PLTR is the most de-risked 10x opportunity on the market

1•ngninja•5mo ago

I've been digging into the financials, and the bear case on Palantir is officially dead. They are now consistently GAAP profitable, which was the last major hurdle. The risk is gone.

Here's the simple math:

Palantir's market cap is hovering around $370 Billion.

Their software is becoming the essential AI backbone for both government and commercial clients—it's far more critical than a simple CRM from a company like Salesforce (CRM).

Salesforce has a market cap of around $245 Billion.

Palantir has already surpassed Salesforce and is on its way to becoming a trillion-dollar company. Given its importance, it should trade at a valuation closer to Microsoft. A simple 3x from here to over $1 Trillion is a conservative baseline, and a 10x is not out of the question as AI adoption accelerates.

People who are still complaining about Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) don't get it. That's just the cost of acquiring the best engineering talent on the planet. I'm loading up before this is a $1,000 stock.

Comments

Fade_Dance•5mo ago

>At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?”

-Cisco CEO, post-DotCom.

DaveZale•5mo ago

isn't AI way overhyped?

billconan•5mo ago

I never understand what they do. And I saw people asking the same question on Reddit and wired. So I'm not the only one.

VCs once told me, if a company can't describe what it does in a simple sentence, that's a warning sign.

I don't want to invest in things I don't understand.

Visual data modelling in the browser (open source)

Show HN: Tharos – CLI to find and autofix security bugs using local LLMs

Oddly Simple GUI Programs

The New Playbook for Leaders [pdf]

Interactive Unboxing of J Dilla's Donuts

OneCourt helps blind and low-vision fans to track Super Bowl live

Rudolf Vrba

Autism Incidence in Girls and Boys May Be Nearly Equal, Study Suggests

Wellness Hotels Discovery Application

NASA delays moon rocket launch by a month after fuel leaks during test

Sebastian Galiani on the Marginal Revolution

Ask HN: Are we at the point where software can improve itself?

Binance Gives Trump Family's Crypto Firm a Leg Up

Reverse engineering Chinese 'shit-program' for absolute glory: R/ClaudeCode

Indian Culture

Show HN: Maravel-Framework 10.61 prevents circular dependency

The age of a treacherous, falling dollar

Ask HN: AI Generated Diagrams

Microsoft Account bugs locked me out of Notepad – are Thin Clients ruining PCs?

Show HN: A delightful Mac app to vibe code beautiful iOS apps

Show HN: Gemini Station – A local Chrome extension to organize AI chats

Welfare states build financial markets through social policy design

Market orientation and national homicide rates

California urges people avoid wild mushrooms after 4 deaths, 3 liver transplants

Matthew Shulman, co-creator of Intellisense, died 2019 March 22

Show HN: SuperLocalMemory – AI memory that stays on your machine, forever free

Show HN: Pyrig – One command to set up a production-ready Python project

Fast Response or Silence: Conversation Persistence in an AI-Agent Social Network [pdf]

C and C++ dependencies: don't dream it, be it

Show HN: Vbuckets – Infinite virtual S3 buckets