, regulations that make the economy less dynamic and slow stuff down have a high opportunity cost. While it's bureaucrats that write the implementation details and enforce them, it's congress who requires it to happen with AFAIK often little regard to how it would be executed in practice.

AnthonyMouse•21m ago
> The vast majority of the government budget is entitlements and military.

The vast majority of the government budget is "entitlements and military" because donors have their pork classified as those things when they don't want it to be cut. A lot of entitlement programs are structured as handouts to the companies providing those services (e.g. drug and healthcare companies, or landlords) or vote buying of affluent retirees who don't actually need a government subsidy. And I'd like to see someone try to claim with a straight face that there is no waste in the military budget.

But even within those budgets, most of the waste and corruption isn't a single program going to a single place. It's millions of programs that each waste millions of dollars and collectively waste trillions of dollars. And then it doesn't matter if you classify the program as military or entitlements or something else; what matters is if the program is worth the candle.

The problem is that everybody will say that their program is worth it, many them are lying, and it's hard to tell who isn't.

But the thing that's unambiguously true is that the amount of government revenue has been stable as a percentage of GDP for generations and has been growing in terms of real dollars per capita, and yet the amount of government spending has outpaced that by a huge and growing amount.

Is DOGE making a hash of things? Maybe, but then let's do a better job instead of using it as an excuse to not do it.

JumpCrisscross•1h ago
> get the desire to reduce government spending

It should be incredibly clear that the motivation for these folks isn’t reducing government spending (or cutting waste).

The problem is the programme is at NOAA, and NOAA tells a story about the climate that some folks don’t like. So they trash the messenger and his tools.

zer00eyz•1h ago
> I get the desire to reduce government spending. It looks like sticker shock seeing budgets in the billions and trillions.

This is an international issue being funded by the US taxpayer regardless of their own utilization of said services.

Programs like these need to exist, but services like starlink should be the ones footing the bill. The military and weather services would need larger budgets to fund their portion of this effort so some of it would come back to "general taxes" but a much smaller amount.

Meanwhile, All those other groups and nations with launch capabilities and a vested intrest in NOT having issues could be contributing too.

> Let us get/return to more reasonable principles for doing these budget evaluations and requests.

These efforts need to be funded with a tax to support them, and not all be drawn from the same general fund. It would make the arguments about "taxes" and "spending" much more reasonable.

ourmandave•33m ago
What about a Universal Service Fund, like the FCC has for telecom?

https://www.fcc.gov/general/universal-service-fund

Star Link and other companies can charge back their customers what they pay into the fund.

Like how AT&T hits me for the Fed USF, the 20 States Fund, and state and local taxes.

https://www.att.com/legal/terms.otherWirelessFeeSchedule.htm...

jandrewrogers•40m ago
I've worked as a related subject matter expert in a few countries. I can think of a possible reasonable justification for this.

In recent years, the operating environment in orbital space has changed rapidly, and it isn't just the number of objects. These changes are outside the design assumptions of traditional orbital traffic systems, degrading their effectiveness. In response to this reality, governments with significant space assets have been investing in orbital traffic systems that are capable of dealing with the modern environment. However, these rely heavily on classified technology and capability to address the limitations of the older systems.

An argument could be made that it no longer makes sense to fund a public system that is descending into obsolescence due to lack of capability and which can't be meaningfully fixed because that would require exposing classified technical capabilities that no one is willing to expose. In this scenario, the private sector is acting as an offramp from a system that had no future technically.

Space has turned into an interesting place, in the curse sense. It isn't as simple as it used to be.

counters•22m ago
Sure. Great.

But that explanation isn't being offered by the powers-that-be. So there's no point trying to rationalize it post-hoc.

There's no evidence that this is anything more than yet another round of ideologically-fueled maladministration.

jandrewrogers•1m ago
This isn't an explanation that can be offered, at least politically. It invites questions that governments in several developed countries have clearly decided they don't want as part of the public narrative influencing policy. This is the default choice when the real explanation is more complicated, obscure, or technical than will fit in a soundbite, which would be the case in the scenario I hypothesized.

