I’m just hoping someone more in the know than me tells me whether this is nothing or the start of the next GFC.

My anecdote is that I’m a runner and I run through my downtown and I see a lot of vacancy and for lease signs and no one down there except homeless people. Doesn’t even feel like people work in the skyscrapers anymore.

For the people rushing in to call this the beginning another great financial crisis: remember that back then the tower of cards that collapsed wasn’t the mortgage backed securities themselves but the spiderweb of derivatives and secondary securitizations built on them.

Obviously everyone who invested in MBS’s lost their shirt, but the general economy was hurt by the sheer level of exposure to MBS’s and the suddenness with which the realization of their corruption hit. I’m no expert, but I see no reason to believe a similar level of exposure and surprise is at play here.

I think I can follow this artikel, but am unsure. Are these mortgages backed by the underlying real estate?

“ Among the newly delinquent multifamily mortgages was the $62 million mortgage on Park West Village in Manhattan. The 4.65% fixed-rate mortgage on the 850-unit property, built in 1950 and renovated in 2014, was originated in August 2022. In August 2025, it became 30 days delinquent.”

62 million / 850 = 80k per unit. Seems easy to cover?

Yet, shares in commercial property firms has rallied recently. The article says this is due to dwindling supply and a shift to PE financing.

>this quarter is the first since the start of the pandemic when America’s five biggest commercial-property firms—cbre, Colliers, Cushman & Wakefield, jll and Newmark—have lifted their earnings outlooks simultaneously. The share prices of the five are up by between 23% and 45% so far this year, and several have hit records.

https://archive.is/X4muY