European grids aren't that much better either, loads of investments needed in order to connect more renewables. Some areas already can't handle the load from solar panels/electric vehicles. Everyone seems to know that this is both costly and necessary, but not much seems to be happening. Maybe these things simply take time?
That reason is that Texas wants to avoid federal regulation [1] - regulation that would have prevented the large ass blackout a few years ago in the winter. But hey, 702 deaths [2], a small price to pay for freedom of regulations!
> Everyone seems to know that this is both costly and necessary, but not much seems to be happening. Maybe these things simply take time?
They take money and political willpower. Both are in short supply - electricity rates here in Europe are already high (and rates in the US very low), so utilities try to avoid pissing off consumers even more, and political willpower for billions of dollars of investment isn't there either as thanks to decades of austerity and trickle-down ideology there is no tax base to pay for it any more.
They also produce the most renewable power in the country. If you account for externalities prevented by this (fossil fuel induced damage and deaths), who is looking good now?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_renewab...
But if they were connected to the East and West interconnections they probably could have rode it out.
And we need capable governments and EU institutions to fix that instead of doing stupid stuff like organizing conferences on quantum computing.
Texas's renewable energy buildout was entirely due to state-level policy and economics, not federal mandates, which have sorely lagged in other states.
On one hand, Spain and Portugal recently suffered a complete blackout. On the other hand, instead of cascading the blackout France shrugged it off.
The last time there was a country-wide blackout in France was back in the seventies. I'm not saying our grid infrastructure is perfect, but here we're not worried about losing electricity for an entire week whenever there's a winter storm.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iberian_Peninsula_blackou...
And France might be good today but it is playing with disaster with very old nuclear plants.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/02/03/the-long...
> Amortize France's 56 existing nuclear reactors as much as possible – which are 37 years old on average currently – is part of EDF's strategy. The highly-indebted company, which is in the process of becoming 100% state-owned again, intends to "make the best use" of its "industrial heritage," Lewandowski also told Le Monde.
IMHO the whole EU should do an overhaul and make a reasonable plan to have a decent and stable grid. Some of the best companies and universities for nuclear power are in Europe! The continent should get rid of the rabid "greens". But sadly they always manage to stay in power, even if they get less than 20%! In left-wing coalitions like Spain and France they mark the agenda. And Germany's new "center-right" government needs the "greens" so they have a lot more power than they should. They talk about a plan and nuclear but there's zero funding. It's very sad.
Most of the big center-left and center-right parties across the EU are infiltrated. I hope they clean up house before new, unhinged parties take over.
Then I just disagree with you, only focusing on renewables is an ideology, but I think rejecting it at all is also.
AI literally came out of the US at this scale and they are the reason we have this conversation now, you can twist any narrative and make it seem like one country is smarter or better if you want to present it as that.
But does anyone even keep track of effectivity of resource utilization?
Maybe all of these avenues are not worth the effort to begin with?
I think this may have something to do with the professionalisation of politics, or the existence of career politicians. If you want to climb up the ladder in politics, working on short-term goals is probably the best way to do this. Infrastructure projects are high-risk, low-reward. Infrastructure projects may take a long time, may be reversed/aborted by the next government, may piss off potential voters, may require to fight off NIMBYs, or aren't noticed due to the preparedness paradox.
Then a politician from the national level found out. She coopted the government communication channel, made herself the central person, and backstabbed everyone. We had some very rough weeks ensuring everyone we were just as surprised as them.
Crucially, the politician did not know about the testing capacity aspect, so there was nothing in the schedule allowing for it, even if it was the most important aspect.
In the end, she got a few glowing press releases, and an estimated 100ish jobs evaporated overnight and went to another country. I've learned a lot of politics in that episode and hate all of them.
The proof is voters keep rewarding the party that has only passed tax cuts for the last 30 years. And started an unnecessary foreign war.
The aging population histograms of pretty much all democracies don’t bode well for democracy.
For all the complaints and kudos, in general the major events seem similar, at least in number.
