Trump Just Militarized the Capital — What Comes Next?
Well, this will be unpopular as [edit: some] of my comments are here ... but ... hopefully rinse and repeat in the rest of the big cities that have given up on enforcing laws and in effect have decriminalized crime. If states and cities can't keep people safe then unfortunately the national guard will have to step in. I do not envy those in the national and state guards as only handfuls of them are trained for this. I predict there will be some ugly mistakes and mishaps that may escalate some incidents.
[Edit] Thread is flagged. Will continue discussion on the next one.
chaps•14h ago
Do you think that crime is "on the rise"?
Bender•14h ago
I think that crime is not recognized or tracked in some cities. This is a problem in the USA. Canada is not having these issues in big cities as they have zero tolerance for violent crime.
chaps•14h ago
Let me ask a different question.
Do you think violent crime is on the rise?
Bender•14h ago
Do you think violent crime is on the rise?
Nobody knows the real answer to this. Rather cities have become violent over time and criminals are released shortly after their violent crimes. The general public is well aware of this and why there is a non-partisan rise in home and self defense purchases.
chaps•14h ago
Couple more questions:
1. "Nobody knows the real answer to this." Including you?
2. Do you think, specifically for argumentation, that Chicago is going up or down in its murder rates?
atmavatar•13h ago
> Rather cities have become violent over time and criminals are released shortly after their violent crimes.
Do you have evidence for this? Literally your prior sentence says no one knows, but now you're making a concrete claim that not only is violent crime on the rise, but that we're releasing criminals shortly thereafter.
Citation needed.
All crime statistics I've seen indicate that violent crime has been on a steady decline for decades. If you have a credible source with data that refutes this, then by all means, please provide a link to it.
> The general public is well aware of this and why there is a non-partisan rise in home and self defense purchases.
This doesn't really mean anything. It is no surprise that the perception of peril is at an all time high, given reporting on violent crime has dramatically increased over time, especially on right-leaning media. When there isn't anything sufficiently terrifying to report, stuff gets made up (e.g., immigrants eating pets).
A fearful audience is more engaged, but perhaps more importantly, a fearful public is easier to manipulate.
fzeroracer•2h ago
So if nobody knows the answer to this, why do you trust the federal government to have the answer to this? Why do you think military occupation is the solution?
jhanschoo•14h ago
What personal experiences, reporting, or studies have led you to this belief? If you have them easily available, please share them so that they can convince others reading your comment as well.
thePhytochemist•12h ago
Gun control is the main reason we have less violent crime in Canada. There is still violent crime here though, it's not a safe wonderland.
There is often impunity given to certain people for serious but nonviolent crime like identity theft and selling schedule 1 narcotics (the most illegal kind of drug in Canada). They simply keep what they steal or the profit and are allowed to carry on even if there is clear proof in possession by law enforcement. I don't think an authoritarian response is really what we need but it does make a mockery of the criminal system when this is the policy. And the damage is real, with the victims left to just put the pieces back together on their own.
rolph•14h ago
thats relative, it would be more enlightening to look at who is commiting what types of crime at what rate, then you would have useful information rather than a stark single metric of crime count.
i.e. type and freq of crime cross with income and/or occupation.
chaps•13h ago
The question wasn't asked to extract enlightenment. This person in particular does not trust statistics, so the question is aimed at understanding the edges of their lack of trust through Socratic-questioning. Like, I fundamentally disagree with everything they're saying and suggesting, but they're absolutely right that "crime statistics" are garbage and uncollected[1]. But their belief is so confident that crime in DC is so rampant that they feel that it's okay to send the national guard. That confidence comes from somewhere, so I'm trying to ink it out.
What's your take on the article saying that D.C.'s crime rate is at a 30 year low? Do you feel that things in big cities are so bad that an overreach of powers is justified in an attempt to fix it?
Bender•14h ago
What's your take on the article saying that D.C.'s crime rate is at a 30 year low?
I do not believe crime is accurately tracked [1]. Calling in the guard is not overreach when a city is demanding it through inaction.
Thanks for sharing the link, I hadn't seen that before! Very serious allegations there.
> Calling in the guard is not overreach when a city is demanding it through inaction.
Is the city calling for protection, though? There's a big difference between police departments fabricating data and a need for intervention, whether through taking control of the city police or bringing in the national guard. What's the actual situation? Why is the Trump administration militarizing the city instead of running statistics to get actual crime numbers?
dttze•8h ago
Supposedly. He was accused by the police union, who are known to lie for political reasons. Where is the evidence?
lefstathiou•14h ago
Is crime down because they are safer or because police have been told to stand down or see no point if the perp walks free an hour later?
Bottom line, I am skeptical. Cities all over have de-criminalized crime, which makes the statistics untrustworthy.
daft_pink•13h ago
People in this thread are focusing on change in crime instead of the total rate of crime. The bottom line is that total crime in Washington DC is one of the highest among states and cities and is a clear outlier.
chaps•13h ago
So you think it's justified?
daft_pink•10h ago
I don't think I would use the word justified. I would say as someone that's lived in a high crime area that I'm in support of trying to reduce crime rates in areas with high crime rates. I don't think there's anything wrong with trying to reduce the crime. Trump lives in DC. He works and his employees work in the DC area. They want to take action to reduce crime.
