People tend to overestimate the impact AI will have in the short term, and underestimate the impact it will have in the long term.

Do you imagine a future where journalists are AI agents, writing better than humans? Probably not, because where would they get the news from, right? But now imagine a future where AI journalists receive raw news from people all over the world. Their job is to verify, organise, and turn that information into a news article.

What about books written by AI agents, based on stories submitted by thousands of writers? Or software built by AI, based on recommendations and code examples from developers everywhere.

These agents are just machines processing the data we feed them. And that data will fuel the economy. It will create value, and the more data you produce or control, the more influence and wealth you'll have.

Those who can't contribute data may end up living on a universal basic income.

When kids say (as one does in this essay) that AI will do the writing for them in the future anyway, so there's no point in learning to write, they have a point. But there is a second function of writing, which is to strengthen parts of the mind. Maybe in the future there will be "gyms" for developing these mental muscles in the same way we have fitness centers at a time when physical labor has become much less common in the past?