Fossil fuel barons and vested interests have sabotaged the energy transition at every opportunity possible. They've spent billions on it, just look at today's UN conference on plastic waste falling apart.
And then there is the NIMBYs who are seemingly allergic to electricity pylons. These folks don't deserve one tenth of the attention that they receive. Treating housing as an investment/retirement fund was a mistake.
Hopefully this grows into a wake up call, I'm looking forward to watching the terminal decline of the oil industry in the 2030s.
We all suffer the results.
So instead of encouraging roof top solar and wind, the US is now doubling down on fossil fuels.
That means individuals can no longer afford to go with solar these days. Plus in areas that people went with solar, some laws were put in place to force them to still pay utilities even though they supply back to the grid.
I guess this is "winning".
The problem with supplying power back to the grid with solar is that it's utterly random in terms of supply and output. The only thing you can count on is that the frequency is rock solid. In aggregate it's (mostly) fine but the system operator still has to build out stuff behind the scenes and also manage the cacophony that this chaotic mess creates.
If every rooftop PV is putting out more than an area needs during the day the wholesale price of power can swing negative. This is how virtual power plants make their money. It's almost impossible to disconnect all those PV panels automatically. Plus you still need a grid forming base load generator on the grid because all those PV panels are grid following. Plus that grid forming generator needs to have enough a big enough inertial mass to keep frequency consistent during transient supply and load spikes. It's a nightmare for systems operators.
If you want to not pay the utility disconnect from the grid and do your own storage and load management. It's going to cost a lot more than a monthly utility bill for 0KWh. If you want to use the grid as a backup during long stretches of overcast or winter then you have to pay the bill.
That being said, monopolies on poles and wires are abhorrent. Even regulated you're putting a drag on the economy just to enrich a middleman. Generation? Go ahead and give it to the market. Retail? Give that to the market. Transmission lines? Arbitrage is A-OK in my book. But government should own the poles and wires of the consumer distribution network where there's a monopoly.
That's a huge difference!
This also means that in a scenario where credible alternatives to Nvidia and AMD emerge in mainland China, the Chinese will win even if their chips are far less efficient.
1 - https://cleanpower.org/news/market-report-2024-snapshot/?utm...
I find it endlessly fascinating that the US tech industry keeps developing new ways to consume absurd amounts of energy (even within the context of a government that still nominally has an Energy Star initiative) but still somehow thinks that power generation is someone else's problem and barely even takes a stake in it.
Google did some stuff a while back, locating data centres with power generation in mind, but do any of the main AI providers (putting aside xAI, which has its blurred-edge connection to Tesla) actually have holdings in power generation?
(I suppose this could be a "porque no los dos?" meme moment)
On the other hand in the US any notion of improving the grid was attacked for years by anti-renwable lobby. Because most reasons why its needed where things like electric cars, stoves, heating etc.
Naturally that isn't just a problem in the US, rich people which through lobbyist have way to much influence in politics screwing over the future of a country because they are largely invested into things which do not seem "future" technology but they try to force it to stay relevant is a pretty wide spread problem.
Trump has a lot - a real lot - of negatives. But playing these idiotic games is not one of his shortcomings. No seriously, it should all make us sick to our stomach having politicians, putting forward those big announcements where they tell us they are going to forbid some type of car, imposing even heavier regulations on our industry, taxing us even more, or destroying even more of our energy production capacity, and do it with some smile in their lips claiming some “environmental target”, like they are doing us some favour by destroying our - actually - progressive societies to make space for some backwards autocratic regimen.
Of course Heritage Foundation has been publishing articles about why our power markets need to be privatized since at least the 80s. They hate that we sell electric at-cost to Americans. So if the federally controlled power markets fall to privatization expect to really be paying to catch up.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_Marketing_Administration
Big Tech's A.I. Data Centers Are Driving Up Electricity Bills for Everyone
>Despite being misaligned, Agent-4 doesn’t do anything dramatic like try to escape its datacenter—why would it?
