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U.S. Lost 32,000 Private-Sector Jobs in September, Says Payroll Processor

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/u-s-lost-32-000-jobs-in-september-says-payroll-processor-06528340
159•JumpCrisscross•1h ago

Comments

sampton•49m ago
That's one way to lower the interest rate.
mlinhares•40m ago
If nobody can borrow money for anything it doesn't matter what the interest rate is.

I'm very smart!

silisili•20m ago
Powell said explicitly a year or two ago that it was his goal to bump unemployment numbers to tame inflation. Kinda sick to think about, but, here we are I guess.
alostpuppy•14m ago
Isn’t that the charge of the federal reserve? I think this is what he is required to do statutorily.
nielsbot•7m ago
What he is doing is counter to the Fed charter, but if you're pro-Capital, you like some unemployment because it disciplines Labor.

> The chair's main responsibility is to carry out the mandate of the Fed, which is to promote the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.

(per Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082415/what-...)

chb•7m ago
An astute and accurate observation. However, there is no numeric target set in the mandate you allude to: "The Federal Reserve was created by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. In 1977, Congress amended the Federal Reserve Act (FRA) to provide greater clarity about the goals of monetary policy. The amended FRA directs the Board of Governors and the FOMC to conduct monetary policy “so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” [https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/files/the-fed-exp...]
Hammershaft•13m ago
That's the inherent nature of the interest rate. Both unemployment and inflation have bad consequences, so the role of the central bank is to balance rates to target a specific inflation rate.
ipaddr•10m ago
Yes lets blame Powell he pushed Trump into putting tariffs on everything and gutted the remaining manufacturing jobs.
carabiner•49m ago
Satirical IG post I saw from a college professor: "In 2050, I'll be getting emails from high school students about research opportunities, because the average college will require 2 publications to get in and will cost $500k." Fertility rates are plummeting globally for this reason in addition to housing, and earth has reached its carrying capacity. There are no entry-level jobs, because "entry level" now requires years of experience: https://www.zippia.com/advice/entry-level-jobs-pay-experienc....

If you decide to have kids today, you should factor in the cost that they may significant require financial support into their 30s. I know a couple of guys over 40, including a laid-off SWE, living with their parents again.

com2kid•42m ago
> "In 2050, I'll be getting emails from high school students about research opportunities, because the average college will require 2 publications to get in and will cost $500k."

From my general understanding, those are already the numbers for elite colleges.

I hear complaints about kids that have published research, have started local charities, and have completed most of an undergrad degree already, that they are still getting rejected from top colleges.

sarchertech•38m ago
Harvard costs about $350k all in for 4 years.

But if you make under $200k a year they wave tuition, and over that you start paying a prorated rate until assistance phases out.

carabiner•35m ago
Yeah it's extraordinary how prepared today's elite undergrads are. Population demand has outpaced spots in these colleges, and so that's why I don't believe "grade inflation" is a thing. The kids are just way, way smarter and more productive than 60 years ago, just as workers are.
triceratops•30m ago
Well yeah if they've completed most of the degree already why admit them /s
mothballed•20m ago
If they are that enterprising and go-getters, I paid some guy almost $10k to roof my house, and he gave me an invoice showing the price of materials were only about $3500 of that. He did it with a few friends in two days, maybe 60 man-hours of work. All they had was a few ladders, harnesses, an ancient truck, and they didn't look like the sort to have wasted much of it on insurance or overhead.
all2•15m ago
I would expect kiddos who are all-in on going to college won't be able to see any other opportunity as acceptable. They've spent almost their entire lives trying to get into a good college. No college may not seem like even an option.
zwarag•13m ago
That’s 108 dollars per hour. That seem reasonable?
guardiangod•11m ago
>wasted much of it on insurance or overhead.

