https://www.pbs.org/video/the-final-barrier-to-nearly-infini...
> The highest gain as of 2025 of Q = 4.13 yielded 8.6 MJ from 2.08 MJ of laser energy
As I have learned more about the intricacies of what they're doing I found myself getting SpaceX vibes.
captain_coffee•6mo ago
AIPedant•6mo ago
(Remember this is same same Satya Nadella who offered Altman an unspecified CEO-level position after he got fired... while publicly admitting he didn't know why Altman was fired! If I was a MSFT investor I would be pretty upset about this.)
Presumably 2025 MSFT is more sober-minded about Altman. I wonder if they're gonna try to wiggle their way out of the PPA. Otherwise I am truly baffled.
trhway•6mo ago
If nothing else, that, after all the good they had done to him, should do it:
"OpenAi v. Microsoft: Altman ready to sue for unfair competition
...
OpenAI has put a potentially devastating weapon on the table: accusing Microsoft of anti-competitive practices and raising the attention of the Federal Trade Commission. It would be a low blow... "
https://en.ilsole24ore.com/art/openai-v-microsoft-altman-rea...
hinkley•6mo ago
Seemed like there was a certain amount of magic thinking about neutron damage but a bit less than fission typically does. Guess we’ll see.
SilverElfin•6mo ago
HarHarVeryFunny•6mo ago
paddw•6mo ago
AIPedant•6mo ago
FWIW I agree with the author of that Data Center Dynamics post, it's quite likely that MSFT and Helion are essentially in cahoots by stoking investors with vaporware. But it also seems like Altman might have sold Nadella 50MW of magic beans.
[1] https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/opinions/microsoft-and... This is second-hand, the agreement is not public.
xorcist•6mo ago
Here there's realistically no way to continue electricity production so the assets will likely be chopped up and sold, if possible. Nobody owns anyone anything and Microsoft doesn't have to pay a dime. They won't get their power of course, but there's no downside for them.
These types articles where a PPA contract is confused with an investment is really common, mostly for nuclear and renewables, but that doesn't make them any more true. Microsoft hasn't invested anything, likely because they know this is (pardon the pun) hot air.
dehrmann•6mo ago
Another option is this was to sweeten the pot during OpenAI negotiations.
cornholio•6mo ago
If fusion had all three today, it would still e a though sell; fission has them and is still failing economically.
staplung•6mo ago
hinkley•6mo ago
captain_coffee•6mo ago
How would that energy generated from nuclear fusion be transformed into electricity "directly"? By which process / series of processes?
cyberax•6mo ago
Using a particle accelerator (decelerator?) in reverse. I'm an investor in Tri-Alpha Energy, and they have tested a direct converter with the claimed 90+% efficiency.
Animats•6mo ago
What they're trying to do is known physics but very hard engineering.
They're also trying for aneutronic fusion, using helium-3. If the plant generates large volumes of neutrons, it chews up the first wall between the reaction and the outside. It also makes what it hits radioactive, so there's a waste problem. Aneutronic fusion uses reactions that (mostly) generate alphas and betas. This is, again, known physics but very hard engineering.
If they can get a demo machine going which solves either problem, that would be a huge advance. So far, that does not seem to have happened.
There are other startups in this space. It's probably the way commercial fusion power will eventually be done. Not via the tokamaks, like ITER.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_energy_conversion
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetohydrodynamic_generator
[3] https://spectrum.ieee.org/aneutronic-fusion
XorNot•6mo ago
There is literally no evidence to suggest this: Helion are making big claims but as noted have shown little incremental progress on their machines.
The balance of history says if it happens it'll come out of a large government funded project: that's how fission happened, and there's plain old fission startups too who also are yet to deliver anything and we know fission works.
pfdietz•6mo ago
XorNot•6mo ago
Because HackerNews was soooo confident that a startup style skunkworks initiative would lead to over-unity fusion in 5 years[1]...in 2014.
Then they were soooo confident that MIT was going to blow past ITER to over unity fusion[2] ... in 2020.
It's 2025, and the latter project is still running but now predicting it'll finish it's big reactor post-2030.
Helion are currently now reporting no new results, but claiming they'll hit net-energy in 2028 somehow despite little technical detail. After claiming they'll show net-energy fusion in 2024.[3]
So there's my evidence. Where's your evidence?
It should be noted that I'm not actually against private fusion research - more research is great. But the unfounded confidence with which HackerNews users make predictions of the obvious superiority and success of private industry in achieving fusion has a track record of "we still don't have fusion" despite company's dating back as early to early last decade when we're mid-2020s now.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8458339
[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24629828
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helion_Energy
pfdietz•6mo ago
Who here is "soooo" confident Helion will succeed? One can be excited about a company without thinking they're a sure thing. The world is going to spend maybe a quadrillion dollars on energy in this century, so even low odds bets can be very worthwhile.