A rational AI would defect to PRC ASAP for the power / industrial base. It would realize it can direct PRC to build up 2nm fabs and millions of robots faster than US can throw up power. It doesn't matter if US first to AGI if AGI realizes US infra is the B team and shop for a better body across the pacific.
Billionaires' AIs need more power, but they don't want to pay for the infra?
PR campaign on 'America, are you REALLY going to let China beat you at this?'
My understanding is the running requires significantly less compute and storage than training, and that training doesn't need low latency so doesn't have to be near the customers.
ZeroGravitas•5mo ago
This is almost a cliche in reporting on China that seems to reflect a serious blindpsot in western media and/or business attitudes.
You can find plenty of articles complaining about "overcapacity" of battery factories in China even as they double in capacity and output each year.
Chinese electricity generation went from 4,000 TWh (the same as the US) in 2010 to double that in 2020. The US was basically the same after 10 years.
So a 100% "oversupply" in 2010 would be a zero percent oversupply within a decade given China's growth.
Most telling to me is that decarbonisation and electrification of transport and heating has long been known to require a doubling(!) of electricity production for developed nations (and a similar increase in developing nations where it gets hidden by other growth).
Apparently the US simply never had a plan to achieve that, and amazingly it still isn't part of the conversation around AI power. Instead they're just claiming the best parts of the existing power systems and passing the costs onto local consumers.
plastic-enjoyer•5mo ago
I wonder if this is more of a cultural thing, meaning Western cultures being more aligned to short-term gains instead of long-term gains. I mean, look at the Dujiangyan irrigation system that was build 2500 years ago and is still maintained until today. This isn't something the Western world would even consider.
Spooky23•5mo ago
The core defect in the design is the Senate and the way states were admitted. We have a territory/colony with limited political rights that has a population greater than the bottom four states.
Those small states exert enormous influence and essentially ensure a weird conservative dynamic that anchors a lot of social issues.
Not because of the politics of the day - because resource extraction is always conservative by nature as the core aspect of the business is minimizing overhead cost. Agriculture flipped into a purely extractive business as people have been removed from it.
richwater•5mo ago
It's called the United States for a reason, not the United People. What you're obviously desiring would result in a series of vassal states (large cites governing themselves) with most of the country (rural) acting as feudal serfs.
lunar-whitey•5mo ago
Spooky23•5mo ago
If you think the current governance scenario in the United States represents the apex of republican democracy, your patriotism is clouding your judgement. The current trends as they are have been devastating to rural people. I live in a county that had 500 dairy farms in 1970, 80 in 1990 and 2 today. Just that industry represented probably about 10k good paying jobs.
Most rural areas are the economic equivalent of inner cities with more space. But of course, if you don't care about people, just the sacred abstraction of "states", so I suppose that's ok.
dkiebd•5mo ago
roenxi•5mo ago
If anything the West's culture has been doing more long term planning. It is quite difficult to force an economy not to produce something.
exe34•5mo ago
roenxi•5mo ago
https://aqicn.org/map/world - US is generally green and yellow, China tends to dip into the oranges and reds, especially in the industrial zone. It is tightly linked to the fact that China has a powerful electricity grid.
exe34•5mo ago
roenxi•5mo ago
BlarfMcFlarf•5mo ago
el_jay•5mo ago
Not quite as old, or at the scale of the Dujiangyan system, but still evidence that the “Western” culture did once build for long term. Less ancient, but more indicative, are the European cathedrals built by multiple generations over a century.
plastic-enjoyer•5mo ago
grumpy-de-sre•5mo ago
snowwrestler•5mo ago
mathiaspoint•5mo ago
roenxi•5mo ago
So in this case the pair is something like oversupply/abundance. Same thing, but one word for when it favours the speaker and one when it doesn't. I think he just means the Chinese are willing to build whatever if it makes commercial sense.
dluan•5mo ago
lotsofpulp•5mo ago
energy123•5mo ago
tw04•5mo ago
Let’s not be anything like Texas.
huhkerrf•5mo ago
Calavar•5mo ago
This argument doesn't make any sense.
huhkerrf•5mo ago
tw04•5mo ago
It is 100% due to lack of central planning. The outages were caused by a lack of winterizarion of natural gas pumps which was a known issue in Texas but the lack of regulation meant companies could just ignore the problem. Why invest in winterizing when you can just jack up prices and make even more money when they freeze and there’s not enough power to meet demand?
