Probably true. But IMO it's a good thing regardless. The impact of this is fundamentally pro-democracy above anything else.
I really doubt this proposal would ever actually be implemented, but still it is an interesting idea to ponder-in the abstract it seems fairer than a semi-arbitrary cutoff based on chronological age
Better idea should just be that you should be a taxpayer to vote. No tax = no vote. Why should people who aren't contributing decide how to spend the money of those contributing?
A 16 year old who works has a bigger stake than a 21 year old jobless bum stuck in their parents home smoking weed and playing vidya games.
It could be an NGO obeying the people, not govenment.
It’s the right that are shifting, not the left.
And before you ask, yes this contains source references, very easy to check: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GvfUGidXAAAXbIr?format=jpg&name=...
To the extent this is true, I would phrase it the other way: women are becoming less conservative, while young men are drifting towards the extreme right.
Data by "German General Social Survey", Infratest/Dimap (an established and respected polling institute):
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/ftc...
I suspect this is also a hard thing to ‘prove’ with data, since it’s importantly about a shift in how people label left/centre/right. (No left-wing parties I know of are currently suggesting returning income tax rates on the rich anywhere near to historically normal levels, for example).
Can you name one?
> I suspect this is also a hard thing to ‘prove’ with data, since it’s importantly about a shift in how people label left/centre/right.
This is rather easy to prove with data: which type of concrete policies are they in support of (as opposed to some label, or party name or whatever, which might change its "content" over time). As a matter of fact, this being done and the trends hold.
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/ftc...
People cry about gerrymandering all day here and then downvote your comment.
"It doesn’t matter how smart teens are or how well they scored on the SAT or ACT. Good judgment isn’t something they can excel in, at least not yet."
"The rational part of a teen’s brain isn’t fully developed and won’t be until age 25 or so."
"In fact, recent research has found that adult and teen brains work differently. Adults think with the prefrontal cortex, the brain’s rational part. This is the part of the brain that responds to situations with good judgment and an awareness of long-term consequences. Teens process information with the amygdala. This is the emotional part."
https://www.stanfordchildrens.org/en/topic/default?id=unders...
Or accept that growing up is part of life, and that there are short term consequences of political choice too that groups of people are currently denied?
Liz Truss was only PM for 49 days. How much impact on the economy did she have?
https://fortune.com/europe/2022/09/27/uk-stock-bond-markets-...
The article was published 22 days into her tenue.
Or even if they did, the amount of effort they'd put in researching, considering and modelling the potential outcomes would would be commensurate to the impact they would expect their vote to have. I suspect for a good chunk of adult voters, this is in fact the case.
So it's not obvious to me that including more voters whose decision-making is more emotional will necessarily produce worse outcomes. It's conceivable it'll produce better outcomes.
Edit: I'm being downvoted. To be clear, I'm an ardent democrat, but the idea that people vote analytically and rationally doesn't make sense for the above reason. The most informed voters are, in my experience, often highly emotional.
> Or even if they did, the amount of effort they'd put in...
This is actually quite an interesting area if you look into the game theory of making choices in a group setting. Strong strategies typically often don't involve doing much research, but they are rather frustrating for the people who take an interest in politics. Real-world behaviours are arguably quite reasonable on this front too, although they are limited by the ability of the average person to reason their way through the policy suggestions being made by though leaders.
Although I do agree that more voters isn't better. There is a certain level of objective correctness in political decisions if we admit basic ideas like "policies should be tested to see whether they achieve the goals that they were intended to" as a measure of success and the point should be to design systems that optimise on it to some degree.
Yes. And in detail, with this model of a rational electorate, skilled influencers put the effort in to devise a policy platform and convince others that it is good for them. The majority pick a platform that they are convinced by.
It's worth it for the influencers, because they have an outsized impact. It's worth it for everyone else only if choosing a coalition is very low-effort. Or if they are entertained by the influencers.
Again, I'm an ardent democrat. I'm just pointing out the flaws in any argument that assumes rational voters are a good thing - because it's rational to not waste much time on voting. Instead, democracy works best when voters feel an arguably irrational sense of duty and civic pride.
