There is one problem with prediction markets, they will influence the processes they are predicting. It is like betting on sports events: if bets are high enough, then athletes would like to get a share. Professional athletes have high salaries, so they will be expensive to buy (hopefully), but what about cultural events? Who will get an Oscar prize? How much bribe money is needed to win an Oscar prize?
I believe there is a second issue: disinformation. The more money in the prediction markets, the bigger incentives to start a disinformation campaign. Like we have not enough disinformation already.
I really like prediction markets and their ability to predict, but these issues seem fundamental to me, they are inseparable from prediction markets.
theothertimcook•2d ago
It’s just gambling .
How these crypto bros gotta try to evangelise everything.
ordu•2d ago
I believe there is a second issue: disinformation. The more money in the prediction markets, the bigger incentives to start a disinformation campaign. Like we have not enough disinformation already.
I really like prediction markets and their ability to predict, but these issues seem fundamental to me, they are inseparable from prediction markets.