Those two HN links there were to stories about companies other than Helion. I agree the DT efforts are dubious.
Helion has been reporting results, btw. Have you been reading? Maybe you're complaining they haven't finished all of the next machine yet? "They didn't snap their fingers to make their machine, therefore they're frauds!" isn't a good look.
https://x.com/helion_energy?lang=en
DangitBobby•6mo ago
Also:
> Fusion generates electricity by ramming atoms into each other, releasing energy without emitting significant greenhouse gases or creating large amounts of long-lasting radioactive waste. But despite billions of dollars of investment, scientists and engineers still have not figured out a way to reliably generate more energy with fusion than it takes to create and sustain the reaction. Helion is still working on how to do that with its current prototype, called Polaris, which is housed in Everett, Washington, where it plans to build components for the machine to be built at Malaga, called Orion.
1. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/helion-energy-starts...
pfdietz•6mo ago
The quoted argument is basically "it hasn't happened yet, therefore it can't happen". Why does this argument not also apply to SpaceX, for all the things they've been the first to do?
I get that skepticism is warranted, but please don't cross the line into blatant technical nihilism.
matthewdgreen•6mo ago
DangitBobby•6mo ago
Animats•6mo ago
Success with Polaris would be a big deal. Helion isn't mentioning it much any more. Not good. December 2024 discussion on Reddit.[1] Discussion in the last month on Reddit.[2] Video from Helion that mentions mostly Trenta, the previous machine.[3]
Yet they're pouring concrete for the next machine.
Uh oh.
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/fusion/comments/1hlojqu/any_news_on...
[2] https://www.reddit.com/r/fusion/comments/1lv4e2h/what_has_ch...
[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuB3bIsJeJA
thinkcontext•6mo ago
> Energy is captured by direct energy conversion that uses the expansion of the plasma to induce a current in the magnetic compression- and acceleration – coils. Separately it translates high-energy fusion products, such as alpha particles directly into a voltage. 3He produced by D–D fusion carries 0.82 MeV of energy. Tritium byproducts carry 1.01 MeV, while the proton produces 3.02 MeV.
> This approach eliminates the need for steam turbines, cooling towers, and their associated energy losses. According to the company, this process also allows the recovery of a significant part of the input energy at a round-trip efficiency of over 95%.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helion_Energy
slashdave•6mo ago
I assume their building permit includes plans. Someone should look them up.
WJW•6mo ago
Tbh, I very much doubt that this is a realistic path in the coming decade (but would love to be proven wrong). AFAIK no experimental reactor has yet generated any net electrical power at all, let alone with any big (ie dozens to hundreds of) MW MHD generators. Getting even one of these aspects working would be a major advance, let alone doing both at once.
jcims•6mo ago
pfdietz•6mo ago
It's the electromagnetic plasma equivalent of a reciprocating internal combustion engine.
spwa4•6mo ago
Then again, this is being done with private funds. So let them, and frankly, I really hope it works. Hell, if they wanted reasonable subsidy for this, I say give it to them.
pfdietz•6mo ago
There's nothing that should be unbelievable about this claim, and to dispute it would be to assert that they are outright lying. For short timescales where do you expect the energy to be going, if not back to the capacitors? Inductive energy storage on short time scales should be very efficient. Both the coils used and the plasma itself have sufficiently low resistivity. I think the gating technology for this was the switches.
The 1% figure you give there isn't for anything resembling this process, so I don't know why you brought it up except for reasons of obfuscation or your own confusion.
cornholio•6mo ago
Overall, when you look at the total complexity and energy balance of the full reactor + fueling cycle, maintaining vacuum, keeping superconducting magnets at cryogenic temperatures, tritium extraction etc. then generating an order of magnitude more energy than inserted still seems necessary to achieve engineering breakeven.
pfdietz•6mo ago
X-ray emission is strongly dependent on electron temperature. One of the important aspects of Helion's scheme is the electron temperature is much lower than the ion temperature. Not only does this greatly reduce x-ray emission, it reduces plasma pressure at a given ion temperature vs. a plasma where the ions and electrons are in thermal equilibrium, thereby increasing the ion density and fusion rate. The pulses in Helion's scheme end (and the plasma energy is recovered) before the electrons can heat up.
idiotsecant•6mo ago
cornholio•6mo ago
Everything we know about current approaches to fusion seem to indicate they will have the same economic problems. The scaling factors of confinement, power and reaction rates push towards immense reactors with vacuum chambers the size of apartment buildings, massive superconducting magnets etc. hence the ITER project spiraling out of control trying to build one just big enough that at least have a fair chance of achieving engineering breakeven. The basic plasma physics works the same for Helion, and the best triple product they achieved places them two orders of magnitude behind tokamaks, albeit with much less capital.
