I've been examining the extent to which a company's market capitalisation is dependent on its founder remaining in leadership.

An intriguing perspective is provided by prediction markets, which enable direct comparisons of outcomes such as Tesla with Musk as CEO versus Tesla without Musk as CEO.

This can be measured thanks to conditional markets, which indicate that Musk's presence itself owns between 9 and 10% of Tesla's value, albeit with a very small sample.

Can these markets accurately reflect value of founder dependency or are they just pure speculations?