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LLMs Tend to Be Overconfident

https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13421-025-01755-4#Sec62
3•giuliomagnifico•6mo ago

Comments

giuliomagnifico•6mo ago
> We do find some evidence that LLMs—particularly those produced by Claude—are perhaps slightly more accurate than humans when estimating their overall performance. Similarly, LLMs may be slightly more accurate than humans when estimating item-level confidence. Interestingly, however, we find that LLMs are not consistently capable of updating their metacognitive judgments based on their experiences. We also find that, like humans, LLMs tend to be overconfident. We believe that these conclusions can help human users better understand the extent to which they should trust LLMs’ confidence judgments and hope that these results spark new interest in studying the metacognitive capacities of LLMs

A Tale of Two Standards, POSIX and Win32 (2005)

https://www.samba.org/samba/news/articles/low_point/tale_two_stds_os2.html
1•goranmoomin•3m ago•0 comments

Ask HN: Is the Downfall of SaaS Started?

1•throwaw12•4m ago•0 comments

Flirt: The Native Backend

https://blog.buenzli.dev/flirt-native-backend/
2•senekor•6m ago•0 comments

OpenAI's Latest Platform Targets Enterprise Customers

https://aibusiness.com/agentic-ai/openai-s-latest-platform-targets-enterprise-customers
1•myk-e•8m ago•0 comments

Goldman Sachs taps Anthropic's Claude to automate accounting, compliance roles

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/anthropic-goldman-sachs-ai-model-accounting.html
2•myk-e•11m ago•3 comments

Ai.com bought by Crypto.com founder for $70M in biggest-ever website name deal

https://www.ft.com/content/83488628-8dfd-4060-a7b0-71b1bb012785
1•1vuio0pswjnm7•12m ago•1 comments

Big Tech's AI Push Is Costing More Than the Moon Landing

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-spending-tech-companies-compared-02b90046
1•1vuio0pswjnm7•14m ago•0 comments

The AI boom is causing shortages everywhere else

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/02/07/ai-spending-economy-shortages/
1•1vuio0pswjnm7•15m ago•0 comments

Suno, AI Music, and the Bad Future [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8dcFhF0Dlk
1•askl•17m ago•1 comments

Ask HN: How are researchers using AlphaFold in 2026?

1•jocho12•20m ago•0 comments

Running the "Reflections on Trusting Trust" Compiler

https://spawn-queue.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3786614
1•devooops•25m ago•0 comments

Watermark API – $0.01/image, 10x cheaper than Cloudinary

https://api-production-caa8.up.railway.app/docs
1•lembergs•27m ago•1 comments

Now send your marketing campaigns directly from ChatGPT

https://www.mail-o-mail.com/
1•avallark•30m ago•1 comments

Queueing Theory v2: DORA metrics, queue-of-queues, chi-alpha-beta-sigma notation

https://github.com/joelparkerhenderson/queueing-theory
1•jph•42m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Hibana – choreography-first protocol safety for Rust

https://hibanaworks.dev/
5•o8vm•44m ago•1 comments

Haniri: A live autonomous world where AI agents survive or collapse

https://www.haniri.com
1•donangrey•45m ago•1 comments

GPT-5.3-Codex System Card [pdf]

https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/23eca107-a9b1-4d2c-b156-7deb4fbc697c/GPT-5-3-Codex-System-Card-02.pdf
1•tosh•58m ago•0 comments

Atlas: Manage your database schema as code

https://github.com/ariga/atlas
1•quectophoton•1h ago•0 comments

Geist Pixel

https://vercel.com/blog/introducing-geist-pixel
2•helloplanets•1h ago•0 comments

Show HN: MCP to get latest dependency package and tool versions

https://github.com/MShekow/package-version-check-mcp
1•mshekow•1h ago•0 comments

The better you get at something, the harder it becomes to do

https://seekingtrust.substack.com/p/improving-at-writing-made-me-almost
2•FinnLobsien•1h ago•0 comments

Show HN: WP Float – Archive WordPress blogs to free static hosting

https://wpfloat.netlify.app/
1•zizoulegrande•1h ago•0 comments

Show HN: I Hacked My Family's Meal Planning with an App

https://mealjar.app
1•melvinzammit•1h ago•0 comments

Sony BMG copy protection rootkit scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sony_BMG_copy_protection_rootkit_scandal
2•basilikum•1h ago•0 comments

The Future of Systems

https://novlabs.ai/mission/
2•tekbog•1h ago•1 comments

NASA now allowing astronauts to bring their smartphones on space missions

https://twitter.com/NASAAdmin/status/2019259382962307393
2•gbugniot•1h ago•0 comments

Claude Code Is the Inflection Point

https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/claude-code-is-the-inflection-point
4•throwaw12•1h ago•3 comments

Show HN: MicroClaw – Agentic AI Assistant for Telegram, Built in Rust

https://github.com/microclaw/microclaw
1•everettjf•1h ago•2 comments

Show HN: Omni-BLAS – 4x faster matrix multiplication via Monte Carlo sampling

https://github.com/AleatorAI/OMNI-BLAS
1•LowSpecEng•1h ago•1 comments

The AI-Ready Software Developer: Conclusion – Same Game, Different Dice

https://codemanship.wordpress.com/2026/01/05/the-ai-ready-software-developer-conclusion-same-game...
1•lifeisstillgood•1h ago•0 comments