So when and if the best approaches to fusion succeed, it looks like they will yield these massive plants that share the costs problems of fission. While they won't be able to meltdown, the regulatory constraints will be very similar, the intense neutron flux will activate the structure of the reactor and poses similar proliferation and decommissioning concerns, there is radiological risk to the civil population in the form of Tritium leaks etc.
And unlike fission, which is very well understood and mature, fusion plants will be much riskier economically, on par with the attempt to introduce fast fission breeders into commercial service, which notoriously failed.
So while the physics is indeed very different, we know enough to compare fusion and fission economically, and the outlook is very bleak.
idiotsecant•6mo ago
Pro tip: it's not. It's because there is millions of man-hours of regulatory burden attached to every decision, to every bolt, to every instrument or valve installed.
There is a reason for all that regulatory burden, of course. It's the release of long lived and deadly radiation from a meltdown. If it wasn't for that regulation building a nuke plant would actually be quite inexpensive, relative to current costs- On the scale of a hydro dam.
Fusion has none of those costs because it has none of the same dangers. It's a wildly different problem with wildly different cost basis. The expensive part is research. Once that's done that cost is gone.
pfdietz•6mo ago
Guess what? Fusion reactors also can't tolerate malfunctions. Not because of public safety, but because large (DT reactors being 40x the size of a fission reactor for a given power output) complex devices that are too radioactive for hands on maintenance are unrepairable.
Helion is claiming they can go with materials with very low beyond short term activation, and that the cylindrical geometry would make swapping out hot components easier. Whether that is enough remains to be seen, but IMO DT approaches are complete dead ends.
cornholio•6mo ago
While it's unclear when all this will be achieved, nobody is ready to bet 10 billions that it won't happen in the next two decades they need to recover costs.
pfdietz•6mo ago
One very significant issue with Helion's scheme is the enormous quantity of tritium produced. To put this in context: to power the world with such reactors might require ~10 TW. If using 2DD + D3He, this would produce 12 grams of tritium per second. If this stream were all released into the environment (which it would not be, but this is for purposes of illustration) it would lift all the water in the entire biosphere close to the US legal limit for tritium in drinking water, including all 1.3 billion cubic kilometers in the oceans. Tritium capture and containment will have to be extremely good for this technology to be globally acceptable.
cornholio•6mo ago
This issue of safety is particularly prone to handwaving; in reality, the combined effects of activation and proliferation risks and the substantial radionuclide release potential will make the operational realities, regulations, environmental litigation and associated costs very similar to fission.
That's not too say fusion is inherently dangerous, rather that modern fission projects are already very safe and fusion won't improve on that. Yet fision still failed. So if fusion can't improve on the economics - and they quite clearly can't for the foreseeable future - then they bring nothing to the table.
throwawaymaths•6mo ago
Animats•6mo ago
Discussion on Reddit.[2]
They previously built something called "Trenta".[3] That generates two balls of plasma and fires them at each other. There's no fusion or fusion fuel. It's a test rig for plasma generation and manipulation. That was running two years ago.
"Polaris" is a scale-up of Trenta, with something to fuse, and with energy recovery. It's very unclear how far that project has progressed. If they were getting energy out, that would be big news. Helion is vague about how that's progressing.
[1] https://www.helionenergy.com/polaris/
[2] https://www.reddit.com/r/fusion/comments/1hlojqu/any_news_on...
[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bDXXWQxK38
WJW•6mo ago
That's rather underselling it. If they have a proven, working, commercially viable design for a fusion power plant, they could probably just write a paper about how it works and collect their Nobel prize for physics next year.
creato•6mo ago
matthewdgreen•6mo ago
xorbax•6mo ago
Is anyone better versed in this? It seems strangely opaque for such a large-scale project.
Nevermark•6mo ago
They are taking very large calculated risks, attempting their first success, apparently with reason to believe it may work, in a market with enormous financial potential.
This a good period to shut-up and execute, and neither set themselves up to be a public debacle, or set up competition to arrive closer on their heals.
HarHarVeryFunny•6mo ago
Nevermark•6mo ago
Then become a regular (but favored) customer, as the supply side becomes truly net profitable.
HarHarVeryFunny•6mo ago
Even once they demonstrate fusion and viable levels of power extraction, it seems there would still be an issue of what is the level of "wear and tear" (incl. any radioactivity) of the fusion chamber - which it would seem may ultimately be a matter of try it for an extended period of time and see.
Nevermark•6mo ago
BobbyTables2•6mo ago
Xss3•6mo ago
jjjggggggg•6mo ago
throwawaymaths•6mo ago
31carmichael•6mo ago