Almost but not quite.
And/or the Israel-backed ISIS groups[1][2].
[1]: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sytu2q1mel
[2]: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-netanyahu-armi...
No Proof Hamas Routinely Stole U.N. Aid, Israeli Military Officials Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/26/world/middleeast/hamas-un...
We don't know many of the interceptions Hamas was behind, but that isn't really important.
Sure it is when Israel is funding other groups that are known for stealing aid. It changes the entire narrative.
Israel backs an anti-Hamas armed group known for looting aid in Gaza. Here’s what we know
https://apnews.com/article/gaza-armed-groups-hamas-israel-lo...
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/02/middleeast/israel-halts-gaza-...
Secondly, nobody can tell who intercepted what, it could very well be that the IDF is intercepting them covertly.
> it could very well be that the IDF is intercepting them covertly
This seems like a pretty farfetched conspiracy theory. There are smart phones and other cameras all over Gaza, and zero evidence of this.
No it's not. Driving trucks full of food through hungry crowds will absolutely result in "shrinkage." That doesn't mean they're all Hamas.
I didn't say they're all Hamas; again the relevant thing is that they're being intercepted and not making it to ordinary civilians.
> the relevant thing is that they're being intercepted and not making it to ordinary civilians
Hell of a straw man. People care that the aid is getting to militants. Israel said it was getting to Hamas. That's the justification for limiting aid. If it's not getting to people who are shooting at Israeli troops, then it's not a security risk to provide more aid.
- Groups of men with rifles tend to be belligerents in the conflict, even if we can't say definitively if they're with Hamas, PIJ or some smaller gang. Israel doesn't want an aid program where the bulk of the aid goes to their literal war enemies.
- Even if some of them are "civilian armed gangs" and not actual belligerents, the aid they steal still isn't getting to civilians (except when it's sold at extortionate prices). Hence the shift to GHF which, while it has its own problems, does actually deliver most aid to ordinary civilians for free.
Granted.
> Even if some of them are "civilian armed gangs" and not actual belligerents, the aid they steal still isn't getting to civilians
Sure. Now where is the evidence that most of the aid is being pilfered by armed anyones?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_the_Gaza_Strip#Feb...
It's not like the Gazans have any money to speak of.
> (or is irrelevant)?
If the way to prevent starvation is to flood the zone with food shipments, it's a moral imperative to do that. That it will also help keep the enemy fed is entirely beside the point, since causing starvation is not a legal or ethical form of warfare.
This is more of an argument in favor of the other side. It immediately becomes clear why they don't have the money.
https://web.archive.org/web/20100612001046/http://www.mcclat...
https://ghf.org/press-briefing-ghf-addresses-personnel-matte...
The only material evidence GHF has shown are small chunks of SMS conversations that are perfectly compatible with the "Aguilar was trying to convince GHF leadership to change policies" hypothesis, and WhatsApp broadcast of Aguilar telling his staff they were doing a great job.
Meanwhile, Aguilar has multiple photos and videos showing the conditions aid was distributed in which you can see right now on Youtube, testimony of seeing the GHF security contractors firing into crowds (to which the GHF replied by saying its contractors only fired above crowds, still a Geneva Convention violation), statistics that showed that people got shot during every single GHF distribution, matching testimony from Palestinian doctors and journalists and IDF whistleblowers, etc.
The evidence is overwhelming unless your curiosity cuts off as soon as you read the GHF damage control statements.
given that there is "statistics" (comfortable provided by hamas) of people getting shot during every single distribution, do you find it strange that there is not even 1 video of people actually getting shot en masse ? surely someone would have thought that it will be amazing video evidence that will be easy to make, as it happens daily, and a way to make israel look real bad, yet - nothing. the only video that comes close to it is when bullets very precisely hitting absolutely nothing few meters away from people.
with regards to " IDF whistleblowers", in case you missed the memo, the famous haaretz article with whistleblowers was mistranslated from hebrew. in hebew was used expression with meaning of "shooting at air/ground to prevent advancement". it was translated to english as "shooting at people". haaretz got it's 13 pieces for this
Yeah, guess what, that's still a breach of Geneva Conventions.
(Also basic common sense. The golden rule of gun safety is "Never point the gun at anything unless you intend to kill it", there isn't a "but shooting just over their heads is perfectly okay".)
First, Israel has consistently denied journalists access to those distribution sites, so the only video evidence we should expect to find are from civilians. Civilians who are in the middle of a stampede and getting shot at do not, as a general rule, stop to bring their smartphone out and film whoever is shooting at them (usually footage of shootings is filmed by people in buildings, obviously doesn't apply here).
The best video I could find is this one, showing people cowering and shots landing between them: https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2025/7/15/video-sho...
That's a really tight crowd, and bullets are clearly landing very close to them. Even if we assume nobody was hit by a stray bullet (which I find very improbable), that's still an egregious breach of the Geneva Conventions. Also, it seems similar to a pattern Aguilar described: IDF soldiers shooting at sand mounds, not realizing/caring that their bullets had enough penetration to go out the other side and kill people.
As for non video evidence, we have: photos of wounded people being taken away from GHF sites, testimonies of Gazan doctors who treated people of all ages wounded/killed by 7.62mm M80 bullets, testimonies of international doctors saying the same thing, a video published by Aguilar where we hear a SRS contractor bragging about hitting someone during a distribution, whistleblower testimonies, Gaza Health Ministries statistics (which the IDF treats as reliable, according to IDF leaks), UN statistics, and a mountain of testimonies from Gazan residents.
But if the only "actual" evidence you accept is video evidence in an area where the IDF is forbidding journalists, then the best I can give you is the link above.
Also, I'm stopping this discussion here, because the bullshit asymmetry principle is at play here: it took you 10 seconds to write your "there's no evidence because I say so" comment, and it took me one hour to sift through the media reports to write this rebuttal.
(Though for what it's worth, I do wish the evidence was better collected, and not scattered across MSM reports. In particular, I wish Aguilar had published a full dump of all the photos and videos he took.)
EDIT: This site aggregates social media reports related to the Gaza war. Some of them include footage of dead people near GHF sites, though none I could find that included the moment the person got shot.
Seems to me, if the claim is true, Israel is trying to give Hamas more power, not less.
If they flooded Gaza with food then Hamas would benefit less from the supposed stealing/reselling.
> But recent intelligence has shown the extent to which Hamas has been able to build many of its rockets and anti-tank weaponry out of the thousands of munitions that failed to detonate when Israel lobbed them into Gaza, according to weapons experts and Israeli and Western intelligence officials. Hamas is also arming its fighters with weapons stolen from Israeli military bases.
> “Unexploded ordnance is a main source of explosives for Hamas,” said Michael Cardash, the former deputy head of the Israeli National Police Bomb Disposal Division and an Israeli police consultant. “They are cutting open bombs from Israel, artillery bombs from Israel, and a lot of them are being used, of course, and repurposed for their explosives and rockets.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/world/middleeast/israel-h...
And quite a bit of what's being talked about wrt to re-manufacturing Israeli unexploded ordance was stockpiled prior to Oct 7th. Israel did not start bombing Gaza only after Oct 7th (and in fact had been bombing Gaza as late as Sept 23, 2023).
Gaza is on the ocean: they could have been brought in via boat.
Otherwise the answer is largely tunnels.
Before May 2024, Egypt was the primary route for aid to get it, but getting from Southern Gaza to northern Gaza was incredibly dangerous.
Not to mention that the blockade was enforced by Egypt as well.
The blockade was also imposed by Egypt[0] and Hamas certainly provided no shortage of security related justifications for the blockade. Unfortunately those security concerns turned out to be accurate[1].
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_the_Gaza_Strip
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_support_for_Hamas
> In February 2020, former Mossad Director Yossi Cohen and Israeli general Herzi Halevi, under Netanyahu's orders, went to Qatar to plead Qatari officials to continue the payments for Hamas.[8] Later, in September 2023, David Barnea, the Director of Mossad since 2021, went to Qatar to meet Qatari officials to discuss about the payments for Hamas.[10][44]
(...)
> Israeli intelligence officials believe that the money had a role in the success of 2023 Hamas-led attack.[10]
Yeah, Benjamin Netanyahu certainly got complacent thinking he could keep a genocidal terrorist group like Hamas under control with that strategy. Qatar and their support for terrorists has long been a problem as well.
A few months prior to October 7th, Natenyahu had allowed the highest number of work visas for Gazans to work in Israel proper. They genuinely thought economic prosperity would bring an slowdown and eventual end to terrorism. Now try and find Israelis who support the idea of 10s of 1000s Palestinians cruising the borders for work each day - thanks to Oct 7th.
Doesn't quite fit the narrative you want to portray, does it?
What videos?
Do you also believe 9/11 was an inside job? Both claims are IMO equally unrealistic.
food tracks fluctuate between 2000 and 3000 a month prior to oct 7th. a few more dozens of of tracks with "non-edible consumables" and "medical supplies". rest of tracks are construction materials
ps. good chunk of farms were actually not for gaza consumption but for export (to israel and other places). stuff like strawberries, some leafy greens, etc. but in general farming in region is hard. there is no water. droughts been severe. Israel survives by desalinating majority (80%) of potable water (and supplying it to jordan, west bank, gaza) and recycling 90% of waste water for use in agriculture.
Before the war Gaza had the ability to produce much of its own food. To subsist totally on imports, about 500 trucks a day is what's needed.
Both Israeli Arabs & Palestinian Arabs. This is not some, 'oh no! it just happened.' Everyone who has actually spent time studying this conflict, the state of Israel has a policy of systematic rape, torture, mass incarceration, murder, and dehumanization of Palestinians at an industrial scale that's been in place for decades now.
They're just going mask-off in a way Western audiences can't pretend not to know about it any longer.
Israelis and their Western supporters try to make out their actions as that of fringe far-right loonies like Smotrich, etc. Nope. Systematic rape, torture, murder, of non-Jews has been their policy for decades now. You're just finally learning about it after so long. The ultra-orthodox don't make up a plurality of the population and used to not serve in the military until recently. So, if their abominable ideology is state policy, it's because Israelis are okay with it.
[0]: https://www.timesofisrael.com/plurality-of-jewish-israelis-w...
>Israel has denied the allegations. [from linked CNN article]
People are waking up.
I'd like some evidence for each of these three. I'm aware of the policy of interrogation which might count as "a policy of systematic torture". Can you do systematic rape and murder?
>“There is no famine in Gaza. Period,” the [Israeli] official said, adding that “Israel and the IDF are trying to strengthen the humanitarian situation in Gaza with partners.”
If you want to see what Netanyaho looks like when he's covering things up [lying] just watch the 2024 documentary The Bibi Files — about his corruption charges (which features over an hour of Netanyaho lying to investigators about his accepting roses and leaves [wine and cigars]) — complete with his shit-eating-grins galore...
https://www.propublica.org/article/biden-blinken-state-depar...
Israelis (including those who use this platform to repeat the same warmed-over genocide denials for the umpteenth time) know it's happening too. That's why the argument is usually 50% "it's not happening" and 50% "but they deserve it".
Please understand that this is a war crime. You can not use starvation of civilians as a weapon or as leverage against combatants.
America withholding its own aid is not a war crime.
She had seen war and genocide first-hand in Bosnia and that provided the impetus for her to study how America had responded to various genocides.
I will repeat the last paragraph of her Preface for some context.
>Before I began exploring America's relationship with genocide, I used to refer to U.S. policy towards Bosnia as a "failure." I have changed my mind. It is daunting to acknowledge, but this country's consistent policy of nonintervention in the face of genocide offers sad testimony not to a broken American political system but to one that is ruthlessly effective. The system, as it stands now, is working. No U.S. president has ever made genocide prevention a priority, and no U.S. president has ever suffered politically for his indifference to its occurrence. It is thus no coincidence that genocide rages on.
[0] https://samanthapower.com/books/a-problem-from-hell-america-...
[1] https://www.amazon.com/Problem-Hell-America-Age-Genocide/dp/...
(I am commenting on the general US policy and not making a statement about the current situation in Gaza.)
We sold weapons to Burma, China, Russia, ISIS, Sudan and Somaliland [1]?
We're absolutely complicit in Gaza, the DRC f/k/a Zaire and Bosnia. And we helped defend the Yazidi and Ukrainians. Honestly, looking at the list, that's a better record than Russia or China have had since WWII.
The more time I spend in tech the more I realize there's a deep moral rot here covered up by noveau-rich wealth
I feel like the community is censored or rather finds inconvenient to talk about it because of the big role that Israel plays in the tech scene. SV has an ethos of avoiding name calling and finger pointing at members of the community, since they know it's a long repeated game they are playing.
But I'm glad to see some prominent voices step up. Particularly, PG and Amjad Massad (Replit) have been very vocal. I hope their voice makes people feel like it's OK to call out human right violations when they see them.
Then there's the other extreme of the tech scene that simply decided to play politics for its own gain. The All In Pod crew as the poster children of this. Their cynicism is s transparent and disgusting in how they kiss the ring to get favor of the king in turn. I think that's a bit of what triangle man is trying to get, and it's certainly what sama was trying to do when this admin started.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2025/04/25/g-s1-...
But I have never seen rampant obesity in Hamas prisoners that the IDF have captured alive? Hamas can't be extorting the Gazan people for those calories, the Gazan people have no money at this point by and large due to the huge swath of destruction of property and infrastructure via bombing-- only Hamas has those underground tunnels or somesuch.
So like... what is going on here
So what is going on is that the IDF are lying to justify their genocide. There is a massive propaganda machine at work to muddy the waters.
given the current US administration and their hard-on for Israel, I can't imagine this is a faked report. if it were faked, it'd be to agree with Israel
Not saying that the claim is true, just that your logic is faulty.
https://apnews.com/article/mideast-wars-photo-gallery-hostag...
Plenty of Hamas fighters looking in pretty great shape.
This claim is made by supporters of the war _outside of Israel_ for external consumption. If you look at what the Israeli cabinet, generals and politicians are saying for internal consumption... it's pretty deliberate.
are you saying un supports the war then?
But hey, between hungry peasants and buff hamas soldiers we do know who has the guns.
This is a truck. You are a hungry person. How do you even stop a truck? And why, if you could just... follow it to a location where it was supposed to despense stuff to you?
There is an editorial voice reserved purely for blunting reporting on American and Israeli state crimes that drives me nuts.
They have been willing to constantly fight, and constantly keep getting killed by an enemy with overwhelming advantages, for their cause for two years now. Why would you assume that being able to escape with their lives is suddenly more important to them?
From Hamas?
And then what? Look at the West Bank to see what happens when you don't resist the occupation and fully cooperate with the colonial state. You get slowly cleansed anyway.
> Also the idea of amnesty to all Hamas members looks pretty generous to me
Israel specializes in assassinations and has a history of relentlessly pursuing those it deems its enemies. If you were a Hamas fighter, your choice would be to either die fighting for a purpose, or be killed in exile without a purpose anymore.
Valid point for the safety of Hamas members though, would be hard to come up with an arrangement that convinces them that they are going to be safe
Hamas has. If you put this deal to a plebescite in Gaza, do you really think they'd vote for more war?
Yes?
Just so I understand the hypothetical, the Jewish resistance in Nazi Germany (not really a singular thing, but I'll read this as the French Resistance and ghetto leaders) are offered amnesty, i.e. an end to the Holocaust, in exchange for literally anything? Why wouldn't they take it? It's literally a choice between life and death.
And again, it gives time for regrouping, clear thinking, rallying support. Turning it down seems to scream that the offer, in this hypothetical an end to the Holocaust, in our timeline a ceasefire, isn't actually that important. At that point, both sides are choosing to fight. European Jews didn't choose the Holocaust. I don't think Palestinians are choosing this war, but if they turned down a peace deal, they by definition are.
Thats not true at all. Most people in palestine do not want to throw their lives away for nothing. Most of them want peace. Its only Hamas that would apparently prefer to get killed and have gaza be flattened instead of accepting peace.
They're psychotic idiots.
> lets them escape with their lives
On the other hand: how idiotic would they have to be to believe the Israelis will let them escape with their lives, given all the evidence to the contrary?
Edit: the post I was replying to was claiming Hamas/the Palestinians perpetrated a genocide in Israel. It has since been edited to be a completely different thing.
Genocide is legally a set of acts committed with the intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group.
So yes, what Hamas did on Oct 7 was not genocide, and similarly what Israel does on any given day in Gaza is not genocide. Rather they are both part of ongoing campaigns that arguably are genocide.
However, there's no such thing as "unsuccessful genocide". Wanting to commit genocide and even terrorist bombings which target the population you'd like to exterminate are not genocide. To be committing the crime of genocide, you have to actually be in a position where you are actively displacing or exterminating a population.
Israel is committing genocide in Gaza since October 7th, because they are actively working towards a goal of eliminating the Palestinian population from the Gaza territory, or at least from the majority of it. They have already achieved a part of the genocide. They're not going all scorched earth and killing by the millions for the same reason they're not launching one of their illegal nukes in Gaza: they fear international reaction if the move is too sudden and overwhelming.
Hamas, by contrast, is not committing genocide in Israel, because it's not actively killing or starving or displacing any part of the population of Israel. I'm sure Hamas would love to do that, but it's a simple obvious fact that they're not succeeding. This is like claiming that Al Qaeda has an ongoing campaign of genocide of the West, because of 9/11 and some other attacks on, say, British troops.
I think the evidence is quite overwhelming that Hamas had clear genocidal intent, even if they did not have the means to accomplish that intent.
One of these is better than the other.
Weirdly, many people disagree over which one that is.
Did you read the article this discussion is about?
How could one cause a famine accidentally, without intent to murder civilians?
There isn't credible evidence of a famine in Gaza. I'm not saying things are great(it is a war zone after all), but they certainly haven't gotten that bad. Look at pictures of Palestinians on the street in Gaza and compare them to pictures of people in countries where there is actual famine, they look nothing alike.
Assume it is a hostage situation, 2,000,000 Hostages. Israel has killed 60,000+ hostages trying to rescue hostages. Starvation also counts as killings to me, but I supposed "Starved" is less direct than "Shot"
They do some finances and politics but aren't involved in running Gaza or the military/militants.
Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir do not want this peace deal either. There is 0 chance it would be honored.
Also, what value has Netanyahu’s word? I mean, after blowing up a truce unilaterally, after killing negotiators, after all the corruption reckoning that is coming to him if/when out of office...
First, there is no such thing as a Palestinian - that’s a made up identity to falsely claim the region as their own. Second, there have been five two-state solution offers in the past, that Israel was ready to accept. Leaders on the other side refused. Third, Hamas is not accepting the current deal that is on the table, and is incredibly fair (given the lopsided hostage/prisoner release that favors Hamas). Fourth, Israel had already withdrawn from Gaza - that was the status quo when Hamas got elected and began a decades long campaign of terrorism - remember the literal thousands of rocket attacks on Israel? Fifth, if Israel’s goal is the “annihilation of Palestinians”, why are the 20% of Israel’s population that would identify as such doing so well? Clearly this isn’t their goal, but just misinformation.
A quote from the Minutes of the Ninth Session of the League of Nations, 1922:
Colonel Symes explained that the country was described as "Palestine" by Europeans and as "Falestin" by the Arabs. The Hebrew name for the country was the designation "Land of Israel", and the Government, to meet Jewish wishes, had agreed that the word "Palestine" in Hebrew characters should be followed in all official documents by the initials which stood for that designation.
https://web.archive.org/web/20110628180414/http://domino.un....Hamas just underestimated how much it would actually cost. Or maybe they didn’t, who knows.
> While Netanyahu agreed to the plan on Monday, he already appears to be pushing back on several of its terms.
> In a video posted on X, he insisted that the IDF would would be able to remain in parts of the territory and that Israel would 'forcibly resist' the establishment of a Palestinian state.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15156091/Hamas-mili...
Not to mention the fact that Israel just killed a top Hamas negotiator in Doha, Qatar only a few weeks ago. [1] How can you negotiate with someone who just killed your negotiator?
[0] https://apnews.com/live/latest-updates-israel-launches-new-w...
[1] https://apnews.com/article/qatar-explosion-doha-e319dd51b170...
Israel has been rather consistent that a permanent ceasefire will only happen when Hamas effectively surrenders and gives up power. Hamas had also refused to continue releasing hostages which effectively ended the ceasefire(as the terms of the second phase were never finalized).
> Not to mention the fact that Israel just killed a top Hamas negotiator in Doha, Qatar only a few weeks ago. [1] How can you negotiate with someone who just killed your negotiator?
I suppose when attempting to negotiate the surrender of Hamas if the negotiators refuse to surrender after having clearly lost a war they started then eliminating the current negotiators may result in their replacements being more likely to capitulate. That seemed to work out with Hezbollah at least.
That's insane and not how you negotiate.
So how exactly do you negotiate with genocidal terrorists that refuse to surrender despite having clearly lost a war? There certainly isn't an easy solution here.
There is no credible evidence that there is famine or genocide occurring in Gaza. Obviously the situation in Gaza is bad but that's to be expected for a war.
It's not credible however[0]. There have been many claims without appropriate evidence for a while[1] and those involved tend to be antisemitic individuals interested only in pushing a specific narrative regardless of the facts on the ground.
[0] https://unwatch.org/hillel-neuer-on-sky-news-fabricated-u-n-...
[1] https://unwatch.org/legal-analysis-of-un-food-rapporteur-mic...
From wiki "Neuer was selected as one of the "top 100 most influential Jewish people in the world" by Israeli newspaper Maariv,[9] and by the Algemeiner Journal in 2017. He is an outspoken defender of Israel[10][11] and critic of the UN's human rights councils' actions.[12]"
So he's not pushing a pro-Israel view? How can you dismiss one source with claims of bias by providing a source that is also bias but of the opposing view?
I want to point out that I don't think sources should be ignored merely due to bias. You do though so I await your defense
I don't think I ever claimed his view was neutral. Groups on both sides putting out analysis papers will likely have some degree of bias.
> How can you dismiss one source with claims of bias by providing a source that is also bias but of the opposing view?
I mostly consider them unreliable because they have a history of putting out reports that push a narrative that simply isn't in line with reality and tend to have major methodological issues. They also have a history of putting out wildly inaccurate future projections.
> I want to point out that I don't think sources should be ignored merely due to bias. You do though so I await your defense
There's two aspects, one is the history of methodologically problematic analysis put out by these organization like those involved in the IPC report along with other UN organizations.
The other is that individuals involved in the reports tend to hold extremist viewpoints that point to a clear motivation for pushing narratives regardless of the reality on the ground.
UN officials in particular have a rather common habit of straight up lying about facts(and even what their own UN reports say in regards to starvation risk) and when caught they simply try and justify their lies[0] because those lies supposedly help their cause.
The most detailed responses/rebuttals to these IPC reports would generally be reports that COGAT is involved in producing[1][2]. While COGAT is arguably biased they do put out sufficient data/references for one to validate their analysis, groups like UN Watch do likely source from these reports. Keep in mind there's not many organizations that have access to data on the ground, COGAT likely has the most complete view while humanitarian organizations likely only have data specific to their own operations. By cherry picking data(often non-public data), ignoring counterfactual data and largely excluding COGAT data the IPC report authors can paint a false narrative more easily.
[0] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-one-un-leaders-mistak...
[1] https://govextra.gov.il/media/orumgksl/politics-disguised-as...
[2] https://govextra.gov.il/media/sftjdsg2/cogat-humanitarian-ef...
What's your evidence of this?
