This is the thing that would bother me the most, knowing that in all likelihood there was some innocuous thing I did or didn’t do that had such a huge butterfly effect. You can’t think that way very much or you’ll go crazy; you can’t walk through life trying to dodge invisible particles. Still a mind fuck.
Something that is quite unintuitive is that risk is remarkable fungible - one source of risk is very much like another. Once you properly internalize this you can treat risk literally like radiation. Keep a virtual dosimeter on you and adjust your lifetime exposure accordingly.
There are a couple of consequences for this. First is that you can replace a source of risk with another, to keep below your desired threshold. You start learning to fly, you stop riding motorcycles. Second is that every risk reduction you do is still valuable in itself. You wouldn't start getting monthly CT scans just because you visited Chernobyl - same with risk, wearing your seatbelt is independent of riding motorcycles.
Sounds obvious, but that's the reverse of what most people do. Instead of risk compensation they use certain behaviors as definitions for their risk tolerance. "I already smoke, why should I care about grilling indoors?" This is an incredibly common attitude, and it's the very opposite of what's rational.
Is this real? I know demolition people, carpenters, smokers, people who have survived fires and more, these people are in their 70s and 80s, how does one particle do this?
bobbyprograms•4mo ago