But that wouldn't be rational. The rational approach is to vote when you are in (or plausibly in, or plausibly going to eventually be in) the majority coalition. The hyper-rational equilibrium is politicians do exactly what a majority coalition of voters want and no-one bothers to vote, but once the politicians start becoming flawed or preferences change over time the equilibrium shifts quite rapidly to a rational voter base forming large coalitions that turn up to vote.
It isn't rational to vote if for people who aren't affiliated with a coalition to some degree (and never will be) but people like that are basically a political non-factor anyway and are probably legitimately wasting their time when they vote because there is no policy formula available that they want to support, by definition.
A rational anaylsis would therefore conclude I'm wasting my time and energy even just walking to the polling station, let alone keeping up with political developments through the intervening months and years. As you say, in a hyper-rational world turnout would be way lower - whether it would oscillate and overcorrect as you suggest, or reach a stable equilibrium, I'm not sure.
But whatever my motivation for voting and trying to stay informed, I do not believe it is primarily rational. It's probably some mixture of duty, diversionary entertainment, and ritual. If lowering the voting age to 16 could help inculcate that sense of duty and better establish that ritual, that would be a pretty convincing reason to do it in my opinion.
I really hate when these ideas come of that effectively boil down to creating some kind of litmus test for who can be "trusted" to vote. We have an age limit, maybe the UK wants a lower limit, but at least that's a pretty simple and clear line to be drawn.
This is a ridiculous claim. If you believe children think at all, they do it with the prefrontal cortex, just like every other mammal.
It's certainly true that those parts of the brain continue to influence decision making in adults. Nonetheless, research has shown that those parts of the brain are far more influential in teens.
I think there is a good argument to be made that young people are the biggest stakeholders in our future, and should have a say.
> A growing body of research strongly suggests that brain development continues well into people’s 20s and beyond. ... There is strong scientific consensus that people’s decision-making abilities can evolve between their early and late 20s
https://slate.com/technology/2022/12/teen-brains-neuroscienc...
Some things that are better supported by multiple lines of scientific research, to quote two consecutive bits from the second article: "young people’s general cognitive skills, including their ability to reason, don’t change much after the age of 14 or so." "What does change with age is the ability to reason while distracted; emotions and peer pressure are more likely to hamper decision making in teens and early twentysomethings." These things are really outside of the pop idea of "your brain isn't fully developed until 25".
Yeah, that's pretty much saying the same thing I posted.
"Young people’s general cognitive skills" (SAT and ACT scores) develop early and "don’t change much after the age of 14 or so."
"What does change with age is the ability to reason while distracted; emotions and peer pressure are more likely to hamper decision making." In other words, "Good judgment isn’t something [teens] can excel in, at least not yet."
By the way, I don't know if you noticed, but what I posted wasn't a popsci article, it was from Stanford Children's Health.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/legal-age-of-marriage-in-...
So how far down in age would you go and why would you stop at that age?
I don't think we're being ambitious enough here. I should be able to vote while drink-driving.
What's absurd is allowing a minor to vote.
So you're allowed to vote, but you don't need to pay your taxes. You're still considered a child regarding justice law, but considered adult regarding voting?
So basically you're not allowed to camp somewhere without the consent of your parents but you're "suddenly old enough" to judge about some laws?
I think the consensus is missing if voting is permitted by 16, but everything else stays the same.
I don't think children should have a say in the matter, they lack the critical thinking skills that adults do, which is why we limit their freedoms.
Granted, most adults also lack deep critical thinking skills but they have more capable brains than children.
Further, children are easier to manipulate than adults, which is very dangerous when it comes to something as critical as voting.
That, and finishing reform of the lords. And separating the English parliament from a federal parliament over the separate nations in the federation.
It doesn't matter who we vote for, as long as we vote? What a bad joke. By this theory, all foreign interference, propaganda, education, control of the news, etc.. are completely irrelevant, nothing we should be concerned about at all. Just vote and it'll be fine!
More that voting egotistically (in contrast to trying to predict what is best for society as a whole) is sufficient to create the incentives that benefit the many, as long as the number of voters makes up a high enough share of the population.