I spent some of my life watching people on TV demanding to defund the police and all the other nonsense while they lived in low crime areas and didn't have to suffer from the policies they are promulgating on poor people. I wish trump would do this where I used to live to be honest.
That being said, I would like to mention a basic theory that I have. If you're poor, you're often forced to buy the cheapest options in terms of housing or used cars, etc. When a neighborhood improves and is "cleaned up", property values and rents rise. Suddenly the neighborhood you live in is becomes unaffordable for poor people.
Essentially, there is an economic trap: affordability often comes bundled with low quality, and improving quality often erases affordability when talking about things like used goods or housing. It's not necessarily clear that poor people are the recipient of the benefits of lower crime in inner cities, because without high crime rates, inner cities are prime top tier real estate.
0manrho•5h ago
It's 19th of 83 (just barely making it inside the top quarter percentile) large population centers in the US, with 5,223 per 100,000 (~0.052 Per Capita) people Reported Incidents of Crime (all types) if using the adjusted[0] crime rate. If you use the data unadjusted for differences in population reporting data, it drops to 30th of 100. Via: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b... which is primarily sourced from FBI Crime Data Explorer https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/downloads
Also worthy of note is FBI's Caution Against (Crime) Ranking:
> Each year when Crime in the United States is published, many entities—news media, tourism agencies, and other groups with an interest in crime in our Nation—use reported figures to compile rankings of cities and counties. These rankings, however, are merely a quick choice made by the data user; they provide no insight into the many variables that mold the crime in a particular town, city, county, state, region, or other jurisdiction. Consequently, these rankings lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting cities and counties, along with their residents.
0: "For the 2019 population estimates used in this table, the FBI computed individual rates of growth from one year to the next for every city/town and county using 2010 decennial population counts and 2011 through 2018 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Each agency’s rates of growth were averaged; that average was then applied and added to its 2018 Census population estimate to derive the agency’s 2019 population estimate"
lefstathiou•14h ago
Agreed, I can't wait. It's this or they should install facial recognition cameras with social credit scores. Either way, something needs to happen.
Not an exaggeration, I witness some physical escalation 3 out of 5 days a week between Union Square and Midtown NYC on my daily commute. 10 minutes ago a delivery guy and a pedestrian got into it when the bicyclist ran the red light and went into the cross walk while a swarm of people were walking through it. I've personally been accosted 3x while holding hands and walking my 5-year old son to school in completely "random" acts aggression. Strangely, it's not them trying to rob me, the aim is just to harass.
CyberMacGyver•10h ago
> Agreed, I can't wait. It's this or they should install facial recognition cameras with social credit scores. Either way, something needs to happen.
Have you ever lived in a country or state with such utopia as you desire?
What if the party you didn’t vote for has control over your social score ?
happytoexplain•14h ago
>most of my comments
I clicked through five pages of your comment history and only saw one other grey comment besides this one (I have show-dead enabled).
I suggest not doing the whole "this will get downvoted, but..." thing. It creates a tone of "I'm the underdog, who knows the uncomfortable truth".
Bender•14h ago
I get dog-piled when a post is active but yes over time people come back and it usually levels out. I am not complaining at all. It's more of a disclaimer that I might trigger someone. I edited my comment to say some.
happytoexplain•14h ago
I too want us to get much harsher on crime, but I think it's naive to portray Trump's use of force as anything but a boot on the throat of dissidents and protesters, an authoritarian show of force, a purposeful provocation of his political enemies in an attempt to escalate, etc. I.e. not an honest reaction to crime statistics, obviously. That would mean reform, not ephemeral military takeover.
xnx•14h ago
> given up on enforcing laws and in effect have decriminalized crime
Military occupation as a solution to a crime problem that either doesn't exist (if you believe the statistics) or is unknown and unknowable (if you don't) seems like a very bad thing. Advocating for military occupation under these circumstances seems like you've got some other motivation than tough on crime.
Bender•14h ago
Well, this will be unpopular as [edit: some] of my comments are here ... but ... hopefully rinse and repeat in the rest of the big cities that have given up on enforcing laws and in effect have decriminalized crime. If states and cities can't keep people safe then unfortunately the national guard will have to step in. I do not envy those in the national and state guards as only handfuls of them are trained for this. I predict there will be some ugly mistakes and mishaps that may escalate some incidents.
[Edit] Thread is flagged. Will continue discussion on the next one.
chaps•14h ago
Bender•14h ago
chaps•14h ago
Do you think violent crime is on the rise?
Bender•14h ago
Nobody knows the real answer to this. Rather cities have become violent over time and criminals are released shortly after their violent crimes. The general public is well aware of this and why there is a non-partisan rise in home and self defense purchases.
chaps•14h ago
1. "Nobody knows the real answer to this." Including you?
