Chinese tech dominance is inevitable and anything the US tries to do to contain it will just hasten the inevitable.

“grey market” smugglers gonna keep working on it

I'm sure there are LOTS of issues that need to be addressed, but the demand for the chips are so high that the incentives are overwhelmingly in favor of this continuing. If the reported margins on the Nvidia chips are as high as the claims make it out to be (73+% ??) this will easily find a world wide market.

It was also frustratingly predictable from the moment the US started trying to limit the sales of the chips. America has slowed the speed of Chinese AI development by a tiny number of years, if that, in return for losing total domination of the GPU market.

Because Cuda moat in China is wrecked artificially by political reason rather than technical reason

AMD probably don't have chinese state backing, presumably, where profit is less of a concern and they can do it unprofitably for many years (decades even) as long as the end outcome is dominance.

Most chipmakers in China are making or have made their new generation of products CUDA-compatible.

1. AMD isn’t different enough. They’d be subject to the same export restrictions and political instability as Nvidia, so why would global companies switch to them?

2. CUDA has been a huge moat, but the incentives are incredibly strong for everybody except Nvidia to change that. The fact that it was an insurmountable moat five years ago in a $5B market does not mean it’s equally powerful in a $300B market.

3. AMD’s culture and core competencies are really not aligned to playing disruptor here. Nvidia is generally more agile and more experimental. It would have taken a serious pivot years ago for AMD to be the right company to compete.