The UNWatch article isn't that - you can easy verify their points yourself. I.e. by IPC's own definition and Hamas' own casualty data, we're about three orders of magnitude short of meeting one of the requirements of a famine. IPC is just ignoring their own definition and declaring a famine anyway.
For other evidence of lies from UN officials, this one from the head of OCHA was rather blatant: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/debunked-un-off...
Why would one UN official's reputation be affected by another? Especially if it's not common, which you haven't yet shown.
There's plenty of examples[0] of this issue when it comes to UN officials.
[0] https://unwatch.org/francesca-albaneses-made-up-math-and-fal...
The point is that surrender is something that has to be negociated.
> how exactly
By organizing boring meetings with negociators and never killing them.
And from a guerrila warfare point of view, I disagree that they "clearly lost the war".
It actually doesn't have to be negotiated, one side can simply make a demand for surrender with their terms and then apply military pressure until capitulation. This is largely what happened with Germany/Japan in WW2.
> By organizing boring meetings with negociators and never killing them.
If it's clear the current negotiators/leaders will never surrender then there is arguably no benefit in keeping those particular negotiators/leaders alive. Once an organizations leadership tree is wiped out a few levels deep there's a decent chance you will get negotiators/leaders that will eventually capitulate to the demands(i.e. like what happened with Hezbollah).
You either negotiate or you attack the people you want to negotiate with. Not both
One reason would be to try and get back as many hostages as possible, regardless of whether or not the terrorists surrender.
> You either negotiate or you attack the people you want to negotiate with. Not both
One can still attack an enemy while negotiating with them, I see no reason one would have to pick one option over the other.
It's not at all uncommon to negotiate with ones enemies while you attack them(including trying to kill them). If Israel explicitly gave the enemy representatives they were negotiating with diplomatic immunity then one might have a better argument against attacking those with immunity, but that was AFAIU not the case here.
The only other option seems to be that Israel is about to destroy the rest of Gaza City, and take out the last major location that Hamas controls. So their options are to either accept the peace plan, or die.
I don't think Israel cares that much which choice Hamas choses. But yeah accepting this peace deal sounds like it it quite obviously the mostly likely option to help prevent all the buildings that are about to be destroyed and people who will be killed.
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It's not a war anymore, wars are between armies, not civilians.
The current "peace deal" is terrible for the Palestinians. No other country would sign it either.
This is pretty much one should expect when one starts and loses a war, same as with the surrender of Nazi Germany and the Japanese at the end of WW2.
> The current "peace deal" is terrible for the Palestinians. No other country would sign it either.
It's a surrender agreement effectively, it's certainly not a peace deal amongst equal parties.
You're being downvoted, but this is pretty much it. Gaza gets peace out of the deal. That's about all they have left to negotiate for.
Naturally the opposing Arab leaders were against a plan that saw a majority population receive less land, a plan that was being put forward by people openly stating it was a first step to total control of everything.
~ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Partition_Plan_...
It's a shame a better deal could not have been struck for the benefit of all the people with a millennium plus history in the Levant, of all faiths.
Keep in mind that there is a state with a Palestinian majority population that came out of the division of the territory under the British Mandate system, that country of course is Jordan.
> It's a shame a better deal could not have been struck for the benefit of all the people with a millennium plus history in the Levant, of all faiths.
I think it's pretty clear that the Arab leaders at the time would never have accepted an independent Jewish state regardless of how fair the land division was.
There were plenty of Jews living on the land by the time of Israeli independence, land which had largely been acquired by purchases from Arab landowners.
> Would you accept a country being founded in yours for, say, the Roma? I highly doubt it.
Palestine was never a country prior to Israeli independence so that's probably not a realistic comparison either.
These arguments are not particularly helpful because you can easily make the case for either side being the indigenous people depending on how far you want to go back in history.
> They did not choose to be colonized by Jews fleeing persecution in Eastern Europe.
At this point the majority of Israelis were born in Israel and hold no other citizenship, so if you're suggesting the Jews all go back to Europe that isn't a realistic expectation, also many Jews were forced out of other middle east countries shortly after the founding of Israel. You can make these same arguments about many countries like the United States or Canada as well as being colonies that pushed out their indigenous people, but these arguments are not going to be particularly productive as nobody is expecting these countries to return all land to their indigenous populations either. By the way these Jews fleeing Eastern Europe prior to Israeli independence were largely purchasing the land from Arab landowners which is arguably better than them haven taken the land by force.
Germany was split in two for many years. Ultimately they were able to keep their countries because the occupation forces were successfully able to largely de-radicalize those countries.
> What guarantees do the Palestinians have that they'll get to keep Gaza and not have it be overrun by Israeli settlers (who are already wreaking havoc in the West Bank)?
I suppose that would depend on the surrender agreement and whatever agreements are subsequently put in place, but the settler issue differs significantly between Gaza and the West Bank for various reasons. For example the issue of religious sites is a much bigger issue in the West Bank, there has been little desire amongst Israelis to settle Gaza compared to the West Bank. The security issues in the West Bank tend to also be more problematic due to proximity to major Israeli cities.
Nothing justifies a genocide.
There's political opposition to this within Israel. Here's what happened to an elected member of the Knesset who spoke out against the cruelty in Gaza.[1] He was forcibly removed from the podium of the Knesset.
In that context, "of all people" makes sense to me. I too have been surprised by the move, of some on the right, against Israel, considering their almost unanimous support previously.
The right is not a monolith. Various elements on the right have always been anti-Israel, from the non-interventionists to the straight-up racists. Kirk was one of the former.
As the genocide has become more and more indefensible, many right wing water carriers (also including Tucker Carlson) have been peeling off and voicing occasional (but essentially harmless) criticisms of the relationship. It's more cynicism than principle.
And the more I've read into Kirk, the more disgusted I've been.
Obviously, that doesn't justify what happened to him, but he definitely isn't some kind of saviour and hero he's been made out to be after his death.
Watching him effectively being made into a saint has been mildly nauseating.
https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjso....
Item 1) Abortion should be illegal.
Item 2) The government should take steps to make incomes more equal.
Item 3) All unauthorized immigrants should be sent back to their home country.
Item 4) The federal budget for welfare programs should be increased.
Item 5) Lesbian, gay and trans couples should be allowed to legally marry.
Item 6) The government should regulate business to protect the environment.
Item 7) The federal government should make it more difficult to buy a gun.
Item 8) The federal government should make a concerted effort to improve social and economic conditions for African Americans.
Edit: to be clear I read the study and they used Prolific (https://www.prolific.com/) to get the participants but that means nothing to me.
https://youtube.com/shorts/nNfDr18C6H4?si=CKalCaG0DMUP3rZZ
This and my original comment apparently struck a nerve for some people, but I’m just sharing what I observe from the links I’ve included. I’d love to see some actual response to the content of these videos given Kirk’s apparent change of heart on Israel (especially if I’m off-base) as opposed to just downvotes with substance-free responses
They play a major role in politics. Most prominently and recently, the 8-decade long exemption from the draft for Haredi Jewish people was ended causing a major crisis in Israel's government. All Haredi representatives of the Knesset withdrew leaving Netanyahu's party's majority with a razor thin margin of 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset
Trust me, no orthodox Jews are opposing the Gaza conflict on humanitarian grounds. On the contrary, there is a STRONG orthodox faction in Netanyahu's government (of which Smotrich is a member).
Neither of these former politicians are current leaders, of course.
Source?
While Arab MKs do enjoy freedom of speech, they are ostracized and delegitimized by the majority of Jewish MKs.
Not exactly.
A conservative Arab party was part of the ruling government coalition in 2021. They joined with a wide spectrum of political parties seeking to defeat the Likud Prime Minister Netanyahu.
From what I read, none of the Jewish parties are interested in renewing the experience.
I mean, sure? Like, I'm sure Hamas stole like some food. At least once. Non-zero culpability.
Sort of irrelevant to the fact that most of the culpability lies with the guys withholding food from starving people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/26/world/middleeast/hamas-un...
What are the factors that transform a society that is generally decent, even if not free from flaws, into a society devoid of any moral restraints, into a multitude that wallows in the dubious pleasure of its cohesion and unity, indifferent to suffering, completely closed to others?
The victims of the Nazis' knowledge were indeed the Jews. Nazi anti-Semitism was indeed particularly destructive and murderous.
But the Nazis disregarded human life wherever it was. The extermination of hundreds of thousands of Russian prisoners of war is just another example, but their attitude towards their own army, on the Stalingrad front for example, was also devoid of any human consideration.
Hitler did indeed lead these moves, but only here and there did anyone voice a complaint or reservation. With the outbreak of the war, the spirit of those who could truly resist was completely broken.
Is it really that easy to break the spirit? How does that happen? Few history books deal with this. Huffner tries to explain, and even if he is not always convincing and does not see everything, this experience of his, so close to the moment of truth in Europe on the eve of the outbreak of World War II, is unique and one of a kind. I believe that even in our time and even in our places, it is worthy of in-depth study.
- Shulamit Volkov (afterword to "The Story of a German" by Sebastian Huffner).Political opposition to the starvation of Gaza is still marginal, especially in Jewish society. Protests in Arab cities against the starvation and the genocide are being curbed and prevented by the police. the Jewish majority is still largely silent on these issues, if not outright supportive of the government policy.
But it is tantamount to the destruction of Israel.
Not many with that sort of history. It's barely working in the EU, and that's because America took away the toys for a while.
Show me a single case where previously-warring nations peacefully unified (i.e. not through conquest or subjugation)? Poland-Lithuania and England-Scotland are the only two I can think of.
Because the counterexample--multiethnic nations that split along national-identity lines--is far more frequent since the age of conquest. Former Yugoslavia. Pre-Partition India. Sudan. Ethiopia. Algeria.
Multiethnicisim is hard. Where it works, it happened through immigration. Combining previously-warring nations under one roof is basically just assisted civil war.
Abolishing Jim Crow in the south hardly destroyed the south, despite the gloom and doom of the racists of the time.
It would be a destruction of the nation-state of Israel as a state for the Israeli, predeominantly Jewish, nation.
> Abolishing Jim Crow in the south hardly destroyed the south
It certainly felt that way to them! Strongly enough that they fought a war over it. (EDIT: Nobody went to war over Jim Crow. They did over slavery. Jim Crow was basically an attempt to regain part of what was lost in the war. Put another way, even a war--alone--is not enough.)
That's the point. The single-state solution, practically, would require a war. I know we pulled out of Afghanistan. But I thought we'd have a bigger gap before another group of Westerners decided they like drawing borders in the Middle East, and that anyone who disagrees with them--including the people on the ground--should be violently forced to comply.
Just like the people in my home states of Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee thought that ending Jim Crow would destroy them. They were wrong, just as the people of Israel would be wrong.
> It certainly felt that way to them! Strongly enough that they fought a war over it.
No war was fought over the end of Jim Crow.
> That's the point. The single-state solution, practically, would require a war. I know we pulled out of Afghanistan.
At the moment, probably. That can change.
> But I thought we'd have a bigger gap before another group of Westerners decided they like drawing borders in the Middle East, and that anyone who disagrees with them--including the people on the ground--should be violently forced to comply.
Those Knesset members are not asking western intervention to end their ethnostate.
They may be. Maybe India and Pakistan could peacefully reünify, too. I'm doubtful. But that matters less than the people there being very much more doubtful.
> No war was fought over the end of Jim Crow
Sorry, fair enough. Ending Jim Crow wasn't a credible threat to the South at that time. The war had already been fought.
> At the moment, probably. That can change
Sure. But sentiment has to shift before one can peacefully move borders.
> Those Knesset members are not asking western intervention to end their ethnostate
I've lost your argument. (Also, ethnostate and nation-state are practically synonymous.)
Not really seeing who in the region would want to support that narrative.
So what democracy are you talking about?
To be fair, we tried to depose them. That tends to make one paranoid.
That doesn't make Hamas's despotism and terrorism our fault. But it's also unfair to use that as an example for why democracy can't work in Gaza.
palestinian authority stopped having elections as well. because hamas will win. latest polling (in link that i sent you in other thread) shows hamas polling at 40+%
Not a majority? Also, can you provide the link? Super curious about polling methods in a war zone.
But PA promised to France/UK/Canada/Australia that Hamas wouldn't be allowed to participate in elections, so...
they have people that interview people in gaza (mentioned on front page)
But taking their numbers at face value, we have 58% of Gaza residents saying Hamas was incorrect to launch its 7 October offensive. (Surprisingly, 59% in the West Bank say it was correct. That's problematic.)
Problematically, too, is the 2/3rds of respondents in Gaza who oppose Hamas disarming. Based on this survey, which again, I have zero ability to judge in terms of accuracy, there would need to be a long civic transition to democratic self-rule while new political parties are given a safe space to form and grow.
how long civic transition given those:
https://www.impact-se.org/wp-content/uploads/UNRWA-Education...
https://www.impact-se.org/wp-content/uploads/Review-of-2023-...
https://www.impact-se.org/wp-content/uploads/Gazas-Education...
If you were to make them illegal, you're basically legally disenfranchising 25% of Israel's population.
The modern BQ is much more tame than the BQ of thirty years prior - they've mainly morphed into a party focused on franophone rights within Canada and the maintenance of QC labor rights. So while they specifically no longer represent that separatist movement as directly there are other groups focused on prairie separatism that are a better modern parallel.
We have really lost the plot when it comes to ethics. Not all of us, but many, and especially in our leaderships and governments.
Seriously, you can't apply western standards to middle eastern coumtry, even more so, single out one ME country to apply them to.
2) If forces were reversed, it would be one for sure.
--
Anyhow, war and terror is on the rise in Europe right now, cue immediate swing to far right in the polls, so good luck!
If you can get your hand om 20kg of oxidiser that is. It is all more than ridiculous.
Edit: and Nick Maynard is a national treasure.
Only solution is to cut off all wells and water supplies.
Without a justification the decision is arbitrary and silences any ability to push back against it within the normal bounds of dialog. A justification would potentially allow aid groups to remedy whatever the specific deficiency is if it is a reasonable deficiency to remedy.
If there was a justification it might be acceptable - depending on the justification - without a justification it is unacceptable when there is such a clear need. The aid is blocked and there is no recourse to unblock it outside the current attempts to just smuggle it in.
I think in this particular case it's quite safe to say that those blocking the shipments aren't acting in good faith, however.
The main ingredient in Hamas' rocket fuel is sugar. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_candy
That would be an acceptable justification for confiscating sugar. If Hamas were making rocket fuel somehow out of baby formula, then yes, that would be an acceptable justification.
That said baby formula cannot in fact be meaningfully used to make explosives, so this is not acceptable.
Damn, Israel is really arguing about how much child starvation they are allowed to inflict before it becomes egregious?
That might be another one of those "are we the baddies?" moments right there.
Israel was not arguing about the definition of 'acute malnourished'. The threshold for famine is 15%. The IPC said it had just hit 16% and was thus a famine. Israel was arguing that other data showed it was only 12.2-13.5% and therefore not a famine. When you get to the point of arguing "only 12% of the children are starving, not 16%" you probably shouldn't bother.
Devil's advocate: we grow enough food to feed every human. What we lack is the logistics. War disrupts logistics. Food insecurity rising is thus, unfortunately, an expected (and probably unmitigatable) consequence of war.
That's why we have to define a line, based on history and capability, that sets what's a tolerable amount of starvation. And what is not.
Food insecurity is. Famine is not. The latter is statistically defined, which is why we have levels and people arguing about which side of that level they stand.
Acute malnourishment going above 10% is not an inevitable outcome of war. This was deliberate action.
I don't know enough about this topic to debate levels. I'd just point out that you're still specifying a level, and that level can't be zero if it's going to be taken seriously.
This solves the problem you were devil's advocating. And we don't need to theorize about other numbers.
[1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/malnutrit...
and "in 2019, the global rate of malnutrition was estimated to be approximately 9 percent." [1].
It's not.
According to the IPC, "acute malnutrition is a form of malnutrition that occurs when an individual suffers from current, severe nutritional restrictions, a recent bout of illness, inappropriate childcare practices or, more often, a combination of these factors. It is characterised by extreme weight loss, resulting in low weight for height, and/or bilateral oedema, and, in its severe form, can lead to death." [1].
Your chart measures undernourishment, which the FAO defines relative to "how many calories [one] need[s] to maintain a healthy life" [2].
[1] https://www.nutritioncluster.net/sites/nutritioncluster.com/...
To address it properly we must start with whether anything above zero is "acceptable" (in the sense of a level that would accord with the realities of increased food insecurity in a war zone, not morally).
If it is, then a level needs to be set, and if the level is met then I would expect the parties in question to argue about it, if only because of the propaganda value, let alone the truth of the claim.
The claims about mistakes in the data, or presentation of the data, are here[1], I am unable to tell if they are right or not, but that is not the point of this conversation. The point is, whether their should be stages at all, and if so, should the results of reports be scrutinised?
I would say yes to both.
[1] https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/gaza-famine-claim-based-o...
They're disputing whether the actual rate is 12% or 16%. So if I can make my argument without any numbers inside that range, of course I will do so.
Why is that less persuasive?
You could say that I'm giving Israel the benefit of the doubt. Sure, let's say it's 12%. That's still bad.
> whether their should be stages at all
Sure, there are many levels of hunger issues.
> should the results of reports be scrutinised?
In general yes. But in this particular case we can be confident it's at least the number Israel is giving, plus or minus some fraction of a percent, so that's what I based my argument on.
So it's convenient for that specific reason. Why do you act like convenience is ipso facto bad?
How does it make my argument less persuasive?
I will point out that picking a number below both of them only works when I'm arguing that even my number is still too high. If I was arguing that something is sufficiently low, my "still sufficiently low" number would have to be above both of their numbers.
Let me make an analogy: Two people are arguing about whether a crashed car would take $3000 or $4000 to repair. I come in and point out that any number above $2500 would mean it's totaled, so the car is totaled and that's the important part. $2500 is not the exact threshold, but I'm confident that the exact threshold is less than or equal to $2500.
By introducing the convenient number of $2500, have I ruined the persuasiveness of my argument? If so, how? Please explain beyond just accusing it of being convenient.
A point so basic that only the person with the bias could fail to see it. Convenient arguments, in my experience, are a sign one needs to rethink, not double down. YMMV, obviously.
If that's what I was fighting, I would agree with you.
But it's not. By avoiding the word famine and loudly announcing that I am doing so, I am explicitly not picking that fight.
I'm accepting the expertise of both parties, and making an argument that doesn't disagree with the claims of either party.
Israel says it's not famine, I say that's not good enough. Simple.
> Convenient arguments, in my experience, are a sign one needs to rethink, not double down.
Again, every argument that gives the benefit of the doubt would fall under "convenient". Including many arguments you have no problem with. If you took the car example as a completely standalone argument, unchanged from how I originally stated it (so there would be nobody claiming "$4000 should be the limit"), would you have any problems with it?
While it seems undeniable the people of Gaza are experiencing food scarcity - we cannot lay blame soley at the foot of Israel here. That would be grossly disengenous and an outright falsehood.
For the famine, yes we can. Let the aid in. Let Hamas steal it. Now you can blame Hamas. The fact that we have zero evidence of Hamas stealing the current aid makes it entirely one side's fault.
Israel has no reason to support Hamas and their efforts here. If Hamas wasn't stealing all of the aid earlier in this conflict, perhaps aid would still be flowing into Gaza.
It doesn't seem so absolute/cut-and-dry like you try to make it.
We have no proof this was routinely happening [1].
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/26/world/middleeast/hamas-un...
[1] - https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/08/05/un-reports-88-percen...
Yes. I think a shop in San Francisco also had some candy bars stolen this AM. Doesn't mean Hamas did it.
So explain to us who is armed and can loot a moving UN convoy in the Gaza region???
This is some insane, wild, political nonsense.
That's not what the data say! "Intercepted" means what in retail one calls "shrinkage." It was there before. It isn't now.
A staffer could have stolen it. A security guard or driver could have been bribed. It could have been dropped off at the wrong location, or not tracked. It could have been ripped off a moving truck by unarmed, hungry people [1]. It could be non-militants who picked a gun off a dead combatant. Or it could be armed militants. Concluding that all shrinkage is the result of armed robbery is sort of like figuring everything a store's inventory system says was delivered to the store that isn't on the shelves and hasn't been sold was obviously robbed at gunpoint.
(I'm also not sure where you're getting the idea that these are armed convoys of UN assets being run through Gaza. Aid provisioning is generally much more rinky dink. And the "U.N. does not accept protection from Israeli forces, saying it would violate its rules of neutrality.")
[1] https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-aid-tru...
Here's a crazy idea. If hamas steal even 90% of the food, why not flood the area with so much fucking food it becomes worthless instead of letting humans starve as terrible collateral against your war goals?
Which approach do you think better serves the stated goals of defeating the terrorists?
Nah, isolation and cruelty it is. Israel has created generations of enemies.
Is it? Because not even the Arab countries that have recently recognized Israel don’t seem to particularly care about what Israel does in Gaza. Aside from a press release or a vote at the UN. All empty words.
Not a single Arab country that recognizes Israel has suspended (or even lowered) diplomatic relations with Israel.
I’m pretty sure that once the war in Gaza ends, everyone will be all too happy to forget that it even happened. Even if they won’t say it out loud.
It may have a lasting effect in America. Which would mean Israel finding friends in Russia, China and/or India, the latter two which would probably be fully on board with an actual ethnic cleansing of Gaza.
Not really. It's debating applying "tariffs on some Israeli goods and impos[ing] sanctions on Israeli settlers, and two members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet" [1].
(The EC has also endorsed Trump's 20-point plan [2].)
[1] https://apnews.com/article/eu-israel-sanctions-tariffs-gaza-...
[2] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025...
Even the recent recognition of the Palestinian state from Canada, UK and France. They know full and well that it’s basically a meaningless gesture.
...this is a really good idea. And American farmers are over a barrel due to tariffs...
And the definition does matter, because 'famine' has the meaning of a certain level of bad thing happening. If we do not preserve the meaning, then the word will not have a meaning, then we have no more word to talk about that bad thing, so we will pay no attention to averting or fixing the bad thing because we don't have the literal ability to talk about it.
I'm in favor of being able to have a productive discussion about famines and how to avoid them, so I'm in favor of having a word for 'famine' with a clearly defined meaning.
PS Do you really think the number “15%” is some natural value that nature or the Bible or teams of scientists chose to define “famine”? It’s an arbitrary threshold that someone picked because it’s a bit larger than 10% and less than 20% and divisible by the number of digits on the human hand.
But it’s a threshold. Remove the threshold and we lose accountability. Any level is simultaneously abhorrent and unavoidable.
A village of 100 people where 50% are starving is better than a country of 1,000,000 where 10% are.
Who cares?
We just watched this nonsense happen with the word genocide. Both sides were careless with it. Now, it's lost meaning. Famine is still a hard line in the sand. All the evidence points to Israel having breached that line. The solution isn't to get rid of the line, it's to point to the line, point to the ground and say you're past the fucking line.
This comment is widespread on X or other social media as the n-th conspiracy theory that Israel has staged the attack etc. Crazy.
Hell, we in the West have given Gaza (and indirectly, we knew it would go to Hamas) so much money. Did we support terrorism? How did we know that they would use our money to buy weapons to murder people in Israel instead of building good things?
For me this is more showing an utter incompetence both from Nethanyau and our Western leaders who totally didn't see how they outsmarted us for years. Why do you think our leaders can control everything and know everything? They can make mistakes out of incompetence.