Insurance and overhead (eg. safety harass) exist for a reason other than to drain your wallet. Roofing is also a physically difficult job. You won't find many 50+ year old to couch on a rooftop all day, regardless of pays.

magicalist•5m ago
> and they didn't look like the sort to have wasted much of it on insurance or overhead

This is in general a really bad idea. Not only can you be on the hook if they make a mistake with the install, or mess something up like venting that ends up damaging appliances or plumbing, but if one of them falls off your roof, depending on the circumstances you could be personally liable for their possibly life long medical treatment (or end up in an extended lawsuit as they try to claim that you personally directed their work). Make sure your contractors have insurance.

sarchertech•41m ago
The problems that you’re highlighting are self correcting. If the fertility rate drops, houses and spots at colleges become more available.
piker•39m ago
Agree with both, and you can see this in prep school admissions in the UK, but that adjustment might take a generation.
sarchertech•30m ago
Definitely might take time. But a generation is 15 years. The timeline the OP was talking about was 30-40 years from now.
bell-cot•36m ago
True...eventually. But recall the old saw about how long the market can stay irrational.
sarchertech•29m ago
100%, but the OP is talking about 30-40 years in the future.
bell-cot•9m ago
Yeah. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades
Analemma_•35m ago
That's not how it works. Housing prices are not allowed to go down, because a massive chunk of Boomer equity is bound up in them. If there's ever a danger of housing prices going down, bailouts will be issued and supply tightened until the "natural" state of things is restored and they go up again.
apercu•33m ago
Boomers won't be alive much longer though?
mothballed•28m ago
All the shitty covenants they put in much/most of even the shittiest of wasteland around me still exist though.

There was one piece of absolute shithole land I looked at because I was in the process of building a house.

Some dead guy decided to encumber it by requiring me to build a gigantic house if I wanted live there. Reversing it would require something as onerous roughly as getting all people in a 10 mile radius to stand on one foot while reciting the entire bible from memory. Technically possible so it holds up in court as not being a perpetual covenant, but for all intent in purposes was.

You would not believe how much land boomers basically ruined forever when they mindlessly engaged in some wack covenants back around the 80s.

Jtsummers•27m ago
https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the... - Look at the 60 and older groupings. Those are boomers and older generations. The youngest boomers are about 60, so 15 years average remaining for them but potentially 20-30 more years of boomers as a significant percentage of the population.
SoftTalker•7m ago
But many are are/will be downsizing, moving to retirement communities or otherwise cashing out of their houses well before they die.
sarchertech•31m ago
Boomers are 60-80 years old now. They aren’t going to be the problem 30-40 years from now which is the timeline the OP is talking about.
jf22•27m ago
It won't be for a long time. World population may increase well into the 2100s.
UncleOxidant•19m ago
But US population will likely peak much sooner than that. Especially as we're starting to heavily limit immigration.
parasti•27m ago
First-home buyers aren't the ones causing prices to go up.
JumpCrisscross•22m ago
New households absolutely are. Whether they choose to rent or buy is secondary.
baq•9m ago
Average age of a home buyer in the us is what? 50-60ish? Should be 20-25.
sodpspsosk•5m ago
Mass self deportation is a fairly easy solution too. It’d cause an immediate glut of homes and jobs. It would also cause economic shock, but that would by and large hurt the capital class. We are in for pain either way, might as well ensure the next generations have ample opportunity.

Cut back/tax on legal immigration, tax remittances harder, and penalize those employing illegal immigrants. None of this ICE kabuki theatre is needed.

Obviously this won’t happen because both left & right want immigration.

nostrademons•36m ago
I feel like this view suffers from https://xkcd.com/605/. The future is not a linear progression from the present; as linear (or exponential!) extrapolations become progressively more absurd, they get replaced by qualitatively different systems that fit peoples' needs as they exist now.

I have young kids. I don't worry too much about how they're going to afford college education or get a job or afford to retire, because I don't believe college or jobs or retirement will exist in the form it does today. They'll be replaced by systems that actually work in the world that they'll grow up in. My job is to help them survive, and ideally to keep them fed and clothed and housed in the meantime. I'm training them to be adaptable, to think and act for themselves, and to have a good grounding in fundamental skills like reading/writing/rithmetic that I don't think will go anywhere. But the specifics of today's world will definitely be going away, because today's world doesn't work.

SoftTalker•24m ago
I'm not sure why you think that. From what I can see, the undergraduate college experience of today is basically the same as it was in the 1980s. And since then we've had the entire rise of the internet, mobile tech, social media, and all the rest of it. Kids still live in dorms and sit in lecture halls and listen to professors lecture. Why do you think it's going to be much different 15-20 years from now?

Sure there is a lot that can be done online, but that hasn't really impacted the fundamental experience of "going to college" for most young adults who decide to do that.

nostrademons•14m ago
The cost and benefits have fallen way out of whack. The average college tuition has tripled (after inflation-adjusting) since 1980 [1]. Meanwhile, an increasing number of college graduates are unemployed, and the wage premium for a college education is declining.