2. Do you think, specifically for argumentation, that Chicago is going up or down in its murder rates?
atmavatar•13h ago
Do you have evidence for this? Literally your prior sentence says no one knows, but now you're making a concrete claim that not only is violent crime on the rise, but that we're releasing criminals shortly thereafter.
Citation needed.
All crime statistics I've seen indicate that violent crime has been on a steady decline for decades. If you have a credible source with data that refutes this, then by all means, please provide a link to it.
> The general public is well aware of this and why there is a non-partisan rise in home and self defense purchases.
This doesn't really mean anything. It is no surprise that the perception of peril is at an all time high, given reporting on violent crime has dramatically increased over time, especially on right-leaning media. When there isn't anything sufficiently terrifying to report, stuff gets made up (e.g., immigrants eating pets).
A fearful audience is more engaged, but perhaps more importantly, a fearful public is easier to manipulate.
fzeroracer•2h ago
jhanschoo•14h ago
thePhytochemist•12h ago
There is often impunity given to certain people for serious but nonviolent crime like identity theft and selling schedule 1 narcotics (the most illegal kind of drug in Canada). They simply keep what they steal or the profit and are allowed to carry on even if there is clear proof in possession by law enforcement. I don't think an authoritarian response is really what we need but it does make a mockery of the criminal system when this is the policy. And the damage is real, with the victims left to just put the pieces back together on their own.
rolph•14h ago
i.e. type and freq of crime cross with income and/or occupation.
chaps•13h ago
[1] https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/08/15/see-if-police-...
ysavir•14h ago
Bender•14h ago
I do not believe crime is accurately tracked [1]. Calling in the guard is not overreach when a city is demanding it through inaction.
[1] - https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/dc-police-commander...
ysavir•14h ago
> Calling in the guard is not overreach when a city is demanding it through inaction.
Is the city calling for protection, though? There's a big difference between police departments fabricating data and a need for intervention, whether through taking control of the city police or bringing in the national guard. What's the actual situation? Why is the Trump administration militarizing the city instead of running statistics to get actual crime numbers?
dttze•8h ago
lefstathiou•14h ago
Bottom line, I am skeptical. Cities all over have de-criminalized crime, which makes the statistics untrustworthy.
daft_pink•13h ago
chaps•13h ago
daft_pink•10h ago
I spent some of my life watching people on TV demanding to defund the police and all the other nonsense while they lived in low crime areas and didn't have to suffer from the policies they are promulgating on poor people. I wish trump would do this where I used to live to be honest.
That being said, I would like to mention a basic theory that I have. If you're poor, you're often forced to buy the cheapest options in terms of housing or used cars, etc. When a neighborhood improves and is "cleaned up", property values and rents rise. Suddenly the neighborhood you live in is becomes unaffordable for poor people.
Essentially, there is an economic trap: affordability often comes bundled with low quality, and improving quality often erases affordability when talking about things like used goods or housing. It's not necessarily clear that poor people are the recipient of the benefits of lower crime in inner cities, because without high crime rates, inner cities are prime top tier real estate.
0manrho•5h ago
Also worthy of note is FBI's Caution Against (Crime) Ranking:
> Each year when Crime in the United States is published, many entities—news media, tourism agencies, and other groups with an interest in crime in our Nation—use reported figures to compile rankings of cities and counties. These rankings, however, are merely a quick choice made by the data user; they provide no insight into the many variables that mold the crime in a particular town, city, county, state, region, or other jurisdiction. Consequently, these rankings lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting cities and counties, along with their residents.
Via: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-...
0: "For the 2019 population estimates used in this table, the FBI computed individual rates of growth from one year to the next for every city/town and county using 2010 decennial population counts and 2011 through 2018 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Each agency’s rates of growth were averaged; that average was then applied and added to its 2018 Census population estimate to derive the agency’s 2019 population estimate"
lefstathiou•14h ago
Not an exaggeration, I witness some physical escalation 3 out of 5 days a week between Union Square and Midtown NYC on my daily commute. 10 minutes ago a delivery guy and a pedestrian got into it when the bicyclist ran the red light and went into the cross walk while a swarm of people were walking through it. I've personally been accosted 3x while holding hands and walking my 5-year old son to school in completely "random" acts aggression. Strangely, it's not them trying to rob me, the aim is just to harass.
CyberMacGyver•10h ago
Have you ever lived in a country or state with such utopia as you desire?
What if the party you didn’t vote for has control over your social score ?
happytoexplain•14h ago
I clicked through five pages of your comment history and only saw one other grey comment besides this one (I have show-dead enabled).
I suggest not doing the whole "this will get downvoted, but..." thing. It creates a tone of "I'm the underdog, who knows the uncomfortable truth".
Bender•14h ago
happytoexplain•14h ago
xnx•14h ago
This is projection by the administration.
Trump pardoned 237 people on his first day: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_granted_executi...
bediger4000•13h ago