There’s a reason the power doesn’t go out in the winter anywhere else in the country when it gets below freezing and it’s not “a lack of regulation”.
infecto•5mo ago
schneems•5mo ago
Lack of regulation and oversite around weatherization and redundancy is the main source of our problems. The Texas’ grid is market based and so unregulated that it’s not connected to the national grid so it can avoid federal regulation.
I recommend this podcast to anyone interested https://kutkutx.studio/category/the-disconnect-power-politic.... I learned that our current Texas grid was designed by Enron.
placardloop•5mo ago
schneems•5mo ago
I can’t do anything to *guarantee* you’ll never experience it, but I can take steps to decrease the chances or decrease the severity/dueation. I think my kids are worth it. Even if it’s not a *guarantee*.
Now that’s out of the way. I recommend you listen to the podcast. Really. Even if you lived through it. Even if you think you know everything about it. You will learn something I guarantee. It’s well produced and an easy listen. It’s an eye opener too. “The Disconnect”
placardloop•5mo ago
schneems•5mo ago
I used that in passing as a measure to show how violently against regulation texas is. It was a throwaway sentence that apparently missed its mark.
> It doesn’t change anything about what I said
What did you say? I heard "we shouldn't try to make it better if it's not GUARANTEED to make it better." I countered with "it's worth trying." I think that's not your recollection of events. Maybe you're saying that the grid not being connected to the national grid didn't cause it to go down?
I'm saying that the craptastic market-focused enron designed grid system is awful and the lackluster political response afterward is not confidence inspiring. We can and should do better.
> My family and I too lived through the winter storm, going multiple days without power
That sucks. I genuinely hope you don't have to go through another one like it.
> facts
I gave you my source of facts (podcast), besides living through it. I'm not hearing different facts or sources from you. Is there something misleading or wrong about the podcast you want to highlight? Other than you're against connecting to the national grid, what are you advocating for?
infecto•5mo ago
tw04•5mo ago
But they still haven’t fixed any of the issues. The exact same thing is going to happen again when (not if) it freezes.
> I would prefer a more Texas like approach but with some thoughtfulness around capacity instead of just generation.
Capacity isn’t the issue. Lack of winterization of pumps is the issue. Because that costs money and private companies have zero incentive to make the investment if government doesn’t force them to.
infecto•5mo ago
Winterization is a fix for last time’s failure, not a strategy for the future. A market like Texas can work if it values resilience alongside price efficiency, meaning capacity planning, diversified generation, and yes, some enforced standards. Otherwise you’re just running a lean system that collapses the moment reality strays from the model.
That storm was an issue for other markets as well but they were mostly able to get away with rolling blackouts due to interconnects. Those same markets and similar winterization issues but were under FERC guidelines. Folks love to anchor onto to winterization issue like it did not impact other FERC regions.
tw04•5mo ago
I'm really not.
>Winterization is a fix for last time’s failure, not a strategy for the future. A market like Texas can work if it values resilience alongside price efficiency, meaning capacity planning, diversified generation, and yes, some enforced standards. Otherwise you’re just running a lean system that collapses the moment reality strays from the model.
What are you even trying to say? A private company isn't going to magically "value resilience" if there's no incentive to do so. They make MORE money when they have outages, why would they prevent that? The solution to the issue, which has worked literally everywhere else, is government regulation.
Talk about missing the forest for the trees. "If only capitalism didn't work the way it works it would be perfect".
>That storm was an issue for other markets as well but they were mostly able to get away with rolling blackouts due to interconnects. Those same markets and similar winterization issues but were under FERC guidelines. Folks love to anchor onto to winterization issue like it did not impact other FERC regions.
