(I'm with the "you're going to have to hire those back when you realize what's happened to code quality and maintainability" camp.)

Tech layoffs and failing AI pilots have the same root cause: Business Idiots in leadership who believe that blindly doing whatever BigCo just did will automatically make Line Go Up.

tech layoffs have nothing to do with AI; the business has realized that they are not getting the expected marginal increase in returns for marginal headcount expansion, and while historically layoffs can cause brand damage and need to be avoided, the mainstream media is giving companies a pass because everybody is doing it

Has tech investment growth slowed as focus has shifted to defense ETFs and the new 5% NATO defense spending target and trite solveable cold war bs?

It might be possible that AI has gotten so expensive that some employers won't be able to afford real people for the foreseeable future until after some kind of financial recovery occurs.