I guess this strategy sometimes works in other countries, and sometimes they screw you :)
Would note that none of the recent recognitions, to my knowledge, said anything about borders. A Palestinian state that solely exists in the West Bank would be consistent with these statements.
Funded. Past tense. We funded the Mujahideen, once, and then got bombed by their successors.
The Mujahedeen did not morph into or rebrand as the Taliban. In fact they became the Northern Alliance, opposed to the Taliban.
Taliban didn't bomb America. Al Qaeda did. I believe bin Laden was in the Mujahideen.
Bin Laden claimed that neither he nor his specific group of Arab foreign fighters (which became the genesis of Al Qaeda) received funding from the US. Though the reality was that the US funded proxies which funded the Afghan Mujahedeen, so it's possible he may have indirectly benefited. Bin Laden was independently wealthy and largely self funded his group though.
un own statistics site https://www.ochaopt.org/data/crossings
food tracks fluctuate between 2000 and 3000 a month prior to oct 7th. a few more dozens of of tracks with "non-edible consumables" and "medical supplies". rest of tracks are construction materials
"farm land" part, they forgot to mention that gaza was always totally dependent on imported food. farmland iirc provides only few percent of calories required in gaza. live stock is also sustained by imported feed
What's interesting is that I don't see the zionist talking points changing at all. They still hold out hope they can accuse everyone of "anti-semitism" and they'll all get back in line like it's 2020. I think they're holding out hope things can go back to normal, but it will be hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube.
I'm not saying the Democrats have done great by Gaza, but I feel like the point we're at - irrefutable genocide through starvation - there would at least be significant pressure to stop attacking humanitarian convoys.
All I can really say about the current situation is that it would be a great time for the EU to step up, demonstrate some international leadership, and forcibly deliver aid under the guard of military force.
Nonsense. Israel has influence because a lot of American voters make Israel one of their ride-or-die issues. If that support shifts, the influence does, too.
> last couple of months also showed that international rules and agreements don't mean anything
Did you miss Russia invading Ukraine, America invading Iraq and China annexing Tibet? Or the ongoing genocides in Burma, Sudan and recently-concluded one in Ethiopia? (I think.)
Hope they got some good lines responding to accusations on how every single one of them, including the janitors at the CNN Center in Atlanta are antisemitic.
-"But we're not!" -"Aha, that's exactly what they always say, clearly a sign of guilt!" /s
I presume you meant to suggest Hamas is bathing in baby formula, but your link isn't evidence for that. It could be desperate people doing desperate things, you know, because they are starving.
The point is to distinguish this war from how others have been fought. A lot of accusations against the IDF's conduct have been baseless. Not wrong in that they're factually incorrect. Just wrong in that it's how everyone else fights wars when they go to war.
This is different. America didn't trigger a famine in Iraq or Afghanistan, and it's not like we fought those wars honorably. That is where it's worth answering the question, is this just war or is this worse.
The accusations of them deliberately shooting children in the head and targeting journalists have been proven unfortunately accurate time and time again.
We must be precise in our language when describing war crimes. No wiggle room.
Just as an example, if a Hamas soldier dons a PRESS vest, is he automatically immune?
In other words, so what if Hamas dons a press vest? We know the IDF have committed war crimes. They seem aware of it, too -
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli-army-set-hide-sol...
This isn't "they're waging a more intense war and accidentally killing more people" -- it is that their actual decision framework was to authorize killings with several multiples higher ratios of civilian deaths than the US authorized in the Middle East.
every boy 15 and over killed in drone strikes now is automatically listed as an enemy combatant
This math is why the civilian casualty numbers from US military shows almost zero deaths for drone strikes.
The New York Times reported in the 29 May 2012 article Secret ‘Kill List’ Proves a Test of Obama’s Principles and Will:
Mr. Obama embraced a disputed method for counting civilian casualties that did little to box him in. It in effect counts all military-age males in a strike zone as combatants, according to several administration officials, unless there is explicit intelligence posthumously proving them innocent.*For comparison, the Israeli government claims that a mere 53% of fatalities are civilians, substantially below independent estimates.
Tangentially related: On the other hand, several later surveys conducted during the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq (2003–2011) "all put the U5MR in Iraq during 1995–2000 in the vicinity of 40 per 1000," suggesting that "there was no major rise in child mortality in Iraq after 1990 and during the period of the sanctions." from same link above.
I struggle to believe that cessation of food imports, medicines, medical equipment etc would have no impact on a country reliant on them, and can't see why these sanctions would be enacted in the first place if they were thought to have no effect.
I see no moral justification for using food as a weapon.
Keep in mind that there is a lot of money to be made by defending Israel. Some people will take that money. Just a few citations below:
- Certain social media influencers being paid up to $7000 per post [1]
- Israel boosts propaganda funding by $150m to sway global opinion against genocide [2] [3]
- "[...] a firm called Bridges Partners LLC has been hired to manage an influencer network under a project code-named the “Esther Project.” " [4]
[1] https://responsiblestatecraft.org/israel-influencers-netanya...
[2] https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/isr...
[3] https://jewishchronicle.timesofisrael.com/israel-has-spent-m...
[4] https://www.jta.org/2025/09/30/united-states/israels-secret-...
When I was eight years old, I asked him why he always kept a room filled with dried cassava root. His reply was simple but unforgettable: dying from starvation is the most terrifying experience imaginable, and he was determined never to endure it again.
Molecular evidence was notably described in nematodes, so epigenetic inheritance is a very old mechanism. I don't think you could describe molecular transgenerational trauma as beautiful, or useful adaptation regarding human life. Especially considering the artificial nature of every famine in today's world, where we are producing enough food to feed all humans on earth three times over.
But let's not trivialize the issue. Most certainly, no-one here can even begin to understand starvation from experience. For starters, you would be in a total different state of mind, potentially delusional, disassociated, depressed, abulic, manic, have an altered perception of reality. During the Minnesota Starvation Experiment, participants mutilated themselves, one guy cut off three of his fingers with an axe and didn't remember why... in the rehab phase! Starvation is an holistic horror.
He also survived a head shot wound (visible on the side of his head) and doctors told him, that he should drink and smoke as much as he wants, because he wouldn't make it long anyway ... Well, he made it to old age and only dies a few years ago. (He did stop smoking, when my grandma also stopped. He smoked cigars and then from one day to the next, they both stopped doing that.)
However, I think it is in those Russian PoW camps, that he developed something we call "Hungerhast". I couldn't find a translation in 2 dictionaries, so I am not sure it is a proper term. Basically, body begins shaking, cannot stop hands from shaking, if he got hungry.
He didn't have higher education, but definitely had an engineer's mind. He built many things out of wood to sell them. For example he got into woodturning and also made traditional nutcrackers, which he also painted in various colors. Back in DDR this stuff was highly sought, because getting it from West Germany was not possible for everyone. He also had a writing side. Was able to come up with spoonerism (I just looked up that word. Not sure if correct. Some kind of phrase that rhymes.) and collected them.
People will latch onto even implausible justifications to avoid changing their opinion. When there's just nothing at all, it gets a bit difficult.
Way to whitewash a genocide. The title make it sound like the famine is accidental or an unintended consequence of Israel's "actions". While in reality, it's the sole purpose of what Israel is doing in Gaza for years, they are conducting a genocide, plain and simple.
I honestly think invoking the g- word is harmful to the Palestinian cause at this point.
It's a war. There are war crimes. Maybe there's genocidal intent. But that seems like a distraction compared to actual harm on the ground.
One, really important to specify that the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel said this, not the UN as a whole. "The UN" is generally held to be the General Assembly.
Two, I'm not disputing that it probably is a genocide. I'm just saying that people have been calling it a genocide well before we had evidence it was one. As a result, the term has lost moral weight.
Put another way, I don't think support for Palestine increases by calling it a genocide again. I do think it increases by showing, specifically, what the famine means for the kids on the ground can change hearts and minds. (Nobody, at this point, is probably going to be swung on a fundamental opinion. People may, however, re-prioritise this politically.)
At this point public opinion matters less than existing relationships.
The Holocaust was a genocide. It didn't exterminate the Jews.
> more accurate term is war crimes
Agree.
> At this point public opinion matters less than existing relationships
What do you mean?
The relationship is absolutely guided by public opinion. If Israeli support among registered Republicans starts hitting 50%, Trump is constrained.
It's currently 64% net sympathy for Israel and 9% for Palestine among Republicans. 55% of Trump voters say "Israel should continue its military campaign until Hamas is fully eliminated, even if it means the civilian casualties in Gaza might continue," while only 29% say "Israel should stop its military campaign in order to protect against civilian casualties, even if Hamas has not been fully eliminated" [1].
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/10/02/polls/times-s...
Quite frankly, the genocide of the Jewish people in Germany also started far sooner than just the final solution. But I guess "Never again" is just fancy words for pretenders.
No, what happened is the word got diluted into popular meaninglessness. ("It's not a war it's a genocide" doubling down on that mistake.) A lot of people called wolf early and often, and that did its damage. (I'm unconvinced they care. A lot of activism on this topic seems to be self serving.)
> the genocide of the Jewish people in Germany also started far sooner than just the final solution
Sure. We also didn't have international institutions whose job it is to investigate and identify genocide in WWII. Now we do. Turning "may be" and "at risk of" genocide into "is genocide" just means that when e.g. a credible UN agency determines it is genocide, the finding doesn't resonate.
680.000 and 380.000.
The total number of Palestinians murdered, and the number of those who were kids under 5 years old.
source: https://arena.org.au/politics-of-counting-gazas-dead/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip_famine
EDIT: only due to starvation
Official numbers have increased by less than 20.000 in the last year of genocide. Isn't that curious?
The drop is to be expected, since the fighting was much more intense in earlier phases of the war.
Maybe it helps to start smaller. Many (Israeli's) have told me that the IDF is the world's most 'honest' military - one that even warns buildings before they're bombed!
Then, you can imagine how difficult it was for me to reconcile that with many facts from the ground. Here's one. Only one. The Rafah paramedic massacre:
"Israel at first claimed that the medics' vehicles did not have emergency signals on when troops opened fire but later backtracked. Cellphone video recovered from one of the medics contradicted Israel's initial account."[0]
Is that a one-off lie?
0: https://www.npr.org/2025/04/20/nx-s1-5370617/israeli-probe-k...
Of course, militaries make mistakes and sometimes issue wrong statements, just as governments everywhere do in the fog of war. The Rafah paramedic case you cite is tragic, and investigations matter. But a single flawed or retracted statement doesn’t prove a systematic policy of “lying” or “massacre” just as one instance of misconduct in any country’s army doesn’t automatically invalidate its overall values or procedures.
if we’re going to judge Israel by its errors, we should also weigh the context in which those errors happen (urban warfare, Hamas embedding itself in civilian areas, use of ambulances to smuggle fighters or weapons, etc.). And we should also judge Hamas by its admitted policies - deliberately targeting civilians, embedding in hospitals, rejecting coexistence.
If we’re honest, both of us need to be open to the possibility that our sources and interpretations can be incomplete or biased. Real reflection means asking hard questions in both directions - not only of Israelis, not only of Palestinians.
To your first point, I've already agreed that the numbers seem faulty. Beyond that, I'm not sure what you're asking me to consider, beyond suspending belief. 60k people did die on the low end, many of them children.
From an outsider's perspective, the killing of 60k people in a small, corralled environment, many of which are children, says everything that can be said about the actor in question. This is without the additional context of years of West Bank occupations, experiencing the crazy two-tiered apartheid like system that is Israel (I've visited and was personally quite shocked), and other things.
Is Hamas terrible? Certainly. Would they do the same to Israel if they had the capabilities? Probably. But that doesn't change the facts on the ground.
Reuters estimates the deaths at 60,000 [ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-many-palestini... ]
The UN estimates it to be at about 65,000 [ https://www.ochaopt.org/content/reported-impact-snapshot-gaz... ]
Neither of which are around 600 thousand as the previous commenter posted. The French News Channel called France24 did a quick video explaining the current fake news that certain NGOs are spreading with misleading death counts -- https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20250624-...
Also "These numbers are just false" is not a valid argument.
Saying it's false is a valid argument against something completely ludicrous like 680,000 dead. If you expect everyone to come up with "valid arguments" for blindingly obvious things then it is you who is not carrying out polite conversation (as per your other comments)
I have provided a source for the numbers cited in the original comment. Where those numbers are explained.
"Official Palestinian tallies of direct deaths in the Gaza war likely undercounted the number of casualties by around 40% in the first nine months of the war as Gaza's healthcare infrastructure unravelled, according to a peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet journal in January."
Still, from those numbers, it seems difficult to stretch from 60k to 600k.
That said, even if you take the absolute tail number, 60k, how anyone can defend a genocide of 60k people in a land area smaller than Portland, in less than a year, is reprehensible. Especially when many of those are children. Almost one child murdered every 10 minutes, at the low end, for an entire year?
the article is taking projections and applying multiple extrapolations to them. It is a bad estimate.
The current estimates are between 53000 - 66000. About 10x lower than what you propose.
I expected better from HN.
We can study why this happened later. The genocide needs to stop now.
He undermined the two-state solution and Palestinian Authority. When you do this, you back people into a corner. There's no path to peacefully making progress on anything you care about. It also conveniently gives Netanyahu a boogeyman for his own political ends.
You might argue the PA was corrupt, etc. But that status quo was far better than what exists now.
He let Qatari cash find its way to Hamas.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended Israel’s regular allowing of Qatari funds to be transferred into Gaza, saying it is part of a broader strategy to keep Hamas and the Palestinian Authority separate, a source in Monday’s Likud faction meeting said.
The prime minister also said that, “whoever is against a Palestinian state should be for” transferring the funds to Gaza, because maintaining a separation between the PA in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza helps prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/netanyahu-money-...
Even for Palestinians, the PA’s rule was hardly a path to peace or progress. Billions in foreign aid were stolen by elites, elections were canceled, dissent was crushed, and everyday life was marked by both authoritarianism and insecurity. So while today’s Hamas reality is undeniably worse, pretending the old PA era was some kind of lost golden path to peace overlooks that it was already a dead end for both peoples.
“it became notorious for corruption, power struggles, and failing to deliver basic services”
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-united-states-iran-an...
Agreed. But as a close friend -- who spent years living and working in the Middle East, including Gaza, and very well connected there -- pointed out to me, it's very hard to believe that Israel, with one of the most, if not the most, heavily guarded borders in the world, with arguably the best intelligence force in the world that is very embedded in the Palestinian Territories, did not know of the attack in advance, if not the details. Think about how much Israel had to gain from letting it happen and it becomes an easy decision.
So while I'm not closed to the idea that Netanyahu is a bad man. I find it hard to rationalize the actions of the people who were "backed into a corner"?
But also, that's forty-eight dead. The fiasco started after "a 'United Ukraine' rally was attacked by pro-Russian separatists." And this was criminality by a protest group (in predominantly pro-Russian territory, no less) not any party claiming to govern Ukraine.
>A 'United Ukraine' rally was attacked by pro-Russian separatists where Stones, petrol bombs and gunfire were exchanged. The pro-Ukraine protesters then moved to dismantle a pro-Russian protest camp in Kulykove Pole, causing some pro-Russian activists to barricade themselves in the nearby Trade Unions House. Shots were fired by both sides, and the pro-Ukraine protesters attempted to storm the building, which caught fire as the two groups threw petrol bombs at each other.
While I personally condemn Hamas's tactics and don't recognize their political legitimacy, Ukraine has billions in modern military equipment, including tanks and fighter planes. They have conventional military options Palestinians could only dream of.
Ukraine has also been supplied with intelligence, weapons and materiel from other countries in Europe, with which they also share land borders, as well as the United States. Palestinians can't even get food from Egypt, their immediate neighbor.
> there is not a single documented case where they [Ukraine] have attacked civilians or civilian infrastructure.
It must further be observed that Israel has likely killed over 100,000 civilians and miles of civilian infrastructure, even as they enjoy the upper hand economically and militarily. Whatever damage Hamas has done to Israel, Israel has retaliated far out of proportion to Palestinian civilians, in a way that is judged calculated to be genocidal.
It's funny because until they started winning, it was basically, "they're done in 3 days", now it's, oh they have billions in equipment etc.
Here's a question for you, why didn't Hamas have that? Why didn't the rest of the world send them more aid and weapons aid? Hmm strange.
Killing civilians is bad, killing soldiers invading your land is protected by international law.
October 7 is a tragic grain of sand in an desert of horrors the palestinian people suffered for nearly a century.
If you were in an "open air prison" (silly term, but ok), would your next move be to raid a peace and love festival and slaughter kids ? Just wondering?
Crimea contains multiple resorts! (And they've been selectively targeted when political and military elites are present [1].)
[1] https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/other/ukrainian-drones-strike...
The PA is a captured extension of the Israeli security state. The PA is standing by while Israeli settlers systematically kill, chase off and terrorize Palestinians on the West Bank. IOF soldiers will idly stand by while a settler just comes up with a (government-supplied) gun, shoots a 60 year old farmer and then complains to the Army that the locals are harassing them.
Not doubting you--I'm still learning about this conflict--but source?
Why do people keep bringing this up as if it matters? Every piece of land has had someone living on it for the last 10,000 years, how does it matter that some group lived there in like 500 bce then a jewish tribe came in and then later some other tribe came in and so on.
Think of how many Arab states exist.
Now think of how many Jewish states exist.
Israel is literally the only claim to land Jews have. Have you seen the size of Israel? It's not exactly gigantic
Its almost as if the Muslims conquered Israel to take the land for their own.
At some moment in time, the first human built a house there, then sometime later some other people showed up then sometime later the israeli tribe conquered the land then the romans conquered it and so on until some muslim tribe conquered it and then in 1950 or whenever the current people conquered it.
Which one of those groups is supposed to have some kind extra special entitlement to live there?
Would note that there is a huge divide between violent resistance and terrorism, same as there is between counter-insurgency and war crimes.
There... is? Really?
So no, what really happened was precisely the opposite of “eliminating all other avenues of Palestinian political expression.”
Taking a broader perspective, large parts of the human race have come to realize famine is a relic of the past. Modern agriculture, synthetic fertilizer, and the technology of the last 100+ years has made famine optional. There is without a doubt the technological capacity to supply every person on earth with food and clean water. Nobody needs to go hungry to feed every person in Gaza. The same could be said of Sudan, or Bangladesh, or Haiti.
200 years ago, famine was usually a natural disaster; now it is almost exclusively a political choice.
Though my point was more about considering the historical context. Famines used to happen all the time but largely because of crop failures. That famine is _caused_ has become common knowledge is, I think, at least an improvement. ~All~ Most of the famines that could've happened for the old reasons haven't.
Admittedly, I'm grasping at straws to avoid dwelling on the horrid situation at hand.
> at least two in every 10,000 people die each day from starvation, or from malnutrition and disease.
Gaza population is 2 million * 2/10000 = 400 people dying per day in order for it to be a famine.
> After more than 700 days of war, 455 Palestinians have died of malnutrition or starvation, including 151 children, the health ministry in Gaza reported on October 1. One hundred and seventy-seven of the total number have died of malnutrition or starvation since the IPC confirmed famine on August 15, it said.
Is 455 in 700 days more than 400 per day? I don’t know, I’m having trouble doing math. Perhaps the people of HN can tell me the IPC standard is being met as the CNN article states?
Media and general literacy is apparently impossible even for journalists.
In August, the IPC found about 514,000 Gazans are Phase 5 (famine / humanitarian catastrophe) [1][2]. It projected by September that was around 641,000. So the threshold you're looking for is a crude death rate (CDR) between 100 and 120 per day.
CRD "needs to be directly attributable to outright starvation or to the interaction of food consumption deficits and disease" and does not include trauma [3]. So it will be more than just confirmed deaths from malnutrition or starvation (which is, in practice, impossible to procure for anywhere on even the brink of famine).
[1] https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_Food_Security_Phase...
[3] https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/I...
The rate of death in Gaza from those causes is nowhere near that CDR. The total death rate from all causes is substantially below that number (by a factor of 4).
Source?
> The total death rate from all causes is substantially below that number (by a factor of 4)
You're still making the mistake of taking statistics from across Gaza and pretending that's relevant. Based on your method, there has never been a crime wave anywhere in the world because the global crime rate tends to be somewhat stable across time and countries.
Literally the OP and the magical thing called math I did in my last post.
Their strategy was, I think, as bad as it could possibly be. In fact, it really seemed, and still seems, like no strategy at all -- they lashed out wildly and extremely destructively, without a clear picture of what the post-war Gaza Strip will look like.
Hamas successfully baited Israel into a disproportionate response that killed tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, which played directly into the dynamics of guerrilla warfare where a strong state's extreme actions against a weak opponent undermine its legitimacy.
Walking into such a trap tends to be a real world-historical blunder for any nation.
Yet, rather than adapting, Israel's network doubled down with censorship campaigns, crackdowns on protests, and weaponizing "anti-semitism" accusations to silence critics -- actions that have all backfired. Now international support is collapsing, the EU is pushing sanctions, and the US is slowly distancing itself. Israel's best option right now is to end the war as quickly as possible, and devote all of its efforts to repairing damaged relationships and mitigating the war's effects, before isolation accelerates to the level of sanctions similar to those imposed on South Africa.
I'll also note that it's interesting how all sides seem to have lost. Hamas lost the shooting war, the people of Gaza have lost lives and livelihoods which may take more than a decade to rebuild, and Israel lost the information/media war so damn badly that it may genuinely not recover from this.
This couldn't and shouldn't have been a re-run of the countless previous clashes with Hamas. Israel needed to go all out to change the security situation, permanently.
Public opinion in the US has turned against Israel, yes. Trump doesn't care about public opinion. He'll be buddy-buddy to Netanyahu other than symbolic acts of distancing / reprimanding.
Of course he does. But he's currently most sensitive to Republican voters' opinions, and they're still at 64% net sympathy for Israel and 9% for Palestine. (55% of Trump voters say "Israel should continue its military campaign until Hamas is fully eliminated, even if it means the civilian casualties in Gaza might continue," while only 29% say "Israel should stop its military campaign in order to protect against civilian casualties, even if Hamas has not been fully eliminated" [1].)
As the midterms come closer, that 26% independent net support for Israel becomes more pertinent, as do the 67% of independents who want Israel to stop its campaign.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/10/02/polls/times-s...
Israel probably came out ahead if all they lost is prestige.
They've neutered Iran and become the de facto regional security power. Their weapons and military have been validated, which makes than a desirable trading partner in an increasingly-militarising world. And they're turning into a gas exporter.
Worst case, a generational shift occurs and Israel loses its military support from America. (I don't see us sanctioning Israel any time soon, so its economic primacy will remain intact. And we only pay for like 15% of their military budget, so not a disaster.) Do you really think China and India would even hesitate to partner with Tel Aviv on defense?
During the Rhodesian Bush War, their forces ran circles around the ZIPRA and ZANLA with multiple battles and encounters where they'd routinely record 500:1 KD ratios like Operation Dingo, etc. They had complete freedom of action to bomb any infrastructure obstructing them, reach deep into neighboring countries and slaughter guerillas copiously.
Hell, South Africa had a dozen nukes.
Once the sanctions came on, it unraveled everything they had.
Israel is in such a precarious situation right now. Their economy depends on technology exports to an extreme degree. Cutting off that source of FX would literally half the economy overnight because cash would stop sloshing around internally from its main sources.
