Has SpaceX delivered on their promise to build a lunar lander? Or did they just take that money and bail with it?
FatalLogic•2h ago
Isn't the SpaceX lunar lander plan to just use the Starship upper stage with some modifications?
Then, they are working on it by working on Starship
Edit: 'two years' is unlikely, but Mars does have an atmosphere, so something like a Dragon capsule could land there with a parachute. That's not going to work so well on the moon
King-Aaron•1h ago
I believe that was the idea, but I was asking genuinely. I recall them having the tender for the artemis lander (or something along those lines) and now they've seemingly gone radio silent on it.
(Note that the vastly thinner Martian atmosphere is a huge issue for parachutes. And obviously there's no water for a "splash down" landing.)
NitpickLawyer•1h ago
> Edit: 'two years' is unlikely,
You've been baited by a post from 2016 ... If you look at OPs post history it's mostly spaceman bad related. A clue, perhaps.
Anyway, a bit of context:
At the time of this post, SpaceX was looking at using the Dragon tech tree to land on both the Moon and Mars, using Dragon variants. Gray Dragon for the Moon and Red Dragon for Mars. One would use just retro-propulsion and the other would use a heat shield, parachutes and retro propulsion.
Around the time this was announced they were hoping to develop a retro propulsion mode for using Dragon's SuperDraco thrusters (the ones used for capsule escape when flying with passengers) to enable landing on land. NASA didn't want this tech, as they considered the cost/benefit - risk/reward analysis not worth it. So SpaceX found themselves in a situation of developing something that their main customer didn't want, for little to no benefit for their commercial offerings.
Hence, the idea was shelved. (I think, but not sure, that they later enabled the SuperDracos to be able to activate and soft land in case of catastrophic failure of the parachutes. Or they were thinking about it)
Instead they came up with an alternative tech stack. The MCTS (Mars Colonial Transport System? I think) later turned into BFR (Big "falcon" Rocket) later turned into the Starship project.
The Starship is what's currently being tested, with the 10th test flight happening these days (scrubbed last night for weather). It's also what they'll use for their Starlink big sats, Moon and Mars.
So, while it's true that Red Dragons didn't "line up like trains" for mars in 2018, the proposed architecture is much more ambitious, and obviously taking longer. But they've flown the stack 9 times already, so they're making progress. Their factory is already pumping 3rd generation engines, ships and 2nd generation boosters. (They've caught the boosters 2 times, AND successfully reflown one already)
TheAlchemist•58m ago
Yeah, I must admit I'm quite obsessed with 'spaceman bad'. It's absolutely fascinating that the guy managed to sell for example millions of cars who were supposed to become Robotaxis with an OTA update 5 years ago... Or promising to go to Mars in 2 years, every year for the past 10 years. None of which will happen in this decade anyway.
And millions of people are still falling for it. Simply amazing and historic times.
xyzzy123•21m ago
Whats the realistic alternative?
Do you think Musk-coded things will grow less than the west, or more?
(i.e, faster, slower, or same? why or why not?)
NitpickLawyer•1h ago
> Or did they just take that money and bail with it?
The Starship portion of the Artemis contracts are structured such that SpX only gets money once certain milestones are completed (i.e. reach orbit, show orbital re-fuelling, land on the Moon, etc.
Just an aside, SpX is one of the few (only?) big space companies that don't bid on "cost+" contracts. They've only taken fixed cost contracts so far. And they've saved NASA ~ 7-14B$ to date on those contracts (by NASA's own numbers). Just look at the ISS crew program, they've taken ~1/2 of what Boeing took, they've finished the first tranche of crew missions, they're now on the 2nd tranche, and Boeing hasn't flown one crew mission yet. In fact they've fumbled the test flight so bad that there's a real possibility that they'll have to re-do it.
TheAlchemist•1h ago
For those who didn't notice - this is from 2016 !
mkl•47m ago
I suggest putting "(2016)" in the title if you can edit it.
TheAlchemist•32m ago
I actually didn't put it in the title on purpose - to illustrate the absurdity of it.
King-Aaron•2h ago
FatalLogic•2h ago
Then, they are working on it by working on Starship
Edit: 'two years' is unlikely, but Mars does have an atmosphere, so something like a Dragon capsule could land there with a parachute. That's not going to work so well on the moon
King-Aaron•1h ago
bell-cot•1h ago
(Note that the vastly thinner Martian atmosphere is a huge issue for parachutes. And obviously there's no water for a "splash down" landing.)
NitpickLawyer•1h ago
You've been baited by a post from 2016 ... If you look at OPs post history it's mostly spaceman bad related. A clue, perhaps.
Anyway, a bit of context:
At the time of this post, SpaceX was looking at using the Dragon tech tree to land on both the Moon and Mars, using Dragon variants. Gray Dragon for the Moon and Red Dragon for Mars. One would use just retro-propulsion and the other would use a heat shield, parachutes and retro propulsion.
Around the time this was announced they were hoping to develop a retro propulsion mode for using Dragon's SuperDraco thrusters (the ones used for capsule escape when flying with passengers) to enable landing on land. NASA didn't want this tech, as they considered the cost/benefit - risk/reward analysis not worth it. So SpaceX found themselves in a situation of developing something that their main customer didn't want, for little to no benefit for their commercial offerings.
Hence, the idea was shelved. (I think, but not sure, that they later enabled the SuperDracos to be able to activate and soft land in case of catastrophic failure of the parachutes. Or they were thinking about it)
Instead they came up with an alternative tech stack. The MCTS (Mars Colonial Transport System? I think) later turned into BFR (Big "falcon" Rocket) later turned into the Starship project.
The Starship is what's currently being tested, with the 10th test flight happening these days (scrubbed last night for weather). It's also what they'll use for their Starlink big sats, Moon and Mars.
So, while it's true that Red Dragons didn't "line up like trains" for mars in 2018, the proposed architecture is much more ambitious, and obviously taking longer. But they've flown the stack 9 times already, so they're making progress. Their factory is already pumping 3rd generation engines, ships and 2nd generation boosters. (They've caught the boosters 2 times, AND successfully reflown one already)
TheAlchemist•58m ago
And millions of people are still falling for it. Simply amazing and historic times.
xyzzy123•21m ago
Do you think Musk-coded things will grow less than the west, or more?
(i.e, faster, slower, or same? why or why not?)
NitpickLawyer•1h ago
The Starship portion of the Artemis contracts are structured such that SpX only gets money once certain milestones are completed (i.e. reach orbit, show orbital re-fuelling, land on the Moon, etc.
Just an aside, SpX is one of the few (only?) big space companies that don't bid on "cost+" contracts. They've only taken fixed cost contracts so far. And they've saved NASA ~ 7-14B$ to date on those contracts (by NASA's own numbers). Just look at the ISS crew program, they've taken ~1/2 of what Boeing took, they've finished the first tranche of crew missions, they're now on the 2nd tranche, and Boeing hasn't flown one crew mission yet. In fact they've fumbled the test flight so bad that there's a real possibility that they'll have to re-do it.