The college experience hasn't changed much (indeed, if anything it's improved) because colleges are sinking large amounts of money into providing a good experience. That, after all, is what a lot of students base their purchase decisions on. But the point of college isn't to be a 4-year party & vacation, it's to get an education that will help you the rest of your life. Increasingly a college education doesn't help you lead a better life.

[1] https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/college-costs-over-tim...

boogieknite•23m ago
good plan training your kids to be adaptable

youre also right that todays world doesnt work

i think weve already moved too slowly in the US to prepare the societal changes were facing and culture is not adapting, but clinging harder to old expectations. i hope US culture shifts, even if its long overdue, but i dont think it will before many more dramatic economic events

meindnoch•35m ago
We need a war.
triceratops•26m ago
Are you enlisting?
Lammy•5m ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNG-gYjneeA
ge96•33m ago
The fertility rates thing, is it true everywhere seems poorer countries/people are used to having 4+ children.
carabiner•27m ago
It's true everywhere except for Africa. Poorer countries in Latin America are having wayyy fewer babies.
Lammy•9m ago
> and earth has reached its carrying capacity

[citation needed]

nozzlegear•7m ago
Tax land value and legalize housing!
busterarm•46m ago
If my employer were using ADP in 2025, I'd have a grim outlook on my job's future.
hhh•43m ago
starts sweating
manchmalscott•41m ago
Every job I’ve ever had has used ADP for payroll.
phatfish•26m ago
The radical left are everywhere!
triceratops•28m ago
1 in every 5 employees works at such a company.
etchalon•19m ago
ADP is essentially the only reliable payroll processor I've ever used (and we've tried a half-dozen now).

Every. single. "startup" we tried screwed up at least one payroll. Gusto ruined three.

ADP don't miss.

aynyc•44m ago
Don't worry, it'll revised to +50,000 soon! /s
the_real_cher•21m ago
No it will be revised to +one million. I create the most jobs, tremendous jobs
dyauspitr•22m ago
It’s a wasteland out there.
lbrito•15m ago
I am signing a beautiful Executive Order firing Maria Black, the radical left-wing CEO of ADP. As the President I can do that, you know. She was appointed by Joe Biden. She has said some very nasty things lately - I've been told by very nice people that she is very, very bad. The order is effective immediately. Failure to comply will trigger retaliatory tariffs on ADP. Some very smart people - I'm very smart myself, but there are some other smart people around me - have even suggested labeling ADP a terrorist organisation, and I'm thinking about that. I think its a beautiful idea.
noitpmeder•14m ago
I can believe it. Speaking as a SWE working in a finance-related space in NYC the quantity of recruiter spam on linkedin has decreased _notably_ over the last 2 months.
tamimio•13m ago
I don't know what's the end game here, you read news like this, another that thousands of government workers aren't paid, at this rate everyone will be homeless in a few months. In another news, you read someone like Musk hit a net worth of half a trillion dollars, if the economy is bad and people are losing jobs, why are others getting richer?
auggierose•9m ago
Because it is becoming more like a zero sum game?
danesparza•9m ago
If this is a genuine question, my only answer would be "It's because this is poorly run capitalism" (aka "crony capitalism")
dmbche•8m ago
You mean you don't see how both things can be true ( or have a kernel of truth at least, don't know about mass homelessness) and related?
etchalon•8m ago
The phrase "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer" was coined for a reason.
PartiallyTyped•7m ago
Because increasingly the top percentages are doing most spending and compensate for those who lose their jobs.
hermannj314•5m ago
Based on policy over the last decade, it seems America would rather have every rich person own an electric vehicle than every poor person eat dinner.

We really should do more tax credit for solar panels and EV credits, I know a doctor that has really struggled to buy his 3rd AirBnB rental.

sauercrowd•12m ago
>The U.S. shed 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, payroll-processing giant ADP said on Wednesday.

> That is down from a revised loss of 3,000 in August. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected an increase of 45,000.

Yikes

sssilver•9m ago
How does this happen?
jeffbee•7m ago
Every single day at 2:30 in the morning the inebriated President radically reconfigures federal trade policy.
PartiallyTyped•5m ago
It’s be okay ish if the president was just inebriated, but we are looking at dementia, an aged mind that seems to have trouble telling real from fake (as evident by the flurry of AI generated videos posted on his page).

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