If that happens, all the smart kids propping up the economy will move out while you're left with extremists who want war but won't fight in the army. In fact, it's ongoing right now with people leaving the country in the midst of a war they're 'winning.'
You might think sanctions are a far-off notion, but key Western powers are breaking with America on recognizing Palestine. That's a red line designed to signal to Israel that it's losing ground. People across the world are calling for sanctions and it won't be long before they materialize.
And America? Israel's main power base are American boomer evangelicals who're going the way of the dinosaur. Like I said in another comment, their kids are either not religious, don't like bombing kids, have been radicalized by the atrocities they've witnessed, or are aligned with people like Fuentes.
I hope they can smell the coffee; if anyone had told South Africa that a nuclear power could be disarmed without a gunshot, they'd never have believed it. But, look what eventually happened.
Thanks to the ongoing genocide, America's voting demographic for the next 40 years has begun to see Israel as a genocidal terrorist state. They will be voting for the next 50 years, while the boomer evangelicals die off.
My point is this isn't a realistic threat for Israel. Its exports are highly desirable to too many parties. Technology. Weapons. Energy. There is too much money to be made, too much advantage to be had.
Yes, if the war in Gaza continues for another decade, Israel will run out of goodwill. But if it wraps up within a year or two? I don't see anything happening quickly enough that they can't adapt. Apartheid was a permanent state. The war need not be.
> America's voting demographic for the next 40 years has begun to see Israel as a genocidal terrorist state. They will be voting for the next 50 years
I'd say a strategic prerogative for Israel at this point is to diversify away from America. It's unfortunate. But they screwed a golden goose.
For the aforementioned reasons, however, that isn't existential. Particularly given India and China have what they consider to be problematic Muslim populations within and around themselves, too.
Everything Israel makes is fungible. The middle east is a river of gas. Israel's defense technology industry can't exist without Western partners. Hell, America denying them F35 repairs/upgrades effectively kills their airforce.
>Yes, if the war in Gaza continues for another half decade, Israel will run out of goodwill. But if it wraps up within a year or two? I don't see anything happening quickly enough that they can't adapt. Apartheid was a permanent state. The war need not be.
The damage has been done. Hundreds of millions globally now voice opinions about Israel openly that they wouldn't have allowed to just a few years back. These people vote in their countries, buy products, interact in the real world. We're seeing Israeli tourists get harassed openly. Would have been unthinkable in, say, 2020.
>Yeah, I'd say a strategic prerogative for Israel at this point is to diversify away from America. For the aforementioned reasons, however, I don't see that being a problem. Particularly given India and China have what they consider to be problematic Muslim populations within and around themselves, too.
India cannot even field 4.5 generation jets. Their airforce (French Rafales) got whooped in the recent confrontation with Pakistan. In fact, after China delivers Pakistan's J35s, India would have nothing to counter it. Israel's military core is air supremacy so much so that it is state doctrine to use nukes if the IAF is ever destroyed.
And China, trying to project an image of fairness to the third-world, as an alternative power, supports a two-state solution. Unlike Western politicians, they can't be lobbied and bribed to support endless wars.
I have my gripes with the West but they're still a superpower bloc. If they sanction you, you're fucked. There's a reason even China keeps its dealings with sanctioned Russian companies plausibly deniable. To avoid contagion.
You just don't understand how dependent Israel is on the West. 53% of their exports are technology goods. If you're cut off from Western markets, not only will China not buy much from Israel, they will copy their products and compete with them.
The only country you can build a shared resistance towards Muslims is India. For now, their economy is small and irrelevant. China has their Islamist problem under control and they won't want to offend the moneybag Arabs by supporting Israel (LMAO).
Israeli weapons are absolutely not fungible, particularly not for non-Western buyers. And something being fungible doesn't make it less valuable.
> America denying them F35 repairs/upgrades effectively kills their airforce
Correct. I am guessing we'll see diversification here.
> India cannot even field 4.5 generation jets. Their airforce (French Rafales) got whooped in the recent confrontation with Pakistan
...and guess who makes a state-of-the-art integrated air defences? And knows how to penetrate (and thus harden) state-of-the-art Russian air defence systems?
> China, trying to project an image of fairness to the third-world, as an alternative power, supports a two-state solution
Uh, China is doing whatever it can to keep America distracted. If Israel can give China technology, China will continue calling for a two-state solution while buying what it needs. (Chinese-Israeli trade has increased throughout the war.)
> have my gripes with the West but they're still a superpower bloc. If they sanction you, you're fucked
Israel is not at material risk of blanket sanctions from the West in the next decade. And being a democracy, there is a lot of good a change of face can do.
> 53% of their exports are technology goods
Why does this have to go to America and Western Europe?
> China has their Islamist problem under control and they won't want to offend the moneybag Arabs by supporting Israel
Which of the Arab monarchies is particularly distressed with Israel? Which has even walked back its previous support and recognition? The Gulf is more than happy for Israel to fight their wars against Iran. If the war dies down, they've got more important things to worry about. (Their populations have never liked Israel. Not super relevant.)
It seems that everyone in this conflict has doomsday fantasies for their opponents. The Gazans will all shrivel up and die. Israel will poof away because young Americans decide foreign policy--not jobs or housing or the rule of law--is their single issue. These extreme outcomes are incredibly unlikely.
My claim was specifically with China in mind. Pretty much everything the Americans will let Israel sell to non-Western partners can be gotten from China, Turkey, etc. cheaper and with less headache.
>Correct. I am guessing we'll see diversification here.
Yep. Introducing my magical new fighter jet that replaces the f35!
>...and guess who makes a state-of-the-art integrated air defences? And knows how to penetrate (and thus harden) state-of-the-art Russian air defence systems?
Well, it probably didn't work great given how India fared recently, did it? They're a committed partner of Israel and collaborate on military tech.
>Uh, China is doing whatever it can to keep America distracted. If Israel can give China technology, China will continue calling for a two-state solution while buying what it needs. (Chinese-Israeli trade has increased throughout the war.)
The only thing China reliably does is single-mindedly pursue their interests. Propping Israel up doesn't achieve that. In fact they're quite chummy with the Palestinians and lots of the weapons used for the Oct. 7 raid were Chinese-made.
>Israel is not at material risk of blanket sanctions from the West in the next decade.
If you say so. The chances of the Five Eyes breaking with America on recognizing Palestine were also exactly zero just a few months ago.
>Why does this have to go to America and Western Europe?
Because they're the only ones who have the money for it. No non-Western company/country has the amount of tech demand/cash to have completed the Wiz acquisition for $32b in cash. Their software markets have no viable customers outside the West.
>Which of the Arab monarchies is particularly distressed with Israel? Which has even walked back its previous support and recognition? The Gulf is more than happy for Israel to fight their wars against Iran.
Good point.
>It seems that everyone in this conflict has doomsday fantasies for their opponents.
I have no dog in the fight. Both countries could disappear overnight and it wouldn't affect my quality of life. I'm simply a student of history and I'm trained to see patterns.
Pakistan shot down Indian plane(s). India didn't return the favour. Worse, Pakistan's integrated air defence systems had situational awareness; it's clear Indian Rafale pilots didn't even see the shots coming.
It's not a victory for one side or the other, overall. But in the air battle, Pakistan gained tactical supremacy.
A lot of folks have looked at a lot of OSINT. There is no evidence of any Indian kills. The best we can say is we have zero confirmed kills by India on Pakistan. For what it's worth, New Delhi seems to have backed off repeating its claims of kills internationally.
> Pakistan claims to have shit down six jets and India says it's 3
India claims three jets crashed for unknown reasons [1]. French and US officials have indirectly confirmed those kills [2][3]. Internationally, it's being treated as three confirmed kills by Pakistan.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/three-fighter-jet...
[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-bro...
[3] https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-attac...
You really think the French, Swedes, Russians or Chinese won't sell them planes? They're seeking to be a regional power. They don't need F-35s. (Though they're certainly handy.)
> probably didn't work great given how India fared recently, did it?
India doesn't field Israeli air defences...
> only thing China reliably does is single-mindedly pursue their interests. Propping Israel up doesn't achieve that
I'll grant that China has been the most consistent on Israel and Palestine. Nevertheless, Israeli-Chinese trade keeps growing.
> If you say so. The chances of the Five Eyes breaking with America on recognizing Palestine were also exactly zero just a few months ago
Really? According to whom? I haven't been in the UN for a while, but everyone I knew was asking when, not if. It clearly works for domestic politics, doubly following the recent trade concessions.
Netherlands (not Five Eyes) was 1 in 3 [1]. Canada and France were making motions for a while; Japan and Italy were like 50% going back two months.
> they're the only ones who have the money for it
The U.S. funds about 15% of Israel's defence budget. We allow them to splurge in a way they can't alone. But that just means they can't defeat Hezbollah and Iran and Hamas at the same time without us.
[1] https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogpalestine/palestine-recogn...
The fact we're even having this conversation is the point. Top-end equipment was always guaranteed. The fact you're shopping around mentally for second-best points to that.
>I'll grant that China has been the most consistent on Israel and Palestine. Nevertheless, Israeli-Chinese trade keeps growing.
Well, there's a reason why they've been consistent on it so far. If Israel's trade comes to depend significantly on them, they can use it as leverage against them.
>Really? According to whom? I haven't been in the UN for a while, but everyone I knew was asking when, not if. It clearly works for domestic politics, doubly following the recent trade concessions.
I should have been more specific than a few months ago. Here's what I meant. Many of these countries have no issues against Palestine, but wouldn't break openly with the US position because of how dependent they are. That happening is a vibe shift.
>The U.S. funds about 15% of Israel's defence budget. We allow them to splurge in a way they can't alone. But that just means they can't defeat Hezbollah and Iran and Hamas at the same time without us.
You keep taking my statements out of context, attacking a point I didn't make and then claiming victory. I'm not even addressing US aid to Israel, which is extensive. I'm talking about their economy! Without that trade, the economy will shrink by a lot. The technologists bringing in that FX will move away in large numbers. Spending will have to reduce by half or more, especially given Israel already has a high tax-to-gdp-ratio. The country won't survive it. More high earners will leave and you'll go into a death spiral.
Dozens of UN resolutions have been issued against Israel and vetoed by the US. If it happens without American support, they'll be placed under an intl. embargo until they comply. Ask Iran what intl. embargoes have done to crush their economy before you wave it off. What America offers Israel is both a large export market they don't have internally, and protection from consequences.
Israel is too integrated with the West, going as far as competing in Eurovision, UEFA, etc. If they break with the West, they can't survive it. I cite Rhodesia as an example repeatedly because that's where they slowly but surely ended up.
If you end up with Western sanctions, no matter your country's size, you're fucked. USSR and Maoist China can give you any lectures you want.
The 'chosen people' delusion can make it seem economic realities don't apply, but the earlier Israel can get to a lasting peace while conditions are favorable, the better.
I've literally not thought about this until you brought it up. My point is there is an extensive list of eager jet sellers who would step up to the plate.
> If Israel's trade comes to depend significantly on them, they can use it as leverage against them
Sure? Same as America can now. This defeats the argument that Israel is being economically isolated, or faces devastation from losing America as a close ally in decades.
> Many of these countries have no issues against Palestine, but wouldn't break openly with the US position because of how dependent they are. That happening is a vibe shift
It's been months in the making. Not paying attention doesn't make something surprising. It would have been extremely surprising if Canada, the UK and France didn't recognise Palestine, and I'm saying this going back half a year.
> I'm talking about their economy! Without that trade, the economy will shrink by a lot
But going back to the top, there are plenty of other trading partners America's third of exports could be replaced with. Not entirely. Not on as great terms. But close enough to keep Israel reigning as a regional hegemony.
> technologists bringing in that FX will move away in large numbers
Where are you getting this notion that tech exports are a major source of FX for Israel? Or that Israel would stop being a tech centre if America turned its back on it? (And again, major emerging gas exporter.)
> you'll go into a death spiral
I'm not Israeli. I've never been to Israel.
> Dozens of UN resolutions have been issued against Israel and vetoed by the US. If it happens without American support, they'll be placed under an intl. embargo until they comply
Look at the list of UNSC sanctioned countries [1]. They're symbolic. The point is to cause members to enact follow-on sanctions [2]. When that doesn't happen, they're ineffective.
> Ask Iran what intl. embargoes have done to crush their economy
They're...still around. You also missed Angola, Yemen, North Korea...
> Israel is too integrated with the West, going as far as competing in Eurovision, UEFA, etc. If they break with the West, they can't survive it. I cite Rhodesia as an example repeatedly because that's where they slowly but surely ended up
I get this is your hypothesis. It simply isn't sustained. This is before we get to the point that if a couple Western countries sanction Israel for shits and giggles, there is a lot of money to be made by someone defecting and acting 'neutrally'.
(Also, in any world where Israel is sanctioned, Palestine gets devastated. That's simply the nature of having an economic basket case as a neighbour.)
Again, there seem to be folks who like to see patterns that sustain extreme outcomes that support a moral view of the world. You're having to go so deep into hypotheticals while being able to surface zero sources because the precedented outcome for this war--like most others that caused moral outrage in the West--is that we forget about it and move on and then everyone goes back to making money again.
(The only note I'd add is that if this rhetoric becomes commonplace, that America is destined to abondon Israel, it incentivises one outcome and one outcome only: destroying Palestine today, quickly and decisively. Nobody talks about that because nobody really buys the pitch you're making outside pro-Palestinian activist circles. I'm also not criticising you personally. Ukraine was my pet war. I absolutely bought into all sorts of conspiracies about Russia getting sidelined and partitioned up. We all want to see patterns that sustain the illusion of a just world.)
[1] https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/en/sanctions/information
From their own economic publications. Tech exports are 53% of their export output. Gas is a laughable non-issue. Like I said earlier, the middle east is full of it. It's not a significant source of leverage since every third country has it.
>UN sanctions are way less biting than American secondary sanctions alone.
You can always tunnel around sanctions, but it kills a lot of your open-market economy. You have to sell for a lower, discounted price. Acquisitions and mergers are effectively over. Sales shrink by a lot. Your largest companies move away to avoid contagion. I mean, have you ever read about the sanctions on Rhodesia & south Africa?
>They're...still around. And they never had a weapons sector like Israel's.
They're severely, terribly weakened. Even China won't sell them any modern airframes. That should tell you something.
>I get this is your hypothesis. It simply isn't sustained. This is before we get to the point that if a couple Western countries sanction Israel for shits and giggles, there is a lot of money to be made by someone defecting and acting 'neutrally'.
I have evidence of Western & non-western countries banding together to sanction consistent bad actors, despite being even more Western than Israel will ever be. Do you have any evidence of any country surviving sanctions without severe economic damage? Please share; my viewpoint has abundant proof. I'm just supposed to believe yours.
>Again, there seem to be folks who like to see patterns that sustain extreme outcomes that support a moral view of the world. You're having to go three levels deep for every turn because the most precedented outcome here is everyone forgets and moves on.
I don't have a dog in the fight. Both countries could die to the last man and I'd still go on my merry way, whistling. I'm simply projecting based on history, which is why I cite precedent that you refuse to admit.
Sure. Where are you getting that these are a critical source of FX?
> Gas is a laughable non-issue
To FX? Seriously?
> have you ever read about the sanctions on Rhodesia & south Africa?
Yes. Zimbabwe is still sanctioned. South Africa had preëxisting power-sharing negotiations.
> Even China won't sell them any modern airframes. That should tell you something
...that Beijing isn't drunk? Why do you think Washington got pissed off when Turkey bought Russian air defences and let them paint our fighter fleet?
> have evidence of Western & non-western countries banding together to sanction consistent bad actors
One, during a unipolar world. Someone else commented on this, but in a multipolar world, that is a luxury that simply doesn't emerge. (Even the bilateral world of the Cold War very rarely saw international sanctions regimes effected. That was just a nudge for someone to switch from one system of alliances to another.)
> Do you have any evidence of any country surviving sanctions without severe economic damage?
Yes [2]. In the short term, they cause damage. ("Severe" needs to be quantified, however--when regime change is targeted, it's only successful about a third of the time.) In the long term, they're less effective. Economies go into cockroach mode.
If you want a list, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Belarus, Burma and Venezuela are each heavily sanctioned and pretty much setting themselves up to permanently be so. (Pyongyang and Minsk having practically turned it into an art.)
> I'm simply projecting based on history, which is why I cite precedent
You haven't cited anything! Based on history, Israel is highly unlikely to get sanctioned by anyone, let alone America, and if it were, it's likely to be fine.
[2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01475...
And they clearly don’t. China actively talks against it (because it builds global goodwill on the diplomatic stage) and India only plays lip service (they have more to gain from the Gulf than Israel).
They've both deepened trade ties with Israel throughout the war. India is literally selling Israel weapons [1].
[1] https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/war-on-gaza-indian-made-i...
Yes. That's trade. It's true for most international relationships.
You don’t get to have your cake and eat it too. China and India don’t have an ideological relationship with Israel. So Israel is never going to “diversify” (your words) their relationship to the point that China is shooting down cruise missiles flying over Tel Aviv on their behalf.
> India don’t have an ideological relationship with Israel
Right-wing Indians and Israelis actually have quite a bit in common. I don’t think it’s enough to sustain a long-term alliance. And New Delhi is no Washington. (It’s also a buyer of Iranian oil.)
But there are outright exterminationist wings in both countries, and their enemies share the same faith.
During the Cold War they played both sides: socialist but democratic.
Even now they can get the Chinese on the line in a minutes notice. I’m pretty sure the Chinese are running one of their ports.
China has actually been more arms length in this conflict, possibly due to its relations with Iran, possibly because it wants Israel to fully commit east. (Possibly because they have a moral position on occupation and genocide, though unlikely, it's not like they're handing back Tibet and Xinxiang.)
While it’s bad what’s happening, it’s still nowhere near Syrian or Yemeni levels, although that may change.
The best analogy I can think of is the Allied conduct in Germany at the end of WWII. WWII was a just and defensive war. But the bombing of Dresden and atrocities by the Soviet Army were unnecessary and dishonorable.
Israel is now engaged in unnecessary and dishonorable conduct. They’ve been demoted from impressive to embarrassing.
But they’re still a legitimate country, just like, say, Saudi Arabia.
Okay. Opinions are on a spectrum. just like you, hundreds of millions of people who used to be pretty neutral on Israel now have strong opinions on the country. As a country, you generally want to blend in like Singapore/Switzerland and just not attract attention. Israel is attracting that attention, and for very bad reasons.
Western voters are childlike and emotional. They hate seeing blood on screen, children crying, starving, dying, being squeezed in queues for food. For any reason at all. Israel might seem like just another middle eastern country to you, but when you aggregate across 8 billion people, the average vibe has shifted negatively. By a lot.
>While it’s bad what’s happening, it’s still nowhere near Syrian or Yemeni levels
Tell that to Western voters who will be voting for 50 years. No one cares. just make it stop.
>But they’re still a legitimate country, just like, say, Saudi Arabia.
You're being nuanced. Cool. But the average human is not. Good luck beaming that moderate position into everyone's minds.
There are like half a dozen wars of extermination currently occuring with lots of disturbing footage. Nobody really cares. Israel is close to home because it's an ally and we styled it as a Western-style democracy (versus something closer to the Middle Eastern democracy it is.)
> Tell that to Western voters who will be voting for 50 years. No one cares. just make it stop
There are precisely zero foreign policy issues that have survived this long on the back of vibes alone.
Christian Zionist support for Israel is 100% based off vibes. Hitler's plan to invade Russia & exterminate its people for living space was based off Master Race vibes. America's Manifest destiny was based off vibes. Anti-communist domino theory was based off vibes and 58k young American kids died in Vietnam for it, not counting the 153k maimed and injured. Japan's imperial delusions that got them nuked was based off vibes.
Want me to go on?
>There are like half a dozen wars of extermination currently occurring with lots of disturbing footage. Nobody really cares. Israel is close to home because it's an ally and we styled it as a Western-style democracy (versus something closer to the Middle Eastern democracy it is.)
Would you kindly name them, good sir? Off the top of my head, I think Sudan. But, no Westerner really cares about Sudan. Israel they do care about because of the media onslaught and their countries' stance on the issue. It's one of those conflicts you just can't unsee.
This is totally serious analysis that is reflective of mainstream analysis and not just the projection of highly partisan political views. Foreign Policy Analysts certainly will be going to be making decisions based on views like this!
There's no need to debunk a gish-gallop. I'd simply make the claim that this poster's views are not reflected by the overwhelming majority of academic historians and foreign policy analysts in any country, certainly not in reductively reducing things to "deluded people". That's more of sign of unserious polemics.
Couldn't possibly be that in the post-colonial world there was a burst of new countries, the superpowers were constrained militarily by MAD, and thus both engaged on a worldwide game of attracting potential military allies and trading partners into their respective spheres of influence while denying the other the same wherever possible?
> Would you kindly name them, good sir? Off the top of my head, I think Sudan. But, no Westerner really cares about Sudan
Sudan. Burma. Tigray. (Ukraine. Uyghurs, technically, too, but we don't have footage because China's gotten good at this since Tibet.)
> Israel they do care about because of the media onslaught and their countries' stance on the issue. It's one of those conflicts you just can't unsee
One. Among many.
Uniquely capturing American attention. But so was Darfur once. And #StopKony before that. Barring Israel literally continuing this war for another twenty years, chances are, it too will be forgotten. There really is just that much horribleness constantly happening in the world. I cannot imagine the 2030s will be so blissfully peaceful as to allow us to continue to fixate on the crimes of decades past.
The pro-palestine progressives are rapidly loosing political power, if not being targeted right now by the Trumpian administration. The National Conservatives may be isolationist regarding free funding, but they certainly aren't going to sanctioning Israel or ending arms sales, while Pro-Palestine is pretty much a useful proxy as is for them to signify "un-americans".
Furthermore, the sanctions on South Africa occurred within the context of the Liberal International Era where one could afford to alienate a state in a region with little importance. But it's posters like you that have been calling for the so-called multipolar world, which is where NGOs and Human Rights will be sidelined in favour of a Westphalian-Type Sovereignity whereby hard interests decide foreign policy, not human rights concerns. In that Realist context, it is virtually within complete interests for the Gulf States and other actors to align with Israel over Iran, the former which has proven itself militairly and acts accordingly to economic interest, whereas the latter is bordering on a failed state still motivated by irrational hegemonic concerns. In the same context, a Palestinian states that takes over Israel basically will likely be detrimental to the other actors.
Westphalian sovereignty refers to "a principle in international law that each state has exclusive sovereignty over its territory" [1]. It doesn't support realpolitik nor negate human rights. The only degree to which it intersects with the latter is in arguing against foreign intervention. (Which realpolitik encourages.) It's a concept that was promulgated to integrate previously-independent city states into the larger nation-states and empires of the time.
It's also quite idiotically named, given the actual Peace of Westphalia dealt with foreign powers deciding what to do with the Holy Roman Empire at the end of the Thirty Years' War, with France and Sweden being "recognised as guarantors of the imperial constitution with a right to intercede" [2], sort of the opposite of inviolable sovereignty.
Today, it tends to be something Putin brings up, again, quite idiotically, given he's constantly fucking around in other countries' affairs.
(You're broadly correct that in a Realist international framework the morality of Israel's actions are irrelevant. And that everyone advocating for a multipolar world shifts us in the Realist direction. Practically, however, these are models, not theories, and they coëxist with each other.)
Not independently. At this point, Israel is independently a de facto regional power. The strike in Doha drove that home. (As did the attacks on Iran, which delivered a geostrategic win to Riyadh that Washington was never able to.)