Those paying the most already are more invested in the outcomes of the country, do you mean their vote should count for more or less based on how much they pay in taxes?
Youth and parents get an extra vote on school stuff. Those whose education or career are related to a field get an extra vote. In some cases, you may hold 5x the voting power of someone who is removed and unfamiliar with a topic.
No idea if anything like that has been explored.
Allowing people to have more or less say based on stake would lead to a spiral. Those in charge take care of the people they care about, those people would continue to elect the same politicians, and everyone else would be left aside while power (and stake) consolidates.
Why should someone who knows nothing of field have a say in laws that over represents their knowledge and stake?
I don't think my vote for what you feed your kids should count the same as your vote on what you feed your kids.
The worry about votes and power collecting is sane. It happens already through propaganda and ill informed (usually due to low perceived stakes) voters. We need a system that counters the negative effects if low informed masses.
(For the record: Devil's advocate take. I think this whole idea of voting in proportion to your monetary value is ridiculous.)
Children voting will ruin the grift.
> However, Conservative shadow minister Paul Holmes said the government's position was "hopelessly confused".
> "Why does this government think a 16-year-old can vote but not be allowed to buy a lottery ticket, an alcoholic drink, marry, or go to war, or even stand in the elections they're voting in?" he asked in the Commons.
Honestly I'm surprised this hasn't happened already, given how they "have no voice"..
I think this also makes sense, I know when I was younger I was extremely frustrated to see adults making really bad decisions for my country that will have a much longer impact on my life than it will on theirs.
I think a minimum age makes sense, I don't think someone in elementary has any point in voting since most likely they would just do what their parents told them. But by 16 you are generally making your own decisions, your figuring out your adult plans, and not following everything your parents say.
What all these "well adults are dumb too!" arguments ignore is that, those adults were even dumber when they were 2 (or 5, compared to the original voting age of 21) years younger.
At least when you are forced to be in school you are in an environment to likely absorb... something. We regularly kept up with current events in school.
I know many adults that have basically zero idea what is going on in the world.
Also I should note that I did not claim anything about intelligence, but just an awareness of what is going on and the impact of it.
I would possibly even argue that a 16 year old being in school likely has a fresher recollection of history than many adults. I mean how many adults remember all of the math they learned compared to 16 year olds.
heeton•4h ago
It feels like we don’t have a functioning democracy in the U.K., and that gets in the way of pretty much everything else.
bell-cot•4h ago
Vs. - in the last U.K. election, which party was the most vocal about that first-past-the-post system needing replacement? What % of the votes were cast for them?
d1sxeyes•3h ago
~One thing to bear in mind is that FPTP limits the influence of “extreme” parties on elections (see UKIP’s vote share in 2015), but at the expense of requiring more mainstream parties to pander to those voters to avoid splitting the vote share. Jury is still out I think on what’s “best” here and probably depends on what “best” means to the person forming an opinion.~
Edit: turns out the above is at best contested, at worst disproven.
roenxi•3h ago
Although just from browsing the UKs AV proposal it does look like it'd be similar to IRV which has some wild results in certain tight races. Although I personally think that is fine; a little randomness is good for the system.
[0] http://zesty.ca/voting/sim/
d1sxeyes•3h ago
pjc50•2h ago
The weird thing is how many different election systems are in use in the UK depending on what the politics of each devolved assembly is "supposed to be".
roenxi•4h ago
If that is the nature of the atmosphere then I doubt many important people are going to put their head above the parapet and call for reforms in the direction of adults getting better political expression. The power holders don't think that is favourable to them.
terminalshort•4h ago
plantain•3h ago
robin_reala•3h ago
leereeves•3h ago
mytailorisrich•3h ago
As long as Reform UK splits the Tory vote FPTP will continue to be in Labour's interests.
In fact, at the moment moving away from FPTP would mostly benefit Reform UK and the Lib Dems, possibly the Tories, too as this point.
noja•4h ago
plantain•3h ago
aqme28•3h ago
mytailorisrich•3h ago