Even if you figure the US was headed straight for recession right out of the gate starting on January 20, it's not supposed to be measurable yet.

When Navarro gave his interview yesterday it was pretty easy to determine something was wrong though.

Is "ungenuine" still a word?

This is basically what happened during Trump's first term. He was always announcing crazy shit, and then all the people working for him tried to keep it from happening. This was used in the last election as evidence the Trump's policies aren't so bad.

The tarrif stuff is going to work out the same way. People are really bad at nuance, long term thinking, and connecting delayed effects to causes. The argument will be, well if the tarrifs were so bad why did it take 6 or 9 months or whatever to have any effect? Probably, it was all the Epstein talk that crashed the economy, or Obama did it to distract from his looming inditement over the Russia hoax. We live in insane times.

Economists have correctly predicted 14 of the last 2 recessions.