How did they "neuter" Iran? Iran responded quickly and managed to heavily damage TelAviv and is now rushing to accelerate rebuilding their nuclear capabilities.
If anything, the previous operation was a disaster, it allowed to regime to entrench itself even further in IRAN and regime change that they were hoping for didn't happen.
I'm sure both Iran and Israel are gearing up for another round of heavy conflict later this year or early next year.
IRAN is still very much a threat to Israel.
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/irans-air-force-is-start...
Israel gained air superiority over Iran and successfully conducted military decapitation strikes. Iran sort of launched some half-assed rockets in Israel's direction.
The only damage Israel has suffered is to its intelligence faculties in Iran.
> the previous operation was a disaster, it allowed to regime to entrench itself even further in IRAN and regime change that they were hoping for didn't happen
It was a tactical failure and strategic success. Iran's proxies have been shown they're completely fucking on their own--Tehran can't defend itself.
As for regime change, Israel didn't prosecute its war in a way that suggests that was the aim. Separatism? Yes. Destabilisation? Sure. Incapacitation? Surely. But regime change? I really don't think so. Knocking out the regime would likely mean elements of the IRGC consolidating power. That isn't a win for Israel.
> I'm sure both Iran and Israel are gearing up for another round of heavy conflict later this year or early next year
Iran doesn't have the ranged capability.
> IRAN is still very much a threat to Israel
I haven't seen any credible, impartial analysis that suggests this is remotely the case.
What happens when it turns into a contest of rocket production and absorption against a country with 10x the population and 20x the land area? Completely unwinnable for Israel. Iran doesn't need air superiority to fire rockets.
Iran was rapidly running out of launchers. Once Israel gained air supremacy, it severely reduced its launcher deployment to avoid losing them for nothing.
> What happens when it turns into a contest of rocket production and absorption against a country with 10x the population and 20x the land area? Completely unwinnable for Israel
Iranian rocket production rates aren't particularly amazing. Tehran's deterrence came from the size of their stockpile, and the fact that they could fire on Israel from four directions (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis and Iran proper).
> Iran doesn't need air superiority to fire rockets
Where did you get this?
Iran's MRBMs are mostly liquid fuelled [1] and stored in fortified bunkers (like V2s were). This leaves them highly vulnerable during fuelling (same as V2s). With air supremacy one can take out the missiles on the pad. (Which, due to the aforementioned fortification requirements, are predictably placed.) This is one reason Iran's missile firing rate collapsed during the war [2]--Israeli intelligence combined with targeted (land-origin, it seems) strikes took out their launchers.
Iran also has a fleet of solid-fuelled missiles which can be launched on short notice, but these are also less accurate, have to carry smaller payloads and more cheaply intercepted.
Moreover, in a war of attrition (which we did not reach, both sides were burning stockpiles) production reigns supreme. You need at least air parity to fire missiles. You need a favourable air situation to run fixed factories.
[1] https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-ba...
[2] https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Iranian-Ballist...
Russia wasn't supposed to be economically capable of a war this long and yet here we are. And that's a war of choice. If Iran is being attacked, they have no choices. People will find a way to make missiles underground if they have to.
And that's all before we get into political and psychological factors. How long does Netanyahu stay in power if Tel Aviv is hit every day?
(I have to note, USA vs Iran and Israel vs Iran are very different economic comparisons. It would be impossible for Israel to sustain 24/7 suppression over a country Iran's size but maybe with enough American funding its more feasible.)
iran doesnt make israel's choices, so chances are israel is gonna attack either way for israel's own internal politics
You're referring to strategic depth. Iran has lots of it. Israel does not. Countering that, however, is power projection capability. Israel has a lot of this, through its air force and allies. Iran was thought to have a lot of it, through its proxies, but that failed.
Without its proxies, Iran's fire on Israel has to originate from its own territory. That means trading missile range against the protection offered by its strategic depth from Israeli counter-battery fire. Hence why Iran's launchers were somewhat distributed across its territory. But! If Israel has air supremacy, that strategic depth changes from a risk to a logistical cost. If Israeli jets can freely access Iranian air space, that extra distance Iran's central and eastern launchers have to fly don't trade against any defensive upside--they're still going to be blown up shortly after a pad is revealed. They just have to burn more fuel to get the same payload to the same place.
> Russia wasn't supposed to be economically capable of a war this long
There were a variety of estimates. Most of them assumed Russia's economy would crumble under sanctions and so Moscow would lose the will to fight. I don't believe any showed Russia would lose the ability.
> If Iran is being attacked, they have no choices. People will find a way to make missiles underground if they have to
Rockets, sure. Missiles? No. The Shahab-3 reaches altitudes of 400 km [1]. That's where the ISS orbits [2].
> How long does Netanyahu stay in power if Tel Aviv is hit every day?
How long does Putin stay in power if Ukraine keeps dismantling Russia's energy infrastructure? The sad truth is war-time leaders tend to be deposed after unpopular wars, not during them.
> It would be impossible for Israel to sustain 24/7 suppression over a country Iran's size
Again, they don't need to. They just need to destroy the launchers.
It's estimated Iran went from 350 to 100 launchers in the war. Once you've levelled the launchers, you're defending against unguided rockets (which everyone in between will try to pot) and drones (which are cheaper and easier to destroy and cause less damage).
> would be impossible for Israel to sustain 24/7 suppression over a country Iran's size but maybe with enough American funding its more feasible
Israel's economy is twice the size of Irans's [3][4]. Its smaller territory means it can concentrate air defences. And with 10x fewer mouths to feed, it can devote more of that economy to its war machine in a spurt.
Iran-Israel is super interesting because they don't share a border, and they sort of min-maxed their militaries and economies in very different ways. If Iran had maintained its proxies, I think your original analysis stands. Without them, when it can only fire from one direction and from far away, all while Israel can scoot up close and right on top of it, many of its advantages turn into liabilities.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahab-3
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station
I think you're overindexing on a prepared sneak attack with maximum ops velocity from Israel. They threw the best punch they had and it.. disrupted Iran. Didn't knock them out.
Longer term, Israel has 260 fighter-bombers and Iran is huge. Allied analysts after WW2 generally concluded that strategic bombing didn't really move the needle on German war production, and that was with 10s of thousands of bombers, although admittedly a lot less precision. Any long, flat building in Iran's gigantic, mountainous country could be building missiles. And new launcher locations won't be plotted out ahead of time for a high-tempo 72 hour operation, they'll be coming up continuously over the long haul. They don't need to be hypersonic once interceptors are exhausted.
How's Israel going to sustain that long term, especially if they take any amount of ongoing civilian losses at all? It stops being an abstract conversation about collateral damage to civilians pretty quickly once it's happening to them. 10/1 ratio is nowhere near good enough for the polity there.
By the end of the war Iran was using domestic surveillance drones to direct artillery, and was even experimenting with the first attack drones by fitting RPGs on their larger surveillance UAVs, had reverse engineered and started domestically producing TOW missiles, had started producing the Shahab-1 ballistic missile (a Scud clone), Silkworm-clone radar-guided antiship cruise missiles, etc..., all the while their air force was down to less than 100 hundred aircraft in various degrees of disrepair and with very few advanced munitions remaining.
The war ultimately ended in a stalemate, even after the US intervened in Praying Mantis.
This is a terrible analogy. Iran and Iraq share a land border. That makes armies relevant in a way they are not to Israel-Iran.
Long term, no clue. The best strategy would be a system of regional alliances, but they've screwed that pooch with Gaza. Second best is setting red lines for Iranian missile production and stockpiles and intervening when those thresholds are breached.
What right does Israel have to govern Iran's self defense capabilities? Iran's been attacked unprovoked by USA/Israel several times in the last 6-7 years, they're not the ones starting shooting wars.
Iran's supply chain is already fully domestic thanks to sanctions. Repeated strikes on that supply chain will only serve to harden it.
> It's estimated Iran went from 350 to 100 launchers in the war. Once you've levelled the launchers, you're defending against unguided rockets (which everyone in between will try to pot) and drones (which are cheaper and easier to destroy and cause less damage).
That's possible, although no one actually knows how many TELs Iran has, and no one knows how many have been destroyed : Israeli evidence to that effect has been very very slim. Iran's TELs are essentially a pneumatic piston and a FCS (read: Beidou GNSS receiver) bolted onto a domestically-designed 8x8 or 10x10 platform. Iran has far, far more than 400 8x8/10x10 military trucks, so it's essentially impossible to know how many of those they can or have configured as a TEL at any given moment, especially since those conversions are easily done in undergound facilities.
So the "they just need to destroy the launchers" theory is very thin, on the edge of wishcasting. The launchers being domestically produced and similar/lesser in cost to the missiles they fire suggest that even if it does work once, it's not a viable long term strategy.
Iran has a very large automotive industry - they produce over 1 million cars per year. If the main strategic hit was to destroy 200 trucks made in a country that cranks out 1 000 000 cars, I'm going to very skeptical about claims of neutering them.
You may be confusing the guidance mechanisms of early ballistic missiles, which relied entirely on on-board inertial guidance. These missiles therefore needed quite precise initial guidance and an expensive TEL with a myriad of expensive sensors in order to calibrate themselves. Modern ballistic missiles don't work like that : they have non-inertial GNSS guidance (and for the most sophisticated, some kind of active or optical guidance system in the mid course and terminal phase) to complement inertial guidance. That means that the TEL just needs to communicate an initial position, so nothing much more complicated than a GNSS receiver is needed, and to the extent that this is incorrect, the missile can correct itself.
> Rockets, sure. Missiles? No. The Shahab-3 reaches altitudes of 400 km [1]. That's where the ISS orbits [2].
What does that have to do with anything? The Shahab-3 missile has a small fraction of the dV necessary to reach orbit, and is therefore much smaller than the kind of rocket you need for that. We already know that they are stored in large numbers underground, so what's the bottleneck that prevents underground production?
In fact, in Masyaf, Syria, Iran placed the planetary mixers which are the most sensitive and expensive component underground. There is no clear reason why they wouldn't have done so at home.
The rest of the production of solid-fueled missiles is bottlenecked by casting pits. Iran has placed mant of these above ground - obviously we can't know if or how many they have placed underground, but they seem to have largely resisted Israeli airstrikes - they are not a sensitive target. See : https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220847/guest-post-a... for an independent account of Iranian MRBM-scale solid fueled rocket motor production. The only easy target are the planetary mixers - Israel has claimed to have targeted them, but in Masyaf, Syria, they failed to destroy them using airstrikes and had to resort to a commando attack on the underground facility, so that theory is thin as well.
> Its smaller territory means it can concentrate air defences.
That's right, which is why Israel uses weapons designed to evade air defenses and exploit gaps, while Iran uses weapons that simply exhaust interceptors. The former is easier to exploit from the get go, but the latter fails catastrophically once the breaking point arrives.
> And with 10x fewer mouths to feed, it can devote more of that economy to its war machine in a spurt.
Yes, but Iran doesn't feed it's citizens in US dollars (at least not anymore), it feeds them using a PPP-adjusted basket of goods. And similarly while Israel's interceptors are in large part manufactured in the USA and paid for in USD, Iran's missiles are almost entirely manufactured domestically, with workers paid in a much cheaper basket of goods. In terms of exchaning interceptors and ballistic missiles, Iran is ahead.
The main issue Iran has is that their missiles are mostly not accurate enough to degrade Israeli force projection, and that while missile production is very high, it hasn't been for a long time and thus stockpiles are not great. That's a problem that has an expiration date, and that's why Israel attacked Iran, because the window is closing. Iran only very recently demonstrated the kind of technology that is needed to execute precision strikes using MRBMs: the first missile design they claim is able to do so is the Qassem Basir, which only entered service this year. If that works and if they can scale production, the advantage Israel has in being very concentrated and densely protected turns into a liability - Iran then has the ability to directly attack Israeli BMD radars, and then directly attack airbases. It's a serious threat, and that's exactly why the Israelis decided that they needed to attack.
Granted. We're still talking about a 3x difference, advantage to Iran, in the face of a lot more territory to defend, population to manage and a technical deficit.
> if the main strategic hit was to destroy 200 trucks
MRBM launchers are not trucks.
> You may be confusing the guidance mechanisms of early ballistic missiles
Guided vs unguided refers to the ability to course correct en route. An unguided missile is a lobber rocket. A guided missile has reaction controls onboard.
> What does that have to do with anything?
That it's a complicated machine you can't whip up in a garagd.
> while Iran uses weapons that simply exhaust interceptors
A strategy undermined by collapsing launch rates.
> If that works and if they can scale production, the advantage Israel has in being very concentrated and densely protected turns into a liability
Absolutely. I'm not saying Israel is indefinitely invulnerable to Iran. Just that in the last war, it neutered Iran's capacity to hurt it.
It's a piston mounted on top of a utility truck. It's a truck! If a semi-truck with a refrigerated trailer is a truck, then an 8x8 utility truck with a hydraulic piston is also a truck.
> Guided vs unguided refers to the ability to course correct en route. An unguided missile is a lobber rocket. A guided missile has reaction controls onboard.
That's not what I'm referring to. Early ballistic missiles only had inertial guidance, and therefore needed an accurate positional and attitude fix provided by the launcher, which made it expensive and complex. Modern ballistic missiles have absolute guidance mechanisms, so the launcher is now much simpler.
> That it's a complicated machine you can't whip up in a garagd.
Iranian UGFs aren't garages. They are called missile cities for a reason.
> A strategy undermined by collapsing launch rates.
25-35% of ballistic missile impacts on Israel occured on June 22nd. The Iranian capacity to actually hit targets in Israel did not collapse through the 12 day war.
> Absolutely. I'm not saying Israel is indefinitely invulnerable to Iran. Just that in the last war, it neutered Iran's capacity to hurt it.
Iran's ballistic missile strikes were most successful on June 22nd. In the last week of the war, there is plenty of evidence pointing towards Israeli BMD degrading faster than Iran's ability to launch ballistic missiles.
The only way to conclude that Iran's ability to launch was neutered is if you believe that, were the war to continue, Iran's ability to launch missiles would have continued to degrade. The only argument to that effect is that they'd run out of launchers - I find that implausible on the basis of the launchers being simple modifications of extremely plentiful military truck platforms.
after first week or so iran could launch only from bases that were much further away from Israel (way east), because Israeli air control was weaker there
Iranian missiles launchers are pretty cheap, and reportedly quite plentiful - they are relatively simple modifications of domestically produced truck platforms.
The Iranian account for why the strikes slowed down, FWIW, is that it took a significant amount of time to dig out the exits of the missiles bases, not that they ran out of launchers. Given the recycling of footage from launcher destruction and the simplicity of the launchers I personally find that account significantly more plausible.
They didn't run out of launchers. The launchers just emerged from a predictable place with unfuelled rockets. That made them easy to pot from the air.
Since it took at least an hour for a cruise missile to make it's way and around 15 minutes for an ALBM to make it's way, that means that once Israeli drones started being shot down, they were able to dig out the entrances, exit and launch faster than it took for a munition to be delivered.
Of course if Israel had been able to fly manned aircraft deep into Iran and for prolonged periods of time, that would have been impossible, and they would actually have been unable to fire. But that wasn't the case and so they were able to fire, probably limited by the ability to dig out the entrances and synchronize launches between different sites.
Iran maintains the ability to build ballistic missiles in large numbers, greatly depleted Israel-US BMD reserves, continues to build even more reinforced nuclear sites. Neutering those capabilities was the main goal of the 12 day war and by most accounts, that didn't work.
Israel did not manage air superiority over the large majority of Iran, instead the majority of strikes over Iran were done using standoff weapons and drones, many flown from within Iran as an act of sabotage.
If Israel truly managed to get air superiority over Iran, the Iranian regime would have suffered the same fate as Nasrallah. But that didn't happen, because while Israel was able to execute a number of deep strikes, the capability to do so was much closer to Russia's ability over Ukraine than, say, the way the US operated over Iraq. And Iran at the same time was able to execute dozens of deep strikes within Israel, but with much less precision - without a much deeper cut to the Iranian MIC it's only a matter of time before the newer, much more precise missiles are built in sufficient numbers to become a similar threat to the Israeli airforce.
There is no reason why China would ever want to partner with Israel on defense anymore. They tried do in the 2000s, and they found that Israel was so deeply and inextricably dependent on US technology and manufacturing for it's military technology that there was almost nothing worthwhile they could get that wasn't so dependent on the US that the US would veto it. Israel's military sophistication is not endogenous to the extent it would be competitive without the US - it's entirely dependent on an extremely privileged relationship with the MIC that allows Israel to stand on the shoulder of giants and produce weapons that are far more sophisticated than would be possible for any economy of its' size otherwise.
An article came out only today on Haaretz detailing how much of the footage and imagery from Israeli strikes were deepfakes or recycled footage. That's not something you do when you've managed to neuter your opponent.
Iran hasn't been neutralised. It was just reduced to a non-threat during the war. Of course it maintains future capabilities that could be threatening.
> That's not something you do when you've managed to neuter your opponent
Why not? It's an information war.
I wouldn't call 10 ballistic missiles hits in a day a non-threat. If they were accurate that's a significant threat: enough to disable all BMD radars in a day, and over a week to disable airbases.
The most important factor that made them less threatening is the lack of pinpoint accuracy, and that is not something that changed over the course of the war.
> Why not? It's an information war.
Getting caught using fabricated imagery is inevitable within a couple days, so that's not something you'd want to do in an information war if you are looking for long term effect, unless you have to.
The United States Red Cross sets as a floor 1500 calories a day for people in distress. Is the Red Cross trying to starve Americans in distress?
https://emergency.lacity.gov/sites/g/files/wph1791/files/202...
The UN just cut food aid in Kenya for 800,000 refugees from the war in Sudan in half to 588 calories per day, yet the UN says it is willing and able to provide significantly higher amounts of food (and to not do so would be criminal) to the 2 million people of Gaza. Is the UN criminal/genocidal against Kenyan/Sudanese for offering starvation level assistance to one group but significantly more to another? The UN says they are ready and able to provide assistance to one group at the very same time the cut in half/say they can't provide aid that meets the level they say Gaza must receive when it is people in Kenya that need aid. Kenyan war refugees are receiving significantly less per person than that 1400 calorie at 588.
you can ask the same of Hamas, is theirs the policy the populace wants?
Israel does have a robust free speech democracy and you can easily learn what many of the different factions think, and like elections anywhere, you don't know till afterward how it plays out, and voters are always disappointed by the way power is exercised.
That is debated. The IDF censors thousands of articles, both domestic and abroad, every year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Military_Censor
But it became clear that not only did they spend their main efforts in the previous few years planning this massacre, but they had embedded themselves as deeply as possible in every single part of gaza as possible. Their tunnel network is more extensive then the London underground. Their bases are in hospitals and schools. Undeniable facts except to the most cynical and dishonest people out there.
But what dismayed me the most was the response of the average palestinian on the street. Ecstatic celebration, i saw videos of crowds literally shrieking and crying for joy, at the single most shameful crime against humanity that was ever committed in their name.
No other country in the world would do anything different in Israels place. Most would go much further. You can express disgust at their actions from your place where you would never have to confront such barbarity. Hamas planned and created the entire situation you just described and left no other course of action for Israel to take. What else should they have done? Don't tell me some stupid idea like make peace with them and stop the settlements etc. Those are grievences entirely made up of anti israel people and does not address the reality of who hamas and far too many palestinians are.
War is horrible. I don't want it. No one wants it. This one is just and necessary. The world can sit and wait or they can help meaningfully.
If you want to argue explain to me how Israelis and any human being should view and respond to the scenes of joy and celebration they saw on and after Oct 7. Even today there is very little remorse or even regret.
What sort of adaptation are you proposing?
I do agree Israel is taking a hit on the world stage. This is part of the war and Israel has a hard time defending itself against enemies with vast resources. Those enemies are also more than happy to distract and splinter the western nations with this topic. Russia has a better standing in the world with its war of aggression on Ukraine amongst many other problems. Most western countries who were/are happy to abandon Israel would (and have) respond with significantly more force to a similar attack on themselves.
It remains to be seen what are the longer term consequences here. Not just on Israel.
What we have seen throughout this is not criticism. It is hate. It is often directed at Jews, not just at the Israeli government. Not 100% but a large percentage. It's not that Israel's response has no problems - it has many problems. But the discourse on this is not rational and not fact based. The media and the various actors are pushing agenda and ideology. This isn't unique to Israel here, we see this on political issues, a discourse that is tribal, not rational but rather emotional, manipulated by the media (social and otherwise). CNN here is treating Israel basically as it treats Trump and the republicans. CNN is not in the news business, it is in the shaping political opinion business.
Would you say the west's response to ISIL/ISIS chopping the heads off a few westerners, a couple of random terrorist attacks in the west, and burning a Jordanian pilot alive would also be characterized as "extreme actions against a weak opponent"? How did CNN cover that conflict?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_against_the_Islamic_State
- >83k militants killed.
- 10's of thousands civilians killed. (IMO vastly underestimated, one source claims 40k killed just in the battle for Mosul: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mosul_(2016%E2%80%93... )
- millions displaced.
Let in the food. Flood Gaza with food, actually, so it stops being a recruitment tool for militants.
as example, there was a story on Israeli news a couple of months ago, about some NGO that setup a new aid distribution network. One day they got some of their people killed in Gaza and received a phone call demanding payment "or else"
Was it credible? Who made the phone call?
essentially ngo established this summer (july/august) new aid distribution network, I think it was at south with it's own drivers, distribution points, etc. during the time when supposedly was impossible to bring aid in gaza, but in reality it was going in.
"local interests" in gaza didn't like it, as NGO wasn't paying protection fees so they killed some of people who helped ngo in gaza and made threatening calls to person who runs NGO demanding payments or that this person will be harmed and distribution will be stopped.
not sure how it all ended. my guess it was "public" ask from military or security services to get involved in some way
I know of other Bedouins families that have rewards for the heads of other Hamas members.
How do you get food to all of Gaza while there is raging fighting? The biggest problem is in Gaza city where there is intense fighting. The southern areas have a lot more food. How do we flood Gaza city with food? Ceasefire? We had one. Then what?
Let's plan this in more detail. Who is going to distribute the food in Gaza? Who in Gaza has weapons and control? How is the hostage problem resolved? How do we get Hamas to not rule over Gaza any more?
Berlin airdrop and pile it up at the borders from trucks for starters.
> southern areas have a lot more food
But not enough. Start there. Also, if you make food plentiful enough in the south, it will find its way north. The point, again, isn't just to starve the famine. It's also to reduce the value of food as a recruiting tool.
> How is the hostage problem resolved? How do we get Hamas to not rule over Gaza any more?
Not relevant to not starving people!
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/middle-east/gaza-food-starvati...
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/07/24/un-refuses-to-cooper...
It's true that it's objectively hard to get the food from the border into e.g. Gaza city while a war is raging on. Israel has asked all civilians to evict Gaza city (basically for the entire duration of the war). Many people returned to Gaza city during the last ceasefire despite no green light from Israel. There is more food in the south and it's easier to get food into there.
There is an effort to get even more food into the south. For example World Central Kitchen is scaling up their operations there right now (with Israel's support). The GHF effort was also mostly focused on the south.
Air drops can't move in enough food. They're also dangerous.
Yet there are still credible claims of famine in the south.
> Air drops can't move in enough food
This is nonsense. West Berlin had a civilian population of about 2.5mm [1]. Gaza is smaller. Our planes are better. We've solved this problem, but harder, before.