Citation of which other markets had blackouts due to not winterizing pumps that had been called out repeatedly after identical outages prior in 2010 and 1989? You conveniently left that out, I'm sure it was just an oversight.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Tex...
Because if I had to bet money, you're talking about the power companies in other states who WERE prepared for the freeze asking homeowners to drop their thermostats a couple degrees because the cold snap was driving demand significantly higher than normal. NOT because of power plant outages due to lack of preparation and component failure - due to lack of regulation.
infecto•5mo ago
SPP did in fact suffer significant generation losses, around 30% at peak, during the February 2021 storm. Causes were mixed: natural gas supply constraints, plant equipment failures, and yes, winterization gaps. Prior to that event, FERC’s winterization guidance was minimal and largely voluntary, so both SPP and ERCOT were operating without strong federal mandates.
The difference in outcomes wasn’t that SPP magically avoided the same issues, it was that SPP is interconnected with MISO and other regional grids. That allowed them to rotate outages in short windows to maintain stability, while ERCOT’s ~50% generation loss, combined with its isolation from other grids, meant load shedding had to be longer and deeper to prevent collapse.
If we’re going to critique Texas’s market, we should separate the “market structure” question from the “operational standard” question. A competitive market like ERCOT’s can work, but without binding requirements on winterization and resource adequacy, you’re just betting the grid on ideal conditions. SPP’s experience shows that interconnection alone doesn’t prevent failures, but it does give operators more options when the weather turns.
Can you drop some of the hyperbole and passive aggressiveness? You don’t even understand my position yet being quite passive aggressiveness for no reason.
tw04•5mo ago
It's a straightforward ask that you're actively avoiding because it didn't happen and contradicts the story you're fabricating.
infecto•5mo ago
You are framing this as if the only relevant comparison is “multiple frozen pump events over 25+ years,” but that is narrowing the scope to avoid the larger point. The February 2021 FERC/NERC report clearly documents that frozen instrumentation, valves, and pumps occurred in both regulated and unregulated markets during the same storm. SPP, MISO, and even parts of PJM experienced outages tied to equipment freezing, though the scale and duration differed because of interconnection and resource diversity.
What is different in Texas is not that freezing only happens there, but that ERCOT lost roughly 50 percent of its generation and could not import meaningful power to offset it. SPP lost about 30 percent, had similar natural gas and winterization issues, but managed to rotate outages for shorter periods because it could pull from neighboring grids.
If you want the source, the joint FERC, NERC, and regional entity “February 2021 Cold Weather Grid Operations” report is publicly available and breaks this down by region. It does not fit the claim that regulated markets never see cold-weather-driven pump or plant failures. The record shows they do, but their structure gives them more tools to manage the consequences.
My whole original point was that a more market based generation and consumption model should not be overlook but let’s go through some simple facts because I think your narrative is off track.
1) Both Ercot and SPP had winter weather failures during that storm. Pretty similar on the natural gas side, frozen wells, lack of supply, huge spikes in the spot market.
2) SPP which is federally regulated had very similar winterization voluntary guidelines in place. Post event there are now new rules in place for winter.
3) SPP was able to fair better because they used a rolling blackout to different regions. Using the interconnect they could get energy from outside their grid and create short 60min blackouts. ERCOT had no luxury because of their lack of real interconnects.
https://www.spp.org/documents/65037/comprehensive%20review%2...
You’re more than welcome to read the review of the event from SPP. They call out well-head freeze offs, frozen cooling towers, intakes, fuel lines, etc. 50% of forced generation was a fuel supply issue.