Governments rarely give genuine explanations for their actions and rarely need to. Much easier to use a plausible soundbite related to the current thing. Most people aren't paying attention anyway.

browningstreet•15m ago
There’s no plausible discussion of reducing spending when the added debt commensurate with that effort is as astronomical as it is.

This is privatization and federal dismantling, and it’s happening so fast and recklessly it will also show up as cultural and civil destruction too. He’s wrecking America so that technocrats can buy it all up.

There’s no intended upside for citizens or for the society they make up. People die and his supporters shrug and defend. It’s Microsoft’s embrace, extend, extinguish as political policy, but reduced by hyperscaling to “eviscerate”.

tomrod•10m ago
Yep.

It is so weird to live in a world where the progressive movement is a better supporter of Chesterton's fence than the allegedly conservative GOP and even the corporate/neoliberal wing of the controlled opposition.

browningstreet•5m ago
One reason I’m not especially hopeful is that the resistance is mostly still focused on highlighting the breaches with no actual follow-up. There’s no “Team Resistance”.

The socials are replete with incremental accounting of how each step aligns with Project 2025. No shit. So, many of his voters didn’t read Project 2025, or if they did.. they’re not playing it forward to see what it looks like 10 years in the future.

But what feels true, too, is that the DNC hasn’t read it either. Or if they have, they’re not working against it. I know there are efforts in courts to deny some of these things, and that’s commendable.. but there are no real social or political unities arising to play offense in the next political cycle.

So we have very little defense, and almost no offense. And the referees are bought.

tomrod•2m ago
Aye. Dominionism winning was not on my mid-2000s Bingo card. Maybe we have elections again and reject this march towards Gilead.
danieldk•4m ago
It seems very similar to how a clique bought up a lot of Russia and became their oligarchs. It's another transfer of wealth to the rich and/or Trump's cronies. The destruction of public goods, research, education, and the climate is extremely sad.
bugglebeetle•53s ago
Yup, we’re watching the fire sale of America, like was imposed on Russia in the 90s, and resulted in one of the largest declines in life expectancy in the country’s history. I expect the same here, including its eventual culmination in the rise of a Putin-like figure from the security state apparatus.
ck2•12m ago
It's not about reducing spending (they just added $3+ TRILLION this year out of four)

It's about destroying science, not just current science but the future of science.

By destroying all existing structure so that it will cost trillions to rebuild so impossible anytime soon.

Including academia that seeds the science.

They aren't "conservatives" they are "regressives".

pstuart•8m ago
It would help if we had consensus on what Government is.

Many (including myself) believe that Government should be for "the common good", via a legal system, government investments in shared needs/resources, etc.

The current admin believes that Government exists for only two reasons: personal enrichment and punishing perceived enemies. I'd love to be proven wrong but I don't see that happening.

bpodgursky•5m ago
The fundamental problem is that the public

1. Wants to cut the budget so we don't go broke

2. Punishes anyone who talks about unsustainable retirement, disability, and healthcare entitlement programs.

So, they get politicians who try to find a third way, even if it doesn't make a budgetary difference. To get out of this, the public (especially the boomer retiree population) needs to be more mature about the fiscal situation they put the country in and realize they are not living within their means.

OrvalWintermute•1h ago
Part of the problem is you need to track all orbits for all constellations and free flyers as well as all orbital debris, and communicate across many communities of interest.

It is more national security & military adjacent

I’d stand up a joint agency for this requirement across DOD, NASA, NOAA, FAA, and Commercial Space/Newspace.

cowsandmilk•1h ago
Having a joint program across all those would cost far more money.
nsriv•1h ago
Trying to save on a $55 million program by standing up a joint agency. I have truly heard it all now.
wongarsu•1h ago
The US are by far not the only ones with satellites in orbit. Making it a UN body would make sense, just like the International Telecommunications Union coordinates telephone service and the International Postal Union coordinates international mail, and both are now UN bodies (despite predating the UN).