> They're also dangerous
What's the threat model? Initially, you'd literally air drop--no landings. Gaza isn't fielding air-defence systems.
Once you're reduced the desperation, you'd secure a couple airfields and make unsupervised drops. (This is cheaper.) You wouldn't even bother handling distribution. Again, the point is the flood the zone with so much food that it starts to become sort of worthless.
[1] https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/bomb-bl...
This specific article is not "criticism". The headline claims Israeli actions caused famine in Gaza. The title, and the article, completely ignores other actors like the government of Gaza (aka Hamas).
"How Israeli actions caused famine in Gaza, visualized" -> is basically a lie. The truth is that Israeli actions contributed to the food situation in the Gaza strip. The cause is obviously the war. The cause of the war is obviously Hamas. The entire article rests solely on a report by a UN organization. The UN is not unbiased. It is openly anti-Israel.
The reporting is completely one sided. It is not news. It is agenda. CNN's agenda is anti-Israel. There is no mention of the UN leaving food on the border to rot and not deliver it. There is little to no mention of the UN's refusal to cooperate with Israeli initiatives to distribute food (and generally refuse to cooperate with Israel on anything).
At best the authors don't understand the idea that correlation doesn't equal causation. I would say the authors and CNN's goal is simply to attack Israel for political reasons.
I think Israel's decision to block aid around the end of February was stupid and a mistake. It is far from clear that decision is a war crime. Israel claims there was plenty of food in Gaza that was delivered during the ceasefire and ofcourse also claims that Hamas has plenty of food in its tunnels. Egypt also at times contributed to the condition in the Gaza strip by blocking aid and preventing refugees from leaving. The actual responsibility for the well being of Palestinian citizens in Palestinian controlled areas (which Gaza city still is) is on their government. That government has a choice to stop the war, it has a choice to distribute the food it controls to its citizens. Ignoring that in any article basically tells us what we need to know. Israel does have responsibilities under international law but is being held to impossible standards that are not applied to any other country. The media intentionally creates an artificial separation between "Hamas" and "Palestinians" where in fact we are talking about combatants and non-combatants of the same non-state or state-like actor (Gaza). Israel is responsible, to the same degree any other country would be, to take steps to allow non-combatants to leave battle areas and to not target them. Israel has asked all non-combatant population to evict the Northern Gaza strip a long time ago. The food situation is worse in that area. So Israel arguably has done what international law requires it to do with respect to non-combatants. Is Israel perfect? no. Is it worse than most western countries? I don't think so, and there's plenty of comparisons we can make. Can we criticize Israel? Definitely!
In terms of contribution to antisemitism, there is a large number of people who will read the title as "How Jew actions caused famine in Gaza". That is literally the conversation on some social media. Just because you haven't seen that doesn't change it. This means there should be more sensitivity and better accuracy and context.
Being Jewish is also not a religion by the way. It's an ethnicity as well. I'm sure you know this but just to remind others. The Jewish people are also known as Israelites and the word Israel is sometimes used as a synonym for Jewish.
This is the biggest lie of all.
Israel started this war long before October 9, and Israel will never end it.
A Zionist Israel can not allow the Palestinian people to exist. Every member of every government that Israel ever had 100% believed this.
This war is part of Israel's DNA, and the total security Israel demands can never be achieved, so the war can never end.
Until significant portions of the political right in Israel are outlawed, and until the entire Jewish population of Israel undergoes deradicalization, we will keep fighting.
This is exactly the blackpill. I live in a Muslim-majority country. Jews and Muslims have been allies since the start of Islamic history. Yes, there was some hate for Jews 20 years ago, but it has been gradually displaced into Zionist hate.
The recent analogy is Imperial Japan. The Japanese killed, raped, starved our people. But it was specifically the Imperial Japanese, not the citizens. Firebombing citizens didn't make anything better and it only slowed the process of post-war healing. We have great relationships with Germans and Japanese today despite their past. Moving on is an option.
Some of it is because we see the same pattern. Nationalist politics will always say, "Everyone hates you. We are the only ones who will protect you." For the former British territories, it was the playbook.
I do believe the only way to break from this cycle is to break this hold. Internally: don't keep genocidal leaders in power. Externally: avoid all this racist shit that gives fascists their power base.
but that takes a level of humanism, and effort, abusive leaders don’t have and unfortunately people are too brainwashed to see (and lack the knowledge to understand?).
Antisemitism is alive and kicking. Hate to Jews has not been "displaced into Zionist hate". It's just s/Jews/Zionists/ the hate is the same hate. The blood libels are the same blood libels. The stereotypes the same stereotypes.
If you are talking about how Jews have been treated in Muslim countries it ranged between second rate citizens (dhimmi) to outright massacre. Yes, there have been a handful of examples, in a handful of countries, where Jews managed to thrive despite the discrimination but it was the exception that proved the rule.
I would love to see Israel's government gone and the Palestinian government of Hamas gone. I'm not seeing any analogy to Japan.
So the Satmar anti-Zionist Jews are ok? But the other Jews? Also met with love? Do you love the Jews that have opinions that differ than yours on this conflict? Why do Palestinian protests where I live (Canada) target Synagogues, Jewish owned businesses, Jewish neighborhoods?
Do Zionists control the US? The Media? Not Jews... nono. "Zionists".
I'm not necessarily talking about you specifically. But it is a fact that antisemites use this technique and this is being normalized. Why does it matter than you have a token Jewish person in your protest at all? Who cares if someone in your protest is a Satmar Jew or an Iranian Bhaii?
The worst part is, most of that antisemitism comes from zionists. Zealots making posts not unlike yours, frequently accuse me and my kind of being 'self-hating jews' for being insufficiently zionist. It really sucks.
As a side note, please stop repeatedly, unsuccessfully trying to conflate jews with zionists. We are not the same thing, and it is hurtful to hear you insult jews like that. It is somewhat akin to conflating all South Africans with apartheid supporters, or all Germans with nazis, except you are stereotyping based on religion, rather than national origin.
So maybe don't? Next time you see an antisemite saying that, rather than parroting their talking points to others, you can tell them the same thing: zionists and jews aren't the same thing, and many jews are members of the global consensus in opposing the ongoing israeli genocide of Palestinians. Or don't, maybe it won't make a difference, and it's your choice.
In the meantime, please stop repeating hurtful antisemetic tropes by conflating us jews with zionists. We are not the same. Criticism of zionism and the israeli genocide of Palestinians is totally legitimate. Propagating antisemetic language is antisemetic. That means smarmy posts I've seen around saying things to the effect of, 'zionists... you mean jews??? [*wink wink*]'
I simply informed you of the historical precedent; why do you immediately include me in those you say are conflating the two?
If criticism of Israel sounded more like the criticism of America's War on Terror instead of a Kremlin anti-West propaganda manual, then maybe it would be worth thinking about.
Just don't say it. I'm not even asking you for an apology for your hurtful, antisemetic words. Just recognize that your spreading of antisemitic tropes is bad, and please stop. Are you seriously so dead-set on repeating antisemetic tropes that you refuse to do even that?
Remember, the topic isn't bibi's fellow war criminals, it is antisemitism, with you, yes YOU, contributing to it. This is what I meant when I said that most antisemitism I've seen and felt as a jew lately, is coming from zionists.
So, back on topic: Do you have anything to say on the actual points I raised even earlier?:
There's a lot to unpack in the last 1400 years, but basically everyone cherry picks what they want to see.
Medina, the first actual Islamic state, was established on an alliance between the Muslims and Jewish tribes. When the Muslims took Jerusalem, they welcomed the Jewish back. There's a few of these right up until Ottoman times. Dhimmi literally meant "protected person" - they can't be attacked or looted by Muslims and were not conscripted. Alliances aren't necessarily friendships, and a lot of these were built on mutual protection vs a common enemy rather than brotherhood.
Even in recent times, there's common grounds, especially in terms of religion. It's a kind of cousinhood. Notably all kosher food is halal, though not vice versa. In countries with both, it's popular to have a Jewish/Muslim district and Muslims often join Jewish student accommodations.
Of course there's plenty of bad history, but I find that the people who are pro-genocide will bring up massacres by Muslims. The people who advocate for treating Israeli Arabs as second-rate citizens will bring up dhimmis.
In the end, we pick the history we want to repeat.
> Jews and Muslims have been allies since the start of Islamic history.
Only when the Jews were Dhimis - in fact as I understand it the term literally means to protect. But we are not interested in being Dhimis any longer - no more taxes to Muslims, and we want to hold prestigious jobs and own land and participate in government.the state of Israel has not been respectful since day one of it’s inception (violating the defined borders) neither truly wants a two state solution.
this outcome is the product of what escalated from that.
at least you understand the correlation between a figure like Trump and the state of Israel, that’s exactly on point.
it’s ok when one side violates borders and even settles on foreign land but when reactionary action (you’ve helped shape) takes place, you’re now the victim…
EDIT: I'd also challenge you to tell me why these two states weren't created when Egypt ruled over Gaza and Jordan over the West Bank and Jerusalem up till 1967 (the six day war) when Israel took those areas. Where were all those supporters of the two state solution then? Why didn't they recognize the state of Palestine then over those territories that Israel didn't control?
What they're doing doesn't seem to be working, so maybe something else.
This is just armchair military philosophizing, but after the October attack, go ahead and do some big disproportionate response stuff for 30-90 days, then a ceasefire and prisoner exchange (this happened). But if the ceasefire doesn't work out, you can't go back to disproportionate response on the October attack; that doesn't look reasonable. Cat and mouse strikes on leadership until the hostages are released (edit: but not while leaders are gathered for peace negotiations!). You can still do proportionate response for any tit-for-tat kind of attacks in the occupied zone.
A war of occupation is a PR thing. You need to convince outside observers you're occupation is reasonable --- two years of disproportionate response doesn't do that. You also want to convince the occupied people not to support armed resistance; disproportionate response can work for that, but IMHO not over a long period of time; in the short term, it can get people to demand a stop to fighting, but after two years, again IMHO it just breeds more desire to fight.
You also need some sort of plan for after the hostilities end. How do you set the conditions so this is less likely to happen in the future. Really, the best way to have peaceful coexistence between Israel and Palestine as two states is for Israel and Palestine to both be prosperous; Israel needs to help make that happen, because it's in Israel's interests --- even if maybe it doesn't feel like it; a prosperous Palestine will be incentivized to be peaceful because prosperity is tenuous; a destitute Palestine has no need to be peaceful, because it has nothing to lose.
There's a lot of talk about ending Hamas; maybe that would do it, but if Hamas disbands today, you need something to replace the government services they provide. What's the plan for that? What would the interim system look like between now and that; can you enforce the interim system now as a way to push Hamas out?
Alternately, big problems require big solutions. Forcibly return Gaza to Egyptian control, as it was before the Six Day War, and encourage Egypt to deal with Hamas through diplomacy and response to future attacks from within Gaza as if they were from Egypt.
Perhaps return the West Bank to Jordan ... maybe do the return of the West Bank first as a show of 'if y'all give us the hostages, we'll end the occupation' Returning the West Bank is hard, because you've got to figure out what to do with the settlers, which is probably a lot of tricky negotiations over which settlements can be kept with a land swap and which have to be abandoned, so it probably can't be done super fast.
This sounds kind of like the proposed peace plan, no? They’re supposedly going to put an Arab force in charge of Gaza.
So after 90 days we have the bulk of hostages still in Gaza. Hamas in total control of all of Gaza. Hamas doesn't want to exchange all the hostages, we've been there after the first ceasefire (24 November 2023 to 30 November 2023).
Look at Hamas' calculus. Surviving in any shape and form while holding hostages is a clear win. Increasing Israel's isolation is a win. Anything else is mostly a don't care. They have no intention of giving up control in Gaza or in ceasing future hostilities against Israel. They would love nothing more than to go back to the tit for tat where they make and fire rockets and mortars at Israel all day and Israel has some limited retaliation.
Ask Sri Lanka and the Tamil Tigers about whether force works or not. Or the Turkish and the Kurds. Or anyone who thought they could go against China. That's not to say that should be the default or the preferred solution, but more force works in situations where you have the power and the other side won't yield.
There is a somewhat stupid/joke saying in Hebrew. What doesn't work with force will work with more force. That's sort of where Israel is right now. Many Israelis don't think this can solve the problem but the government does. I think pretty much everyone would prefer a better/easier way out of this that includes security guarantees and the release of the hostages. There just doesn't seem to be one. It's a problem when fighting an enemy where their loss is their win. There's no leverage. Though in theory Hezbollah was also like that, until it surrendered. The difference in Lebanon/Hezbollah is no hostages and less mix of combatants and civilians.
After the October 7 attacks it was critical that Israel re-establish deterrence, not doing so would be inviting more attacks.
> Hamas successfully baited Israel into a disproportionate response that killed tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, which played directly into the dynamics of guerrilla warfare where a strong state's extreme actions against a weak opponent undermine its legitimacy.
It turns out a disproportionate response is a rather effective strategy at deterring ones enemies from attacking, it worked quite well with Hezbollah which was considered by Israel to be a much more serious threat to Israel than Hamas was.
> Walking into such a trap tends to be a real world-historical blunder for any nation.
What other option did they have realistically? The middle east isn't a region where pacifism tends to work out well.
> Yet, rather than adapting, Israel's network doubled down with censorship campaigns, crackdowns on protests, and weaponizing "anti-semitism" accusations to silence critics -- actions that have all backfired. Now international support is collapsing, the EU is pushing sanctions, and the US is slowly distancing itself. Israel's best option right now is to end the war as quickly as possible, and devote all of its efforts to repairing damaged relationships and mitigating the war's effects, before isolation accelerates to the level of sanctions similar to those imposed on South Africa.
Keep in mind that statements politicians make publicly about Israel are often rather different from what they really think, politicians placating various activist groups for domestic political reasons doesn't often translate into meaningful adverse actions against Israel. The Israeli stock market is at all time highs right now despite everything that has happened.
I agree Israel has been way too slow at ending the war, their reluctance to take actions to finish off Hamas(or force their capitulation/surrender) and end the war is not helping either the Palestinian people or Israelis.
> I'll also note that it's interesting how all sides seem to have lost. Hamas lost the shooting war, the people of Gaza have lost lives and livelihoods which may take more than a decade to rebuild, and Israel lost the information/media war so damn badly that it may genuinely not recover from this.
Israel losing the media war was probably somewhat inevitable, the extreme disparity between worldwide Muslim population sizes and Jewish population sizes being a big factor, but that isn't really an entirely new issue either.
Despite all this Israel has largely re-established military deterrence in the Middle East and is on a path to normalize relations with countries like Saudi Arabia once Hamas is either forced to surrender or degraded enough that they lose their ability to govern Gaza.
Sure. They did that when they killed Sinwar. After that, they could have just continued to Mossad individual leaders in Hamas.
> Israel losing the media war was probably somewhat inevitable, the extreme disparity between worldwide Muslim population sizes and Jewish population sizes being a big factor
Not relevant to America.
Killing one enemy leader is insufficient to re-establish deterrence, with how severe the October 7 attacks were I don't think Israel can possibly accept any outcome that doesn't effectively remove Hamas from power in Gaza.
> Not relevant to America.
It still has some effect in America, but less so than other parts of the world.
They'd killed more than one at that point. Like, Hezbollah got the message pretty clearly.
However Hamas has yet to capitulate/surrender, Israel basically has no choice but to finish Hamas off if they won't surrender, not doing so would significantly weaken their deterrence capabilities and allow Hamas to rebuild. There are potential consequences to ceasefire agreements where an enemies leadership retains power[0] historically.
> Like, Hezbollah got the message pretty clearly.
They eventually got the message after Israel essentially eliminated the entirety of their leadership chart multiple levels deep and crushed Hezbollah's will to fight, the ceasefire Hezbollah eventually agreed to was effectively a surrender agreement.
Sure. Doesn't require starving civilians.
> after Israel essentially eliminated the entirety of their leadership chart multiple levels deep
Yeah. Do this.
Sure, and I don't see credible evidence that they are[0]. Just more of the same false narratives pushed by the all too common antisemitic UN officials[1].
[0] https://unwatch.org/hillel-neuer-on-sky-news-fabricated-u-n-...
[1] https://unwatch.org/legal-analysis-of-un-food-rapporteur-mic...
An NGO "Agence France-Presse has described...as 'a lobby group with strong ties to Israel'" [1] is not a credible source for disputing two separate groups at the UN, the IPF and--at this point--more than a few independent investigations.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UN_Watch#cite_note-GazaAFP-5
This doesn't make the information they are putting out false, the UN bias against Israel is well documented by many sources.
It makes it unreliable. If you’re claiming the IPC is an unreliable source, you need a reliable source to back you up on that. (And neither article actually cites any data that would undermine the IPC’s case.)
I’m genuinely open to being convinced. Another comment raised the issue of insufficient CDRs for IPC 5 status, which may or may not be relevant. But these UN Watch interviews are rally the base stuff, not argument.
Specifically pages 10-14 for an intermediate summary, or pages 29-30 for a shorter one, with chapter 1 providing the full details.
Curious to hear your thoughts if any
I think the most detailed rebuttal to the recent IPC claims is this one[0] backed by the COGAT[1] published aid data. There are other responses to prior IPC reports that go into more methodological details[2] as well. The impression I get overall is that the IPC is largely just cherry picking incomplete data to create a false narrative[3]. IPC forecasts also basically never end up being accurate historically either.
[0] https://govextra.gov.il/media/orumgksl/politics-disguised-as...
[1] https://gaza-aid-data.gov.il/main/#AidData
[2] https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/generalpage/transparency-and-m...
[3] https://govextra.gov.il/media/sftjdsg2/cogat-humanitarian-ef...
This isn't necessary! Plenty of peoples have overcome cycles of revenge. There isn't something inherent to Israelis and Gazans that requires they metabolise past trauma into future violence.
Israel, the stronger entity, should've been the one to abstain first and attempt to understand and forgive, instead they kept building illegal settlements and driving more and more people out there homes. Israel made sure the embers stayed hot, and I can't think of any reason for that aside from hoping those hot embers produce a flame that justifies genocide and completely eradicating the Palestinian population.
The current leaders have largely been hell-bent on destroying Israel already...
There is no shortage of articles on the internet detailing how Israel is the one responsible for propping up Hamas.
And the current leaders of Iran are the fruits of what the USA/CIA sowed by toppling a popular democracy and replacing it with a despotic monarchy.
When have Palestinians had leaders that have been truly interested in peace?
> There is no shortage of articles on the internet detailing how Israel is the one responsible for propping up Hamas.
There's a lot more nuance to this issue as allowing funds to be transferred by Qatar was to some degree an attempt at improving the lives of Palestinians in Gaza.
> And the current leaders of Iran are the fruits of what the USA/CIA sowed by toppling a popular democracy and replacing it with a despotic monarchy.
I think you're underplaying the impact of radical Islam here.
If Israel would like to give Gaza full sovereignty, or Palestinians born inside the occupied territories the right to vote in the federal systems that determine their law enforcement environment, we can talk about deterrence and law enforcement respectively.
Israel has unilateral control of who it recognizes as its citizens, and what sovereign states it recognizes. No complaint about current or past bad behavior by the Palestinians excuses its failure to grant sovereignty or voting rights to people under its territorial control.
It's not just Palestinians they needed to deter, by the way most Israelis were also born within the borders as well. Israel has in the past made efforts to give more sovereignty to Palestinians but those efforts have largely backfired. I think initial efforts really need to focus on de-radicalization of Palestinians first before there's any reasonable chance another attempt at giving them more sovereignty will be more successful.
> If Israel would like to give Gaza full sovereignty, or Palestinians born inside the occupied territories the right to vote in the federal systems that determine their law enforcement environment, we can talk about deterrence and law enforcement respectively.
They already tried that[0], it didn't work out and arguably made the situation worse as they voted for Hamas[1] which quite openly advocates for the destruction of Israel.
> Israel has unilateral control of who it recognizes as its citizens, and what sovereign states it recognizes. No complaint about current or past bad behavior by the Palestinians excuses its failure to grant sovereignty or voting rights to people under its territorial control.
Are you seriously suggesting Israel can just give citizenship/voting rights to all Palestinians and make a group that largely wants their destruction a voting majority? There's a reason this will basically never happen, and that reason is that it would effectively be suicidal for Israelis. This sort of one-state solution is completely unrealistic. Some variation of a two-state solution is probably the most realistic, but I think we're a long way off from that being viable due to a lack of Palestinian desire for peaceful coexistence.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_disengagement_from_the...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_e...
Can you think of any reason why Palestinians might feel this way? Does anything come to mind?
There are multiple factors, radicalization has long been a major issue in Palestinian schools[0].
[0] https://unwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Schools-in-th...
An occupation is not apartheid.
> Give them voting rights
Israel tried that...Palestinians straight up voted for Hamas terrorists[0] who promptly eliminated voting rights(although based on opinion polling Hamas would likely be elected again).
> give them a state
Israel tried moving towards that in Gaza[1], it backfired spectacularly leading to the current conflict.
Any other ideas on how to move towards peaceful coexistence? I think the first step is some sort of de-radicalization program, but not sure how one would implement that.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_e...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_disengagement_from_the...
Apartheid by definition means race based discrimination, which is different from citizenship based discrimination(which basically all countries have to various degrees).
Apartheid.
You're obviously referring to a Israeli citizenship law[0] here. Your claim that it has nothing to do with citizenship makes no sense.
The problem is that the PA, who rules the West Bank are extremely corrupt, and Hamas is committed to Israel's destruction. Neither side has been actually performing all the functions of state, UNRWA has been doing that.
What part of that statement did I misunderstand? Israel's stated policy is this: No State for the Palestinians, no Civil Rights. This is clear.
The PA leaders have stated that the German genocide of Jews never occurred.
And Egyptian, Jordanian, Palestinian, Libyan, and Iraqi leaders have all stated the the idea of a Palestinian People was invented in the 1960s. No joke.
If you want to start pulling out quotes to judge merit in the Middle East, there's enough material to hang anybody.
Should they be deradicalised?
> Discussing this topic with you is impossible because you have committed to spreading Israeli state propaganda regardless of what the actual facts of the situation are.
If I have stated something infactual, point it out. I can back up every fact that I've stated. > If you are unmoved by the children being savagely blown apart by Israeli rockets because you equate that with some Arab states bad-mouthing Israel
You are correct that I don't use emotional strategy in my arguments, nor am I swayed by emotional arguments. I stick to facts. And if you did too, you would recognize that one third of the Hamas rockets fall back into the Gaza strip and kill Palestinians as well. If you were to read the Palestinian Telegram channels like I read, you would have seen the recent little girl being destroyed by an IED that was placed to attack Israeli soldiers. The Muslim culture considers all killed to be martyrs, no matter whose hand killed them. The Western media treating this as if Israel killed every martyr is disingenuous. If you really cared about Palestinian lives, you would recognize that Hamas is also a major factor in killing Palestinians today, and that Hamas could end this entire war by returning the hostages any minute.> then I fear nothing will ever convince you that Palestinians are human.
How many Palestines in Palestine have you talked to in the recent past? I talk with them almost weekly: face to face, and online. In English, in Arabic, and in Hebrew, in their own towns. You'll see in my past posts that I quote them often, both in defence and in opposition to the state of Israel, and both in defence and in opposition to the Palestinian cause.
> Have a good day and if you have kids, give them a hug and be glad they don't live in Gaza.
Thank you, I hug my children and like you said, I am glad that they don't live in the Gaza strip.First problem: not Israel's to give.
