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Πfs – The Data-Free Filesystem

https://github.com/philipl/pifs
1•ravenical•2m ago•0 comments

Go-busybox: A sandboxable port of busybox for AI agents

https://github.com/rcarmo/go-busybox
1•rcarmo•3m ago•0 comments

Quantization-Aware Distillation for NVFP4 Inference Accuracy Recovery [pdf]

https://research.nvidia.com/labs/nemotron/files/NVFP4-QAD-Report.pdf
1•gmays•4m ago•0 comments

xAI Merger Poses Bigger Threat to OpenAI, Anthropic

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-03/musk-s-xai-merger-poses-bigger-threat-to-op...
1•andsoitis•4m ago•0 comments

Atlas Airborne (Boston Dynamics and RAI Institute) [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNorxwlZlFk
1•lysace•5m ago•0 comments

Zen Tools

http://postmake.io/zen-list
1•Malfunction92•7m ago•0 comments

Is the Detachment in the Room? – Agents, Cruelty, and Empathy

https://hailey.at/posts/3mear2n7v3k2r
1•carnevalem•8m ago•0 comments

The purpose of Continuous Integration is to fail

https://blog.nix-ci.com/post/2026-02-05_the-purpose-of-ci-is-to-fail
1•zdw•10m ago•0 comments

Apfelstrudel: Live coding music environment with AI agent chat

https://github.com/rcarmo/apfelstrudel
1•rcarmo•11m ago•0 comments

What Is Stoicism?

https://stoacentral.com/guides/what-is-stoicism
3•0xmattf•11m ago•0 comments

What happens when a neighborhood is built around a farm

https://grist.org/cities/what-happens-when-a-neighborhood-is-built-around-a-farm/
1•Brajeshwar•11m ago•0 comments

Every major galaxy is speeding away from the Milky Way, except one

https://www.livescience.com/space/cosmology/every-major-galaxy-is-speeding-away-from-the-milky-wa...
2•Brajeshwar•12m ago•0 comments

Extreme Inequality Presages the Revolt Against It

https://www.noemamag.com/extreme-inequality-presages-the-revolt-against-it/
2•Brajeshwar•12m ago•0 comments

There's no such thing as "tech" (Ten years later)

1•dtjb•13m ago•0 comments

What Really Killed Flash Player: A Six-Year Campaign of Deliberate Platform Work

https://medium.com/@aglaforge/what-really-killed-flash-player-a-six-year-campaign-of-deliberate-p...
1•jbegley•13m ago•0 comments

Ask HN: Anyone orchestrating multiple AI coding agents in parallel?

1•buildingwdavid•15m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Knowledge-Bank

https://github.com/gabrywu-public/knowledge-bank
1•gabrywu•20m ago•0 comments

Show HN: The Codeverse Hub Linux

https://github.com/TheCodeVerseHub/CodeVerseLinuxDistro
3•sinisterMage•21m ago•2 comments

Take a trip to Japan's Dododo Land, the most irritating place on Earth

https://soranews24.com/2026/02/07/take-a-trip-to-japans-dododo-land-the-most-irritating-place-on-...
2•zdw•21m ago•0 comments

British drivers over 70 to face eye tests every three years

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c205nxy0p31o
25•bookofjoe•22m ago•9 comments

BookTalk: A Reading Companion That Captures Your Voice

https://github.com/bramses/BookTalk
1•_bramses•22m ago•0 comments

Is AI "good" yet? – tracking HN's sentiment on AI coding

https://www.is-ai-good-yet.com/#home
3•ilyaizen•23m ago•1 comments

Show HN: Amdb – Tree-sitter based memory for AI agents (Rust)

https://github.com/BETAER-08/amdb
1•try_betaer•24m ago•0 comments

OpenClaw Partners with VirusTotal for Skill Security

https://openclaw.ai/blog/virustotal-partnership
2•anhxuan•24m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Seedance 2.0 Release

https://seedancy2.com/
2•funnycoding•25m ago•0 comments

Leisure Suit Larry's Al Lowe on model trains, funny deaths and Disney

https://spillhistorie.no/2026/02/06/interview-with-sierra-veteran-al-lowe/
1•thelok•25m ago•0 comments

Towards Self-Driving Codebases

https://cursor.com/blog/self-driving-codebases
1•edwinarbus•25m ago•0 comments

VCF West: Whirlwind Software Restoration – Guy Fedorkow [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLoXodz1N9A
1•stmw•26m ago•1 comments

Show HN: COGext – A minimalist, open-source system monitor for Chrome (<550KB)

https://github.com/tchoa91/cog-ext
1•tchoa91•27m ago•1 comments

FOSDEM 26 – My Hallway Track Takeaways

https://sluongng.substack.com/p/fosdem-26-my-hallway-track-takeaways
1•birdculture•27m ago•0 comments
Open in hackernews

Prediction markets create harmful outcomes: a case study

https://bobjacobs.substack.com/p/how-prediction-markets-can-create
19•Zipzip•6mo ago

Comments

Zipzip•6mo ago
The forecasting community often promotes prediction markets as information aggregation tools, but sports betting provides a real-world test case for their claimed benefits vs. actual risks. As a concrete example of what can go wrong: NBA player Jontay Porter was banned for life after deliberately underperforming in games where he and associates had bet on his poor performance. He'd grab a few rebounds then fake an injury to stay under betting thresholds, profiting from markets on his own stats. This isn't isolated - similar manipulation scandals now exist across tennis, football, rugby, cricket, and other sports. The incentive structure is clear: participants don't just predict outcomes, they can influence them. Beyond direct manipulation, prediction markets also incentivize misinformation campaigns. Buy contracts cheap, spread convincing rumors to move market prices, then sell at profit.
Flimm•6mo ago
No AI, please
SilverElfin•6mo ago
What makes them fundamentally different from the stock market?
Nevermark•6mo ago
The stock market has so much more scale, in money at stake, data, news coverage, experts followup on rumors, etc. it would be relatively harder, and take more potentially traceable effort, to impact pricing with a rumor.

But it almost certainly happens.

So not fundamentally different.

And I just figured out how I would leverage particular kinds of existing credibility, and vulnerability, to do it. But the harder part is making significant bank, while not getting caught. (And spending eternity with your black soul!)

ubersketch•6mo ago
It sounds like the problem is that not enough people are using prediction markets then!
king_magic•6mo ago
I think they are morally corrupt.
nudgeOrnurture•6mo ago
black swans.

there's always people working on spotting or breeding them and home and corporate labs have gotten pretty damn big and powerful way back when.

prediction markets, stock markets, even the news and entertainment industry, and big tech, of course; everybody is breeding black swans.

kevinwang•6mo ago
This seems to have just happened: https://polymarket.com/event/another-dildo-thrown-at-wnba-ga...

(and it could happen again: https://polymarket.com/event/another-dildo-thrown-at-wnba-ga...

https://polymarket.com/event/dildo-thrown-at-wnba-game-on-au... )

quuxplusone•6mo ago
Update: It did happen again. In fact, the dildo-throwings seem to have been a pre-planned tie-in for "Green Dildo Coin": https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna223905

So the prediction market in this case maybe isn't so much causing the bad events, as just being a useful side channel by which the insiders/bad actors who've already planned the events can sweep up a little extra money from the prediction-market equivalent of "retail investors" — the ones who are inexplicably willing to put their money on the table with no information whatsoever and wait for someone else to take it.