But it almost certainly happens.
So not fundamentally different.
And I just figured out how I would leverage particular kinds of existing credibility, and vulnerability, to do it. But the harder part is making significant bank, while not getting caught. (And spending eternity with your black soul!)
there's always people working on spotting or breeding them and home and corporate labs have gotten pretty damn big and powerful way back when.
prediction markets, stock markets, even the news and entertainment industry, and big tech, of course; everybody is breeding black swans.
(and it could happen again: https://polymarket.com/event/another-dildo-thrown-at-wnba-ga...
https://polymarket.com/event/dildo-thrown-at-wnba-game-on-au... )
So the prediction market in this case maybe isn't so much causing the bad events, as just being a useful side channel by which the insiders/bad actors who've already planned the events can sweep up a little extra money from the prediction-market equivalent of "retail investors" — the ones who are inexplicably willing to put their money on the table with no information whatsoever and wait for someone else to take it.
Zipzip•6mo ago
Flimm•6mo ago