But what does this mean for us, Humans ?
dive in for more info here⬇ https://www.mandar.cloud/blog.html?slug=the-world-after-3-5-...
But what does this mean for us, Humans ?
dive in for more info here⬇ https://www.mandar.cloud/blog.html?slug=the-world-after-3-5-...
Why do all of these articles have completely unrealistic timeframes? This feels like someone trying their hand at the https://ai-2027.com/ project, which was based on some mathematically flimsy models that models that have been widely debunked.
Typically people also wrap character and whatnot around this skeleton and call it a “science fiction short story.” That also requires that you justify parts of the narrative, though, otherwise people might claim that what you’re writing is unrealistic.
The point is not that LLMs themselves take us to 2125, but that they are the spark in a chain of exponential advances that will.
I don't see a strong argument here, more just a hope that something will spark this sci fi trajectory you describe. I'm sure big enough changes are afoot, but I think that the AI we have now will turn out to be much more of a 'normal' technology than most people expect.
Even were that to happen, it is unlikely that a UBI would be put in place, or if it were, that it would be successful. An Ouroboros of taxing owners to pay the public who buy from the owners wouldn't be successful. The reality is that were all workers to be replaced by AI, the economy would collapse. Then, the owners of the systems would be forced to liquidate their assets, the prices on GPUs would crater, and the AI means of production would be redistributed among the hands of the public. Then, small models would be driving productivity in the new wave of startups following the crash. This pattern could repeat many times.
sema4hacker•5mo ago
Two and a half years from now? Sound VERY optimistic.
mandarwagh•5mo ago
and even i get this wrong its just an thought experiment and has a 50% chance
sky2224•5mo ago
Can you provide an actually credible source that shows this? And what do you mean by "displaced"? Sure, AI is aiding, but it is nowhere close to replacing.
So far, the people I've seen mentioning that AI is taking jobs haven't actually provided evidence of this being the case.
sixtyj•5mo ago
Everybody wants AI, it is similar to ebook readers will displace books, websites will displace other marketing channels, PDAs will displace desktop computers, and tablets will displace PDAs etc…
AI fever it is and we should take some drugs to cool down :)
mandarwagh•5mo ago
sixtyj•5mo ago
mandarwagh•5mo ago
iLoveOncall•5mo ago
ChatGPT came out almost 3 years ago.
> AI has already displaced coding, design, research, and support roles
No it hasn't.
> Once businesses see it can fully replace repetitive work at near-zero cost
It can't.
Not surprising takes from someone with 0 professional experience and in their second year of college though.
mandarwagh•5mo ago
These are real workforce impacts, not hypotheticals. As for “replacement,” full substitution is rare at first, but businesses cut hiring the moment a tool can do the same task faster and cheaper. That is exactly how displacement begins.
And while I may be early in my career, the evidence is not about opinion, it is about adoption curves and cost pressures already playing out.