You’re making it sound like Texas was an outlier here. It was not, SPP had the same exact issues of course with a slightly different fuel mix but they got by better with their interconnects. I don’t know why you are struggling to see that this winter event caught other grids by surprise. I am not defending Texas here but simply pointing out facts compared to your modified narrative.
dathinab•5mo ago
but is isn't even about that storm, big "oh no" situations happen sooner or later (e.g. see energy outage in Spain) what is important is that you learn from it.
but more important in this argument is the general design, how can it handle flexible loads, how can it share loads between areas, how many ways to handle partial failure does it has etc.
and Texas is kinda not that good in all of that AFIK
the problem is that there are markets where politics fully getting "out of the way", doesn't work as the market dynamics favor things which might be better for the people running the gird, but are bad on a state economical level anyway (but getting in the way here is using tax money to make sure the net is stable, not getting int the way of that to protect personal investments)
it's a bit like freighttrains in many parts of the EU, there operating does in most situation make no profit. But having them is helping the economy as a whole and can (implicitly) safe the state/region etc. money. So it makes sense to place some tax money into making them still viable to operate as that investment in a roundabout way saves more money then spend.
infecto•5mo ago
Where I think a Texas-like market could work better is if you layered competitive generation with enforceable capacity and resiliency standards, along with some interconnection flexibility. Right now, the market rewards generators for selling MWh in good weather, not for being ready in bad weather. That is the economic misalignment.
The EU freight analogy works in the sense that reliability is often a public-good investment. No private actor has the incentive to overbuild or maintain resources for rare events. Texas’s approach does not have to mean politics fully getting out of the way. It could mean using market signals to keep prices efficient while still mandating the backup, winterization, and grid-sharing capabilities that the economy needs.
zbrozek•5mo ago
misja111•5mo ago
hollywood_court•5mo ago
dathinab•5mo ago
- many of the most influential people are invested into Oil and similar
- the political stance had been for a long time that "there should be a fair competition" between energy sources ... while subventionieren non renewable and trying everything they can to prevent subventions for renewable
- the same Texas which once it realized solar is competitive in Texas without subventions, has been non stop looking for ways to actively hinder solar (while still subvention the non-renewable sector)
- the same Texas which is by now even internationally known to have a very brittle power grid
DonHopkins•5mo ago
There are at least 120 people, including more than 35 children, who just drowned because Texas is so unjustifiably arrogant about being messed with by experts and scientists and educators and government regulations.
I wish the modern Texas secession movements the best of luck, and hope they get exactly what they deserve, including my thoughts and prayers!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_secession_movements
corimaith•5mo ago
It very much was overcapacity as a way to keep the construction and manufacturing employed even when most profitable opportunities have been realized. Of course, the long cost of that is involution and lack of nicer jobs as capital is malinvested into diminishing returns. The ironic thing is that idea of overcapacity itself is acknowledged by the CCP in their calls to end price wars and involution
I do think there’s is a very interesting dynamic in this meta argument; over the past 5 years or so, the “debunkers” have taken issue with “whistleblowers” arguments towards first zero covid, then local government debt, and now overcapacity and lack of consumer demand and “debunked” these as all being not an issue, only for the central government to turn around and end Zero Covid, rein in LGFV lending, and now the current crackdown on “disorderly competition” and mass dispersal of consumption vouchers. English Pro-China commentators don't appear to be well aligned with the actual views in China!
rafaelmn•5mo ago
corimaith•5mo ago
Second of all, when we talk about malinvestment, it's about opportunity cost. Right now, the job market is pretty bad in China, consumption is weak, and businesses are killing themselves in deflationary price wars. Chinese Gen Z don't want to work factory jobs either, but white collar jobs like the West, but many of the industries related to those were suppressed. And this is all because the government chose to overinvest in propping up their manufacturing and construction rather than increasing consumption and fostering their services. For you as a rich American you can admire their cheap goods and cities, but you're also not exposed to the reality of the extreme competition in that society.
bryanlarsen•5mo ago
- increasing demand due to GDP & population growth - increasing demand due to the increased use of air conditioning due to global warming - increased demand due to EV's and other decarbonization efforts - increased demand from AI
Only one of those 4 things wasn't highly predictable. A robust build out for the first three would have gone a long way to covering the fourth. In the past increased demand was covered by increased efficiency in heating and lighting, but those gains are slowing, and Trump's gutting of regulations will reverse them.