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Ask HN: Why do so many people think AI will continue to improve exponentially?

1•AbstractH24•6mo ago

When you look at the 20th century and first quarter of the 21st improvements have been anything but exponential.

It’s been gradual with occasional major leaps and paradigm shifts.

I’m actually shocked how much more similar life in the year 2000 and 2025 are than 1950 vs 1975 or 1975 vs 2000

Flip side of this argument I guess is we’re overdue for a major upending of society on par with WW I. Although I’d counter the Ottoman Empire lasted 800 years

Comments

k310•6mo ago

Because spending and power consumption seem to be increasing exponentially.

Unless there's a 1,000,000X algorithm speedup, people like me will prefer our air conditioning to grid meltdown.

Personal opinion.

AbstractH24•6mo ago

Im not sure I follow. Can you elaborate?

k310•6mo ago

Until there's a lot more power, or AI uses a lot less, power's a zero sum game.

The exponential increases have been in spending and power needs, both current and anticipated, and LLM's are mimicry, not creative, IMO, so where's the exponential payoff?

People without jobs aren't going to pay for AI, unless it's to further flood employers with job applications.

AbstractH24•6mo ago

Ok, now I see your point. And basically agree.

But who is the voice of the little person losing his job who is going to stop ACME mega corp from taking money from ACMO slightly smaller corp to spend on power?

And when does this hit an inflection point? How close are we?