If AI revenue by 2030 needs to be more than the combined 2024 revenue of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia just to recoup the costs of depreciation on the chips then it's a bubble.
Comments
fullshark•2h ago
Good luck timing the burst, everything is a bubble
ImPrajyoth•1h ago
Earth is?
WorldPeas•51m ago
Check out page 6 chart 1 "US real GDP growth contribution from tech capex"
A bubble much like the dotcom bubble. but the internet didn't go away...it was flourishing 3 years later.
zerosizedweasle•2h ago
Yeah but those companies went bankrupt.
cranberryturkey•1h ago
True...the ones that raised $2M with just a domain name and vaporware. THat's notwhat I'm seeing in AI right now
zerosizedweasle•1h ago
No, WorldCom and 360Networks were fiber companies. A lot of internet infrastructure companies went under.
cranberryturkey•1h ago
Yes, but my point is the fundamental tech didn't disappear. Those companies failed but thousands have been flourishing ever since.
zerosizedweasle•1h ago
I get your point. I'm not talking about AI in the future of the economy after the bubble burst settles. Or about the technology in the future. I'm talking about the cold hard economic calculus / numbers staring us near term in the face.
andsoitis•1h ago
I think the issue is your framing. You say “AI is a bubble…”, when I think you mean more something like “the gold rush around AI is a bubble…”
leakycap•1h ago
Forecasting the global AI market revenue in 2030 when we're only about 1,000 days since ChatGPT launched seems unlikely to be accurate
zerosizedweasle•1h ago
Yeah but that's where the numbers need to be to make the current spending add up.
fullshark•2h ago
ImPrajyoth•1h ago
WorldPeas•51m ago
https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/ins...