The comparison to the dot-com bubble is compelling, especially around inflated valuations and vague business models.
What do you think will separate the lasting AI companies from the ones riding hype?
toomuchtodo•6mo ago
Proof of value delivery within costs willing to be paid by customers.
ben_w•6mo ago
The only thing that ever does: a comparative advantage.
It may be that no model supplier is in this category and the only winners are hardware suppliers, if e.g. open weights models are good enough for approximately all* problems.
* Has to be very close to all problems, because an AI which is wildly better than anything else at what it does, even when what it does is only a percent or so of the economic problems, that's in the same space as "software" generally today, and that's a big enough market to supply multiple trillion-dollar-market-cap companies.
justcallmejm•6mo ago
When a startup with a tiny team that’s raised 580,000x less than OpenAI can outperform them on capability…I’d call that a bubble :)
anis-mer•6mo ago
What do you think will separate the lasting AI companies from the ones riding hype?
toomuchtodo•6mo ago
ben_w•6mo ago
It may be that no model supplier is in this category and the only winners are hardware suppliers, if e.g. open weights models are good enough for approximately all* problems.
* Has to be very close to all problems, because an AI which is wildly better than anything else at what it does, even when what it does is only a percent or so of the economic problems, that's in the same space as "software" generally today, and that's a big enough market to supply multiple trillion-dollar-market-cap companies.