I have a feeling that the current US administration would not back such an idea, so this will end up back with the DOD, maybe the Space Force. Despite the DOD saying quite clearly they would prefer NOAA to do it

jowea•7m ago
It seems this is already a thing on some form https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/spaceobjectregister/index.htm...
bedhead•1h ago
I see these headlines a lot. Honest question: do we know if these programs actually do anything? Like, can we measure if they’re accomplishing anything, and if so at what cost? Because people love to hyperventilate at these headlines but it’s also not clear to me that just because we have some program and spend money that anything is actually getting done…those details are always curiously absent.
throw0101a•57m ago
> I see these headlines a lot. Honest question: do we know if these programs actually do anything?

The Pentagon themselves seem to think so, "Space Force officials and more than 450 aerospace companies are against the White House's proposal":

> Space Force officials are eager to exit the business of warning third-party satellite operators, including rivals such as Russia and China, of possible collisions in orbit. The military would prefer to focus on managing ever-growing threats from satellites, an intensive effort that requires continual monitoring as other nations' increasingly sophisticated spacecraft maneuver from one orbit to another.

> But until someone else is ready to take over, the Space Force will remain saddled with the responsibility of issuing these alerts. The Space Force calls these alerts conjunction assessments, and there are national security reasons for sharing the warnings far and wide, because a traffic accident in orbit would endanger the Space Force's own satellites.

* https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/07/nearly-everyone-oppose...

yupitsme123•29m ago
I see this come up over and over again too. It's always the same two groups of people arguing over a program that they didn't even know existed until they read the headline.

You have one group of people who thinks these programs are a useless waste of money, then another group who swears that it's the most important program that's ever existed and deserves exactly the amount of money it was getting if not more.

jpalawaga•7m ago
You mean one group that is ignorant costcutters and another group that are subject matter experts? Hmm who to listen to.
djoldman•55m ago
Here's the uncomfortable fact:

If the US Federal Government spent ZERO money on anything except:

1. Social Security

2. Medicare & Medicaid

3. National Defense

4. Net Interest on the Public Debt

5. Income Security

6. Veterans Benefits & Services

7. Federal Civilian & Military Retirement and Disability

... the US would still have a sizable deficit.

All the hoopla surrounding science spending, education, DEI, FDA, housing, foreign aid, disaster relief, etc., doesn't really address some huge issues if the goal is to reduce deficit spending.

JumpCrisscross•49m ago
> if the goal is to reduce deficit spending

Red herring. It’s not. It’s never been. We’re blowing out the deficit by trillions.

The motivation isn’t anything about the deficit. It’s that NOAA counters the climate narrative a narrow band of idiots would prefer to believe.

declan_roberts•48m ago
Debt servicing is now more than 16% of our spending and growing.

I hope all that stuff we bought with $36T was worth it!

JumpCrisscross•41m ago
> hope all that stuff we bought with $36T was worth it

No need for past tense. We’re currently in the most intense—the biggest, most beautiful, one might say—phase of deficit accumulation in American history.

declan_roberts•31m ago
Thankfully we're getting all this cool stuff. You know like... actually what are we getting?
tomrod•16m ago
More debt!
cco•38m ago
A sizeable chunk, probably around half, of what we bought with that $36T was net worth for people like Bezos and the Kochs.
ourmandave•53m ago
Are they hoping satellites studying climate change get destroyed?

Also let's not forget Sharpie Gate and how the petty Orange Emperor appointed a climate science denier to a top position in NOAA.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/12/912301325/longtime-climate-sc...

Yet another systemic rat fucking so somebody can make a buck. It's only ever about the money.

ThinkBeat•50m ago
Clearly this should be funded by the countries and companies that own the debris and sattlites that need to be tracked.

Which means Starling would probably pay for most of it.

Then there are various spy satellites countries have that they dont want tracked? Or does the data from NOAA include spy satellites in strange orbits?

JumpCrisscross•42m ago
> Which means Starling would probably pay for most of it

Then they’d switch to a user fee. Perhaps even at a profit, such that it’s deficit reducing.

That isn’t what they’re doing because that isn’t what this is about.

maxlin•20m ago
If they just figured out a way to not 10x overspend while getting the same results ...
water9•9m ago
only works if everybody agrees and Noaa is not in charge of everybody
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