> The problem is that the PA, who rules the West Bank are extremely corrupt, and Hamas is committed to Israel's destruction.
The Ministry of Strategic Affairs couldn't have put it better...
> First problem: not Israel's to give.
Why not? It was part of Mandatory Palestine, lost to Jordanian occupation in the war for independence, and in 1967 recovered by Israeli forces in the same manner that Jordanian forces took it in the previous war. It had a Jewish population for the past 3,000 years, the only exception being the 19 years that the Jordanians held it because the Jordanians ethnically cleansed the area upon conquering it. At what point in this timeline do the Israelis lose claim to the area, or what have I misrepresented in the timeline?Israel is the only country that says: do not separate and create your own state, but at the same time if you stay here, we will NOT give you civil rights.
A military occupation is not an apartheid, apartheid is race based discrimination, the occupation here is citizenship based discrimination(which basically all countries have in various forms). I'm not really sure what the best solution here is, but it's probably going to need to involve some serious de-radicalization on the part of the Palestinian people and then some form of a two-state solution.
> Israel is the only country that says: do not separate and create your own state, but at the same time if you stay here, we will NOT give you civil rights.
They tried that approach already with Gaza, it backfired massively. It's pretty obvious giving the people who elected terrorists(and based on Palestinian opinion polling they would likely elect Hamas again) the right to vote in Israeli elections isn't going to lead to a peaceful coexistence.
These are direct, unambiguous statements from the Prime Minister and all members of the cabinet. They have said that the Palestinians will NEVER get a state.
So what are you saying then about Israel wanting a two state solution? They have said there will be no state, and they have said they will not give civil rights.
This is apartheid.
That's not apartheid, apartheid means race based discrimination which is simply not an accurate characterization of what is going on here.
> These are direct, unambiguous statements from the Prime Minister and all members of the cabinet. They have said that the Palestinians will NEVER get a state.
Israel isn't a dictatorship and these things can change over time, I'm certainly no fan of Netanyahu in general, right now there is very little support for a two state solution amongst Israelis because they largely don't believe the Palestinians currently have a desire to live in peace with Israeli Jews. Unfortunately they appear to be correct for the time being but if those viewpoints were to change on the Palestinian side I would expect Israeli opinions to change as well. I'm just not sure how you de-radicalize a population like the Palestinians.
> So what are you saying then about Israel wanting a two state solution? They have said there will be no state, and they have said they will not give civil rights.
My point is that Israelis in the past have supported a two state solution, obviously there is currently a war going on right now so a two state solution is not going to happen any time soon.
> This is apartheid.
That's still not apartheid, it's an occupation, there's a difference.
The Israeli PM has said: There will never be a Palestinian state. If you plan to eternally occupy and dominate a people, what is the difference to Apartheid?
Jews are not allowed to live in Palestine controlled territories at all(i.e. Gaza and West Bank areas A/B). This still wouldn't be race based discrimination however. Apartheid is a form of discrimination among citizens, immigration law is a somewhat separate issue. Many countries take factors into account when it comes to immigration laws that wouldn't be applied with regards to those who are already citizens. You don't see those cases of immigration law preferences being called Apartheid in general.
> The Israeli PM has said: There will never be a Palestinian state.
Israel has elections and things can change.
> If you plan to eternally occupy and dominate a people, what is the difference to Apartheid?
That's still not race based discrimination so not Apartheid.
Indeed, Israel is a democracy, and things have in fact changed over time. These changes in Israeli public opinion have been based largely on the actions of the Palestinians.
There was optimism about peace in 2007, after the withdrawal from Gaza: 70% of Israelis supported the two-state solution. After the Hamas massacres in 2023, there was 70% opposition to the two-state solution.
Palestinians under Israeli occupation generally have no pathway to Israeli citizenship, with the exception of those in East Jerusalem, which is occupied under international law but is considered part of Israel by Israel; in the West Bank there is a process to apply for Israeli citizenship, but only a small percentage of Palestinians in East Jerusalem can become citizens every year (I believe I read it was <5% of those who applied).
People who are not Palestinian, anywhere in the world, can convert to Judaism and make Aliyah. This pathway is denied to Palestinians, especially those under occupation.
So I don't know how you can claim this is not race based discrimination.
> It's pretty obvious giving the people who elected terrorists
8% or fewer of the people in Gaza today actually voted for Hamas. Most of them were not even born at the time of the last election, and combined with those who were under 18 at the last election and those who voted for other parties, 92% of people alive in Gaza today had no part in Hamas coming to power.
There were various push and pull factors involved, it's not entirely accurate to say they were all forcibly expelled(there were many that were not expelled as well).
> There were no Israeli citizens before it was formed, this was purely racial discrimination.
Palestinians that remained were given Israeli citizenship however.
> only a small percentage of Palestinians in East Jerusalem can become citizens every year (I believe I read it was <5% of those who applied).
It's around 5% that have Israeli citizenship I think, about a third that apply have been approved with the remaining being rejected or postponed looks like. The majority do not apply for Israeli citizenship for various reasons.[0]
> People who are not Palestinian, anywhere in the world, can convert to Judaism and make Aliyah. This pathway is denied to Palestinians, especially those under occupation.
There being no Jews allowed to live in Palestinian controlled territories(i.e. Gaza and West Bank areas A/B) may make converting a bit uncommon/difficult(converting in general is rather difficult AFAIU), but I don't think there's any outright prohibition on accepting Palestinian conversions for the purposes of citizenship(even though in practice it may be extremely rare).
> So I don't know how you can claim this is not race based discrimination.
I'm not claiming there's no race based discrimination when it comes to Israels immigration policy. Apartheid would be considered racial discrimination between those that are already citizens however, which is a different issue. Many countries have immigration laws that have various forms of racial discrimination and you don't normally see those cases described as apartheid either. I am not a citizen of the country I was born in due to these sort of policies.
> 8% or fewer of the people in Gaza today actually voted for Hamas. Most of them were not even born at the time of the last election, and combined with those who were under 18 at the last election and those who voted for other parties, 92% of people alive in Gaza today had no part in Hamas coming to power.
That may be true but keep in mind Palestinian opinion polling does indicate Hamas would still likely win elections if they were in fact held today.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Jerusalem#Residency_and_c...
I guess by doing what Hamas does[0]?
> I’m not sure this has anything to do with Muslim vs Jewish population sizes.
Mostly it's just an issue of Muslims being largely supportive of the Palestinian cause for religious reasons and having much larger populations.
No, I'm not saying that, I'm saying that the claims of starvation are simply not accurate.[0] They also tend to be pushed by antisemitic individuals[1].
[0] https://unwatch.org/hillel-neuer-on-sky-news-fabricated-u-n-...
[1] https://unwatch.org/legal-analysis-of-un-food-rapporteur-mic...
I'm saying there are varying degrees of food insecurity but not to the levels one would typically call famine/starvation. I'm saying there is sufficient food availability to prevent starvation/famine, I'm not sure I would neccesarially characterize that as being the same thing as there being "plenty to eat" however.
Citizens in the Gulf feel very differently on a large number of issues than their leaders.
Yeah, this is a common pattern, in general most Muslim counties have leadership which is far more moderate than their populations overall, with Iran being a notable exception.
A government that can kick down the door of the house you were born in has a duty to give you voting rights.
(And if your ethnic group is denied voting rights, you have a basic duty to your fellow man to raise hell until you get those rights, because arbitrary starvation is always on the table for your children until you get them.)
Its also a bit unclear what you mean by "unambiguously under Israeli control" since Palestinians in occupied palestinian territories aren't unambigiously under Israeli control, they had little control over the inside of Gaza until recently, and have some power in the west bank that is shared with the PA. Neither is "unambiguous control". The only group unambigiously under their control are the Palestinians inside Israel proper who as far as i understand do have full voting rights.
If you think military presence should equal voting rights, than i think that would imply that Iraq should be able to vote in US presedential elections.
There are troops there, The troops are not present with the consent of the local governing powers, the area has not been annexed (has not been integrated into normal civil law of the country with the troops)*.
That is a textbook definition of what an occupation is.
* except for East Jerusalem, which would normally be considered annexed, but the UNSC has decided (with the binding force of international law) that it is de jure occupied. However Palestinians in east Juruselum can apply for citizenship and get voting rights.
Are the governing powers legitimate? Hamas banned elections after they won the 2006 election. Why should they be considered any more of a governing powers than Israel? Especially when literally the entire broader region was historically Jewish, long before the modern state of Israel, long before Islamic Arabs (now calling themselves Palestinian) were in the area?
What I see is that the Islamic Arabs in Israel are living peacefully and are integrated into the “normal civil law”. But the residents of Gaza have been pro terrorism - which is why they voted for Hamas on a charter of committing genocide against all other beliefs.
The closest comparison would be domestic counter-terrorism, i.e. if one assumes Gaza is part of Israel. (Which, de facto, it is.)
Much of it just comes down to drawing a line in the sand at roughly the start of when the United Nations started, and saying this is what the borders are and no one is allowed to change them by force (one of the conditions of joining the UN is to give up the right to acquire territory by force). So from that view, it was egyptian and jordan territory who in turn, supported by the UN, gave it to the palestinian people as respresented by the PA. In a certain way that's pretty arbitrary but i guess its sort of an, it is what it is, sort of thing.
The last election was in January 2006 and to vote you had to be 18+. That means anyone now alive who voted for Hamas has to be over 37. That's less than 20% of of the Gaza population. Furthermore, Hamas got a plurality in the 40-45% range, not a majority.
That means it is very likely that under 10% of people who lived in Gaza at the start of the current war voted for Hamas. Probably closer to 7% because the turnout in 2006 was around 80%.
If there was merit to the claim that Jews building houses in the West Bank is illegal, they would have stated which law is being transgressed.
It's a bad faith way to approach this argument, so asking logical questions won't make a difference and will tire you out. That's the core strategy behind that behaviour.
Its not exactly a crazy claim. The UN is a political entity, its not above the influence of geopolitics. The former secretary general of the UN, Ban ki moon at one point (quite a while ago now) said that "Decades of political maneuvering have created a disproportionate number of resolutions, reports and committees against Israel".
Abba Eban Sometime between 1967 and 1975
Or would it just be so obviously illegal to adults?
First, the easy one. The only exclusive roads are exclusive to Palestinians. There are no Jew-only roads, despite our enemies saying it again and again.
Second, the other easy one. Your question is predicated on the assumption that those building houses, towns, and farms are doing so against the will of the body which administrates the territory. Jews in the West Bank build in Area C - other than a tiny extremist minority whose structures are then wiped away by the Israeli authorities. I'm certain if you're partaking in this conversation then you are familiar enough with the administrative divisions of the West Bank to know that Area C was designated by agreement with the Palestinian Authority for Israeli civil development.
There's two ways you could counter my argument - I'm interested to see which one you choose! The Shabbat is coming in soon, so I'll answer you on Sunday or Monday. Shabbat Shalom.
True, there are Israeli-only roads: https://www.btselem.org/publications/summaries/200408_forbid...
Those roads link Areas C. Either you know what that means so I don't need to explain it, or you don't know enough about the agreements between the PA and the state of Israel to discuss this. Just in case you are in the later camp, as I stated, there are Palestinian-only roads in Areas A. Those are found throughout the West Bank, everywhere. Only in a single place exists the Israeli-only road. So the argument about "Jew-only roads" is not only a lie, it is an inversion of true state of affairs.
the americans paid to build it, but its a canadian road going through canadian territory and its canada who decides who drives on it, and thats not by citizenship but by licence. people with recognized licences can drive on it.
* United Nations Security Council Resolution 2334 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Counci...
It demands that Israel stop such activity and fulfill its obligations as an occupying power under the Fourth Geneva Convention. These settlements are in violation of Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, and in breach of international declarations.
That the resolution did not include any sanction or coercive measure and was adopted under the non-binding Chapter VI of the United Nations Charter is simply a matter of real politik dealing with Genocide, and is irrelevant to the overall judgement.
* The International Court of Justice
Israel sleigh-of-hand in designating "occupied" territories as "disputed" by virtue of the fact that "there were no established sovereigns in the West Bank or Gaza Strip prior to the Six Day War" was roundly rejected in the International Court of Justice over 20 years ago
//The Court notes that, according to the first paragraph of Article 2 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, when two conditions are fulfilled, namely that there exists an armed conflict (whether or not a state of war has been recognized), and that the conflict has arisen between two contracting parties, then the Convention applies, in particular, in any territory occupied in the course of the conflict by one of the contracting parties.//
> United Nations Security Council Resolution 2334
I'll address only the first page of that document, it should be enough.> Guided by the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, and reaffirming, inter alia, the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by force,
This is the most nuanced line of the document, as Jordan attacked Israel. Up until about two years ago, even Arabs (Gazans and West Bankers) would clearly state that Egypt started the war - that narrative is now that Israel started the war with Egypt. Let's settle on it being in dispute - if you're familiar with the events then we could argue either way. If you're not familiar with the events, then I'll win that part based on causus belli. In either case, Jordan attempted to acquire territory by invading Israel. Israel won on the Jordanian front, but it was the Jordanians who were fighting to acquire territory.
If you consider that a weak argument, then consider also that the internationally recognized borders of the state of Israel were the borders of Mandatory Palestine by principal of Uti possidetis juris. This was justification for cross-border raids for decades - both before and after the 1967 war. The Israeli-Jordanian frontier was a cease-fire line, not an international border. Thus, the world did not recognize the Jordanian occupation of the West Bank as legal - only Iraq did (the kings of Jordan and Iraq were brothers). Thus, Israel did not "acquire territory" on the Jordanian front, rather they recovered the occupied West Bank (occupied by Jordan). OK, actually, Israel did actually acquire some territory on the east side of the river. We left that area in I think 1994 or so when we made peace with Jordan.
> Reaffirming the obligation of Israel, the occupying Power, to abide scrupulously by its legal obligations and responsibilities under the Fourth Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, of 12 August 1949, and recalling the advisory opinion rendered on 9 July 2004 by the International Court of Justice,
Here is where legitimate condemnation of Israel can begin. Israel did not annex the territory it recovered. The reasons is quite clear - despite repeated cries to the contrary, Israel does generally not expel populations. Yes, there were expulsions, I'm not blind to that. But you are aware that the Israeli side states that the Arabs who left Israel in 1948 did so at the beheast of Arab politicians requets - and there is ample evidence of this. Yet, many didn't leave and Israel became 20% Arab. Contrast with the West Bank, which Jordan ethnically cleansed of Jews after the 1948 war. Yet you hear no cries about that ethnic cleansing - only cries when Jews return to the farms they were evicted from by the Jordanians.
> Condemning all measures aimed at altering the demographic composition, character and status of the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem, including, inter alia, the construction and expansion of settlements, transfer of Israeli settlers, confiscation of land, demolition of homes and displacement of Palestinian civilians, in violation of international humanitarian law and relevant resolutions,
This is where people should start opening their eyes. Jerusalem had already been Jewish majority for decades even before the British Mandate for Palestine started. Jordan completely altered the demographic composition, character and status of Jerusalem when it ethnically cleansed the Jews after the 1948 war - so for 19 years out of 3000 years there were no Jews in that area. Yet, when the Jews return (after only 19 years) that is considered us altering the demographic composition, character and status? Any objective observer sees the farce.
> Expressing grave concern that continuing Israeli settlement activities are dangerously imperilling the viability of the two-State solution based on the 1967 lines,
This is true. Jews building houses on the West Bank does imperil the ability to form a racist, no-Jew-allowed ethnostate on the West Bank. Why progressive leftists think that such a state is the proper solution to the conflict is beyond me.
> Recalling the obligation under the Quartet Roadmap, endorsed by its resolution 1515 (2003), for a freeze by Israel of all settlement activity, including “natural growth”, and the dismantlement of all settlement outposts erected since March 2001,
This document is from 2015, no? So because seventy years prior to the writing of the document there were 19 years of no Jews in the West Bank, all Jews who returned must stop building houses? And dismantle the prior 14 years' worth of building, even though those houses were built in areas that the Palestinian leadership and Israel agreed are set aside for Israeli civil development, and in return the Palestinians got areas for their own civil development (which there is no call to dismantle)? As an objective outsider, how does this even make sense to you?
> Recalling also the obligation under the Quartet roadmap for the Palestinian Authority Security Forces to maintain effective operations aimed at confronting all those engaged in terror and dismantling terrorist capabilities, including the confiscation of illegal weapons
Did any member of the Quartet (UN, USA, EU, and Russia) begin, not to mention maintain, any operation aimed at confronting those engaged in terror? Or dismantling terrorist capabilities? Or confiscate illegal weapons? No, only two of those bodies were active in the holy land at the time. The UN "peacekeepers" in Lebanon abetted and filmed Hezbollah's cross-border raid in 2006, in which Israeli soldiers were killed and kidnapped. They didn't film to help, they actually refused to hand over the tapes to Israel. And the EU actually funded (and still funds) the movement of Arabs from Areas A and B to Areas C, in contradition to the agreements made between the PA and the state of Israel. I speak Arabic, I have been to West Bank Arab villages (I won't do it today, I'd be murdered, but I've done it in the past). Many of the hastily-built Arab encampments in Areas C have plaques describing how the EU and member nations have funded construction. The residents will tell you unabashedly from which Areas A and B villages they came from.
Bro really said: "the Palestinians did the nakba to themselves"...
> "We brought disaster upon the refugees, by calling on them to leave their homes. We promised them that their expulsion would be temporary, and that they would return within a few days. We had to admit that we were wrong."
- Syrian Prime Minister Khalid AlAzm > "Since 1948 we have been demanding the return of the refugees to their homes, while it is we who made them leave."
- Same guy, Syrian PM Khalid AlAzm > "The Arab States encouraged the Palestine Arabs to leave their homes temporarily in order to be out of the way of the Arab invasion armies."
- Jordanian newspaper Falastin (Interesting fact, if I'm not mistaken the name of this very newspaper was the first Arab use of the word Falastin - way back in 1911!) > "The fact that there are these refugees is the direct consequence of the action of the Arab States in opposing partition and the Jewish state. The Arab States agreed upon this policy unanimously, and they must share in the solution of the problem."
- Arab Higher Committee Secretary Emile Ghoury> WE APPEAL - in the very midst of the onslaught launched against us now for months - to the Arab inhabitants of the State of Israel to preserve peace and participate in the upbuilding of the State on the basis of full and equal citizenship and due representation in all its provisional and permanent institutions.
> WE EXTEND our hand to all neighboring states and their peoples in an offer of peace and good neighborliness, and appeal to them to establish bonds of cooperation and mutual help with the sovereign Jewish people settled in its own land. The State of Israel is prepared to do its share in a common effort for the advancement of the entire Middle East.
I think this is a bit unfair. Whether you agree or disagree, opponents of Israel have been pretty clear that they think the settlements violate article 49 of the fourth geneva convention. Specificly "The Occupying Power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies."
Sometimes people also argue that the pipelining of Israeli law into settlements violates the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination. I think the argument is that you can only distinguish between citizens and non-citizens on your own territory and thus the way Israeli law is applied in settlements but not outside them is a violation. I'm not super familiar with the argument so i might be mis-stating it. I also think its a bit of a catch-22 since Israel isn't allowed to legislate for the Palestinians either. Regardless it is a rule that they point to.
So i don't think its fair to say opponents of Israeli settlements just claim illegality without pointing to which laws. They do point to laws and rules.
> If it respected international law it would withdraw to its internationally recognized borders.
I am demonstrating that the people who are calling for all types of solutions, are not familiar with the full situation and are calling for things that are the opposite of what they actually think should happen.Of course not. Neither does Bibi [1].
[1] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-says-...
Israel is going to be "the country that committed genocide" unless Israelis find a way to stop it. There's no "but you need to understand the complexities of the situation" when it comes to killing hundreds of thousands of defenseless civilians.
How about Israel stop fighting, right now? Right this minute. The magazines come out of the rifles and the fighter jets stay on the ground. As soon as the Gazans decide that this is what they want, they can return the hostages and this will happen.
Netanyahu won't stop the killing until Israelis, or maybe a future American President, make him.
At the very least, acknowledge that war is expensive and one of the most common tropes thrown at the Jews is that we are cheap. We don't want this expensive war either.
After 9/11 there was ample “glass parking lot” sentiment. If some enclave of Canadians or Mexicans tortured, murdered, raped thousands then kidnapped hundreds of Americans those parts of Canada/Mexico wouldn’t exist any more. And rightfully so. The hyperbole and constant double standards in the criticism undermine the credibility of all involved (I mean, Sudan… Congo… Afghanistans border…).
Every westerner involved in dogpiling needs fundamental clarity in the order of the “Death to ____” claims. Every, single, argument against The Jews applies immediately afterwards to The Brits, The French, The Spanish, and Great Satan itself: The US.
“500 thousand dead Iraqi children” is a “genocide” too, if we don’t care about facts or words. That specific strain of propaganda directly supports 9/11 style attacks and ongoing terrorism against the US.
I deeply disappointed in the mush brained cowardice we’re displaying. The best liberal democracy in the Middle East, and victim of constant horrific terrorism, deserves better.
Then surely you are capable of empathizing with Palestinians. Israel holds thousands of their (civilians!) hostage, in violation of international law, with no fair or expedient trial planned.
Demanding the slaughter of captors does not set a safe precedent for the release of Israel's political prisoners.
> We don't want this expensive war either.
Israel is a nuclear nation. Your countrymen chose to invest in catastrophic war as a way of life, no different from America or Russia. Don't weep about the price of fighting until the IAEA inspects Dimona proper.
The Israeli government can stop fighting in a way that's currently killing Gazan civilians and destroying Gazan civil infrastructure.
The Gazan civilians cannot release the hostages. Those hostages are held by Hamas, the Gazan government.
This broad-brush blaming leads to despicable crimes against humanity, and is why so many nations have agreed to rules of war. It is inhumane to intentionally punish civilians for what their government is doing. Collateral damage is inevitable, but there must be an effort to minimize it and to actively preserve the lives of civilians. If that means sending in convoys of food trucks after securing a city, then that's what a humane government should do.
If the borders were internationally recognized, it would mean that other countries agree that those are the borders. But as far as I know no country recognizes the borders of Mandatory Palestine as the borders of Israel, nor officially recognizes Israel's occupation of the West Bank as legal. I'm not talking about citing chapter and verse of some treaty or some principle like "Uti Possidetis Juris". If the fact of the matter is that other countries do not recognize those borders as the borders of Israel, then those are not the internationally recognized borders of Israel.
This just sounds like uncritical parroting.
The borders of a potential Palestinian state and the state of Israel and the Kingdom of Jordan is one of the most difficult conundrums to consider. I can think of a few "resolutions", none of them really "solutions". I make a huge effort to understand the Israeli side, the greater Arab side, the general Muslim side, and the side of the Palestinians who actually live there. Very few people - from any of those categories - make any effort to understand anybody else's side.
The US was not established in Iraq long enough for generations of adults born in Iraq to have grown up under US control.
The border between US and Iraq is not like the border between two suburbs, and there were never Iraqis crossing that border daily to drive a taxi or clean someone's house or see a doctor.
They had enough control over Gaza before October 7th to deny Gaza a port, an airport, and even the right to do peaceful commercial fishing without getting their boats lit up.
And for whatever limited access their law enforcement institutions had to Gaza for kicking in doors, they just did missile attacks on cars or apartments instead of kicking in doors, because they had no reason to care how many bystanders they killed.
The US had troops in iraq that were going around kicking in doors. I'm not trying to make any claim as to wether the invasion was a good or bad thing (actually i think it was a bad thing), but it clearly meets your definition of when people should get a vote.
At the same time i think most americans would view the proposition that iraqis should vote in us federal elections absurd.
> The US was not established in Iraq long enough for generations of adults born in Iraq to have grown up under US control.
This is a bit of a goal post move but what time frame do you think is relavent? America invaded iraq in 2003. They left briefly but then came back. They still have a small number of troops there right now. There is a generation of iraqis who have grown up never knowing a time where american troops werent in their country.
> The border between US and Iraq is not like the border between two suburbs, and there were never Iraqis crossing that border daily to drive a taxi or clean someone's house or see a doctor.
I'm not sure the relavence. Most borders in europe are like this, they dont vote in each others elections. I don't think at present this would describe the border situation in Israel/Palestine.
> They had enough control over Gaza before October 7th to deny Gaza a port, an airport, and even the right to do peaceful commercial fishing without getting their boats lit up.
Sure, and that's an argument people use to claim that the territory is under Israeli occupation (or sometimes they argue that would not be enough to start an occupation but its enouth to make the occupation not terminate). I think everyone agrees that Israel exerts significant military control over occupied Palestinian territories. That is why they are called "occupied".
No guarantee is worth anything if it’s not eventually backed up by someone’s guns.
100%
The most basic principle in democratic government is that those subject to the monopoly of violence should also have a voice in how that violence is managed.
I'm pretty sure most democracies also have a right to decide who can become a citizen. Forcing a country to give citizenship to enemy combatants would be kinda crazy, regardless of whether or not the territory those combatants operate from is under a military occupation.
Is it disproportionate? Why do we talk about proportions when it comes to Jewish people defending their security but don’t bring it up in other conflicts? There was no talk of proportionate response after 9/11, for example. Virtually all nations who participated in the global war on terror didn’t care.
Proportionality is also not relevant when you’re talking about terrorists who are hiding among civilians on purpose. Why should Israel have to sacrifice the security of its residents to limit collateral damage among the very people who voted for Hamas and still support Hamas, as polls show.
Also, the people who voted for Hamas over 20 years ago? Considering how young the population is, I doubt many were alive then. Hamas won 74 of the 132 seats back then. It's very dangerous rhetoric to say collateral damage should not be limited. Did the babies and the many women who were slaughtered in endless bombing campaigns vote for Hamas to deserve their very end? This rhetoric is exactly why the world has turned their back on Israel. In the US, huge majority of under 35s do not support the state, for example.
I guess it depends on where you were, but for me in Australia at the time, yes - there was plenty.
Since 2005, Israel has maintained a strategy for managing Gaza called "mowing the grass"[0][1] in which every few years they attack and conduct short, sharp military operations. This is in contrast to their strategy of (illegal) settlements in the West Bank. In fact, they removed 8,000 settlers in 2005 when they began this strategy.
Besides the major hostilities of 2008/9,[2] 2012,[3] 2014,[4] and 2021[5], Israel infamously tests new weapons and technology on Gaza, allowing their weapons to be labelled "battlefield tested". One of their largest export is surveillance technology (guess who's the largest customer of that), but they also test drones, air force tech, and even guns. In October 2020 an IDF sniper boasted to Israeli newspaper Haaretz about breaking the "kneecap record" after shooting 42 Palestinian kneecaps in a single day. The snipers purposefully target kneecaps to permanently disable protestors, especially younger ones and increase the burden of care for Gazan society. This is "peacetime" between Gaza and Israel.
Gaza has been called an "open air prison" and "laboratory"[6] for Israel's military industry. The point I'm making is that Israel has never stopped keeping its eye on Gaza. I find it extremely hard to believe Israel didn't know, with extreme detail, what they were getting themselves into
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowing_the_grass
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/14/israel-gaza-...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_War_(2008%E2%80%932009)
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Gaza_War
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Gaza_War
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israel%E2%80%93Palestine_...
[6] https://www.versobooks.com/products/2684-the-palestine-labor...
I find it extremely hard to believe Israel didn't know about the Oct 7 attack in the first place, and chose to use it as a reason.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu
Some of the allegations are 15 years old at this point and the trial is still ongoing.
The IDF has taken a very slow and careful approach. There are typically under a hundred Palestinians killed at a time, but they are killed most days with a high degree of consistency. Headlines like "50 civilians killed in Gaza overnight" no longer make it to the front page. There has clearly been careful management to ensure that the numbers don't climb high enough in a single day to upset the new "normal". Israel has banned foreign journalists and the IDF has deliberately targeted those inside of Gaza to further minimize coverage. On top of that, the IDF has targeted healthcare infrastructure and workers while carefully controlling aid to bring about famine without provoking any significant foreign response.
The big concerns now should be how quickly an incipient famine in a region whose healthcare system has been largely eliminated could cause mass deaths, and how long the fog of war Netanyahu has carefully crafted over Gaza might hide it. The remaining window of time in which intervention might prevent tragedy is rapidly closing.
Benjamin Netanyahu is still in power, his trial for corruption continually delayed as a direct consequence of the war:
Not many mistakes made here, just others who are mistaken about the goals
My understanding is their civilian vs combatant ratio is lower than comparable urban conflicts. So it’s hard to respond “softer”.
Population adjusted, 10/7 was 10x+ worse than 9/11. Challenging to expect zero response.
So what else is there?
Is it the better response under international law? Not necessarily, but it would be better PR.
* a large portion of civilians (and thus civilian casualties) in Mariupol actually identify as ethnic Russians, so it seems unlikely Russia targeted them intentionally
* nobody has filed a genocide case against Russia on the basis of the large number of civilian deaths in Mariupol
Article says 400 people died.
Was Hamas' response proportionate to Israeli actions? What actions specifically.
Before you answer wildly, note that you're talking to someone who knows a dozen hostages and ex-hostages personally. Someone who knows two women whose babies were burned to death. Some whose daughter lost a close friend (that friend was slaughtered in his home along with both siblings and both parents, in their pajamas). Someone whose son's camp counselor was dragged to Gaza and murdered. I could go on. What was Hamas' actions a proportionate respond to?
Your suggestion that Israel stop fighting in contrast to Trump’s direct words stating that he will back Israel fully in defeating Hamas if Hamas does not accept his deal which involves them fully disarming, is essentially suggesting that Israel should accept defeat even when it has the backing of the leader of the most powerful nation on earth. Now either you are ignorant or you are intentionally malevolent in your suggestion… take your pick
I think it's quite the opposite - there has been a very clear, cold, calculated strategy - which is to use the conflict as an cover for doing what some in the government have always wanted to do ( and been quite open about it ) - which is to create a greater Israel - drive out all Palestinians from the river to the sea ( Gaza and West Bank ), as well as push to the river in the north into Lebanon and take more of Syria.
Those in government understand the potential reputation loss - but see that as temporary and something that can be managed under the protection of the US, while viewing the gain of territory as permanent.
Video unavailable The uploader has not made this video available in your country
:-(
yt-dlp --proxy socks5://127.0.0.1:9150 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCh5WrNgydw
"Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas ... This is part of our strategy – to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank."
Gershon Hacohen, former commander of the 7th Armored Brigade and an associate of Benjamin Netanyahu, said in 2019 in an interview:
“Netanyahu’s strategy is to prevent the option of two states, so he is turning Hamas into his closest partner. Openly Hamas is an enemy. Covertly, it’s an ally.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up...
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/10/world/middleeast/israel-q...
It's probably as simple as Netanyahu's branded himself as Israel's protector, and if Palestine were to become less threatening, his political prospects sink.
They want a heroic victory for MB because the West knows there are going to be numerous billions of Muslims and they can't kill them all so the best thing is to 'control' the religion as they own and run MB.
October 7 completely undermined the non-MB resistance. Hamas jumped the gun, Israel 'stood down', and the axis of resistance was caught like deers in a headlight. They have been 'reacting' ever since and have been losing every step of the way.
Now the question is: Is Qatar/MB upset about all this? ...
Q. How many times did any Countries hold islamic-only real-estate expos in Mosques for the former and future homes and territories of Jewish peoples either already dispossessed or planned to be dispossessed due to fundamentalist islamic occupation? _Zero_
Q. How many times did any Countries held jewish-only real-estate expos in Synagogues for the former homes and territories of Muslim peoples either already dispossessed or planned to be dispossessed due to zionist occupation? _Countless_
https://lapublicpress.org/2024/09/israeli-real-estate-fair-h...
https://halifax.citynews.ca/2024/03/07/palestine-is-not-for-...
https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-drawing-protests-in-othe...
https://www.laconverse.com/en/articles/les-coulisses-dun-sal...
They're now at the point where they're paying their contractors $1,500 a house demolished, and constantly inciting violent engagement so as to get the IDF involved and sanitise the area - most notably near the supposed humanitarian relief distribution points they're so fond of double-tap bombing.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250630-shocking-israeli-...
N.B. Israel is now concentrating on the remaining medical facilities, and has carried out at least 17 attacks on or in the vicinity of healthcare facilities in Gaza City since 16 September. (https://www.bmj.com/content/391/bmj.r2078)
Three healthcare facilities—Al Quds Hospital, Al Rantisi Children’s Hospital, and the Medical Relief Health Centre—have all been directly hit, while further strikes were recorded in the vicinity of two more, Al Shifa Medical Complex and Al Ahli Hospital.
Currently, across the Gaza Strip, only 2000 hospital beds remain available, for a population of over 2 million people.
It was atrocious then and it's atrocious now. There's almost something worse about zionst making it a business now. It's one thing to ethnically cleanse an area out of hatred, it's sick on a whole new level to try and turn a buck in the process.
“But Saul and the army spared Agag and the best of the sheep and cattle, the fat calves[b] and lambs—everything that was good. These they were unwilling to destroy completely, but everything that was despised and weak they totally destroyed.”
Now this could be interpreted as a direct instruction not to profit from the conflict. Something Israel is planning on doing once the Palestinians have been removed from Gaza and they build luxury hotels on top of uncountable dead bodies of children. You could argue that even if you grant Israel religious justification for destruction of Gaza, they would not be granted religious justification for profiting from it.
It’s a pointless thing to bring up other than that I think it exposes this whole thing for the colonialist enterprise it really is, and calls into question how much religious belief is really driving the decision making over there.
Very interesting insight.
This is fantasy. Israel (or any country really) ability to expand is limited by its neighbors. Egypt, Jordan and the GCC are more powerful than the 60s and the recent UAE message of pulling of the Abraham accord is a clear signal that they have real weight in Washington. Israel cannot, in the current circumstances, expand.
So I agree with your parent. What Israel currently is doing is non-sense and plays in the hands of Hamas (who is not losing, as civilian lost lives do not count in Hamas counter).
Despite agreeing to leave under the brokered peace deal, Israel are still in southern Lebanon and show no sign of leaving. The flagrant breach of the original cease fire agreement appears to have no consequences.
The effective seige and annexation of the West bank appears to be gathering pace.
Smotrich said back in April that their campaign in Syria will end 'when Syria is dismantled' - they show no sign of leaving, and are still running operations in and around Damascus, and appear to be running the classic divide and conquer strategy.
While the countries you mention may be stronger - Syria and Lebanon are both very weak and very dependent on US 'aid'.
And in terms of US support, which I agree is critical in all this, they appear to have carte blanc from the current US administration.
Also criticism from EU countries is much more muted than their populations would like - for example the UK government is spending more effort on trying to lock up it's own protesting citizens ( for 14 years under anti-terror laws for doing nothing more that holding up a sign ) than doing anything to stop Israel.
Long term - who knows - but right now the plan does appear to be working.
Jordan and Egypt are 3 and 4 behind Ukraine and Israel in terms of being the recipient of US aid.
I doubt El-sisi could remain in power for long if that aid was withdrawn - if you are kept in power by the military but can no longer afford the wages....
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uae-yemen-somalia-circle-...
It’s been way too short a time to tell if this will work, but responding in a softer manner has proven to not. Might work is better than won’t work.
Absolutely! As R.A. Lafferty correctly posited[0]:
“When you have shot and killed a man you have in some measure clarified your
attitude toward him. You have given a definite answer to a definite problem.
For better or worse you have acted decisively. In a way, the next move is up
to him.”
― R.A. Lafferty
Yes. It's up to those dead Palestinians to now make peace. And the more dead Palestinians there are, there are more who are on the hook to do so. In fact, if we kill them all, they'll be in the perfect spot to make peace, amirite?[0] https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/11072354-when-you-have-shot...
They have neutered Hamas, Iran, Hezbollah, and effected the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.
I don’t think Israel cares about foreign civilian opinions. Western states are largely still aligned and dependent on Israeli geopolitical presence.
Palestine is not and never was the focal point of this conflict. It was always Iran.
Such as ?
Another part stemmed from the extreme dehumanization of Palestinians that was already established in Israeli society long before (and to a lesser extent also in other western countries). The overton window had already been shifted so far that this kind of response was seen as mostly normal.
I found the standard justifications of "eh, war is always cruel" and "when their kids grow up, they will just become the next generation of terrorists" pretty telling.
But, obviously, there's no reliable source in a war zone, and starving people often don't die directly from hunger, but from disease after being weakened. Most statistics about deaths from famines are estimates after the fact.
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/09/21/2021-20...
this financial blacklisting was done on the mere allegation of famine and no court tribunal was involved at all and nobody split hairs on the definition
find and replace Ethiopia with Israel, Eritrea with Gaza, and that's all we need to do
happy Yom Kippur! there's a lot to atone for, as some say, and an easy way for the US Government to ensure it
not that it is a proper response, but you know, at least it would be a principled one
I am originally from Russia and I do not support the war my country has started. I moved to another country because of that. And I face all the fun consequences from two nice restrictions above. Some of my former neighbors or acquaintances who decided to stay in the country or even support the invasion face no issues. They don't visit other countries and don't need international cards.
Which means both these things primary target people who most likely do not support the shit which is happening. Is that the goal?
as such, sarcasm here is beyond measurement - obviously those measures were just a distraction for own voters, but presented as a matter of principle yada yada yada
an absolutely identical situation gets a 100% hush hush reverse treatment, hence my comment on being a matter of principle - even though I don't agree with such measures, seeing them implemented against Israelis would at least be an honest thing to do instead of the current hypocrisy
You can sit with literal video of an incident, and then see media headlines tell a completely different story than what actually happened.
Social media in our generation has been a weird amplifier of both misinformation as well as truth from the ground that contradicts misinformation in the media.
My selection of topics I trust media to report on has greatly narrowed down to ones that are completely apolitical, which is sad (they’ve always been biased, but at least I felt you could tell that they were biased and read through it).
Instead, many—including major Western media outlets—repeat Hamas’ narrative: that Israel is responsible for the killing (while Hamas has been accused of using human shields [0]) and that Israel prevents the UN from distributing aid (even though the UN is said to be heavily infiltrated by Hamas [1], and the GHF was established to restrict Hamas’ access to food supplies and prevent profiteering through resale [2]).
Furthermore, if starvation in Gaza is a pressing reality, why does the UN refuse to distribute food directly [4]? In fact, the claim that there is a famine going on just doesn't match the numbers [5], and UN-linked IPC finds no mortality data to prove famine is present, despite their very intention of proving so [6], and media was found to misrepresent the situation on the ground [7]
Finally, little attention is given to Egypt’s role in maintaining the blockade of Gaza, which also contributes to "famine". Egypt does not allow Gazans—who are described by some as facing genocide—to cross its border to escape [3]. It often seems as though those who argue that starvation is being deliberately inflicted prefer to keep the situation unchanged, only to place the blame on Israel.
0: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/11/01/hamas-officials-admi...
1: https://govextra.gov.il/unrwa/unrwa/
2: https://www.aipac.org/resources/gaza-aid
3: https://theconversation.com/why-egypt-refuses-to-open-its-bo...
4: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/07/24/un-refuses-to-cooper...
5: https://x.com/Aizenberg55/status/1966495888051761582
6: https://www.timesofisrael.com/key-food-security-org-finds-no...
7: https://honestreporting.com/famine-standard-was-lowered-for-...
The narrative that “it is complex therefore there is nothing to be done” is meant to paralyze people from standing up for what’s right.
The solution has always been a single democratic secular state from the river to the sea. For all inhabitants of the land. Including those expelled previously.
On the Palestinian side, it doesn't give them the "right of return" (to the land they were expelled from in 1948) that they frankly deserve, which is a tough pill to swallow for them. But besides some hardliners they've pretty much resigned themselves to the fact they'll never get their stolen land back (much like the Native Americans).
On the Israeli side, it's much more problematic as it would mean dismantling many or all of the settlements on the WB. This is anathema to Israel and would be heavily resisted (perhaps violently) by the settlers who were put there in the first place expressly to prevent a two-state solution. Israel deliberately violated all the agreements about settlements reached over the years in order to create a situation where it could say "we can't expect those settlers to move out". It's no coincidence that the settlers who were given the stolen land are generally the most militant of the Israelis, and many are heavily armed, by the way.
As an American, I'm disgusted that my tax dollars are actively supporting genocide.
And let's not fall into the trap of telling ourselves that this only started in response to Oct 7. The Palestinians have been severely oppressed for _decades_ -- which is why it's almost impossible to root out something like Hamas, because the next generation of boys will be more than willing to sacrifice themselves to break and/or avenge the oppression of their families when they get old enough to carry a gun.
"Tulkarm and Jenin will look like Jabalia and Shujaiya. Nablus and Ramallah will look like Rafah and Khan Younis. They too will be uninhabitable ruins, their residents will be forced to migrate and seek a new life in other countries." - Bezalel Smotrich, Finance Minister of Israel
"It's a simple matter, existential and survival, of wiping these crazy Amalekites off the face of the Earth. Like the Nazis, so with Hamas: we will fight them and hunt them forever. Until not one of them is left. This is a Jewish commandment. This is an Israeli commandment. This is a historic commandment. And today's pictures are just another reminder of what we must not forget for a single moment: the nature of this deranged enemy. And why they must be wiped off the face of the earth." - Shai Golden, Channel 14 News
"Gazans will be concentrated in a very defined area and live as refugees their whole lives without water or electricity until they decide, of their own accord, to emigrate." - Eyal Shalit Snir, Lt. Col. in the Israeli military
"Anyone who stays there [in north Gaza] will be judged by law as a terrorist and will go through either a process of starvation or a process of extermination." - Uzy Raby, Professor of Middle Eastern History, Tel Aviv University
[Quotes taken from zionism dot observer, a website that aggregates statements from Israeli sources]
I think there's a sort of naivete amongst people who don't pay close attention to the realities of Israel's social and political climate, and simply ascribing a sort of ghoulish evil to the vague bloc of 'nationalist' or 'religious' right-wing is simply not true. Genocidal intent permeates every level of Israeli society, from citizenry to the highest decision-making levels of the government, to all strata of the military. Israel is a fascist society and it's plain to see. This is a Pandora's Box that cannot be shut anymore, and people won't magically unsee or forget the horrors that are broadcast on a daily basis on social media. The ghastly accusations of 'Pallywood' don't cut it anymore, either. The sheer speed of information dissemination has ensured that whatever horrors the Palestinians are experiencing the rest of the world sees in real time, as opposed to being memoryholed for 5-10 years, then uncovered in a viral tweet. Now, every airstrike is actually recorded as it happens, alongside its outcome.
Ironically, the same thing will happen in future Israeli generations when they look back at the current genocide - "No, my grandfather wasn't involved in the Gaza war"
iberator•4mo ago
ps. Interesting trivia: Mahmoud Abbas (President of the Palestinian West Bank) and FATAH militia also are against Hamas. They always have been:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_conflict
Nothing is black or white.
kombine•4mo ago
boxed•4mo ago
The massive demonstrations in the street seem to counter your narrative though.
pydry•4mo ago
~15% of Israelis believe that a terrorist who shot up a mosque (literally all he did) is a national hero.
It shouldnt be that that hard to imagine that most of the rest are willing to look the other way in the event of a genocide against the same untermensch.
tdeck•4mo ago
https://archive.is/nNzq4
(It's an archive link because the original is paywalled).
> Nearly half (47 percent) of respondents agreed that "when conquering an enemy city, the Israel Defense Forces should act as the Israelites did in Jericho under Joshua's command – killing all its inhabitants."
nashashmi•4mo ago
https://youtu.be/lHuUJTPhN0A
jameshilliard•4mo ago
There tends to be a lot more nuance[0] when it comes to polling results like these, the reality is that opinions amongst Israelis vary quite a lot. There are also a lot of problems with organizations like the UN historically wildly misrepresenting the food situation[1] which are likely to make Israelis question the accuracy of many of these starvation reports, especially from organizations that have historically made many highly inaccurate claims. UN backed IPC reports like those cited in the CNN article likewise have serious credibility issues as well[2], additionally there are extremely biased individuals like Michael Fakhri(the UN’s special rapporteur on the right to food) cited in the CNN article that even publish comic books with some rather overt antisemitic tropes[3].
[0] https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2025-06-04/ty-article-opinio...
[1] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-one-un-leaders-mistak...
[2] https://unwatch.org/hillel-neuer-on-sky-news-fabricated-u-n-...
[3] https://unwatch.org/legal-analysis-of-un-food-rapporteur-mic...
tsimionescu•4mo ago
Edit: looking at the claims more specifically, this one is particularly easy to debunk:
> even publish comic books with some rather overt antisemitic trope
The supposed "antisemitic trope" is an image of a person holding a cracked globe. The blog post implies that this is supposed to be an image representing the antisemitic "masters of the world" trope. In fact, the image represents the UN rapporteur himself looking at how the lack of international reaction to Israel's crimes has left a crack in the UN-led rules-based world order.
NebulaChaser92•4mo ago
impomura•4mo ago
tdeck•4mo ago
fergie•4mo ago
danielbenzvi1•4mo ago
On top of that, politics and demographics shifted rightward, and October 7th reinforced the belief that peace is not realistic in the near term. For many Israelis, moderation no longer feels like a safe or responsible option- it feels like a risk their families can’t afford.
fergie•4mo ago
danielbenzvi1•4mo ago
This is a very dire situation. We’ve come to realize there are millions, perhaps tens of millions, across the region whose worldview includes the elimination of the Jewish state, and they are very committed to it. We can’t and won’t wage war on whole populations as that is not in our blood. Nor can we realistically change their beliefs in the foreseeable future or find something to offer that would produce lasting peace.
So today our choices feel grim and limited. That is why many Israelis believe we must: 1. Be excellent at predicting attacks and when necessary, strike first to disrupt them 2. Impose a very heavy cost on anyone who contemplates attacking us, so others think twice 3. Remain stronger and more capable than everyone around us
It’s a terrible place to be, and it’s not the future anyone hoped for. But until there’s a credible, sustained shift in the region, a process that would likely take generations of committed leadership, many here see little alternative.
dariosalvi78•4mo ago
https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/poll-show-most-jew...
DiogenesKynikos•4mo ago
Israeli society is deeply complicit in the mass killing and starvation in Gaza. The IDF is a citizen army. There haven't been mass refusals or resistance. It's not just Netanyahu.
alistairSH•4mo ago
In the US, we do... due to the structure of the Senate and Electoral College, low population states wield outsize influence on national politics. This goes as far as allowing the election of a president with <50% national support. Add in political gerrymandering (setting electrical districts to constrain the influence of certain demographics), and we have a national government that's opposed to policies that have wide support across the population in general.