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China's new pharma API war, and lessons from its last strike

https://the-ken.com/newsletter/make-india-competitive-again/chinas-new-pharma-api-war-and-lessons-from-its-last-strike/
3•alephnerd•4mo ago

Comments

alephnerd•4mo ago
"China is targeting the exact 41 molecules that India’s PLI scheme wants to make the country self-reliant in. Indian pharma knows better than to abandon local API makers, but deep challenges remain"
SilverElfin•4mo ago
I applaud China’s aggressive strategic actions in terms of how well thought out it is, but also fear it given how their government operates. It’s a shame the US poisoned its ties with India, because India and the west need each other.
alephnerd•4mo ago
The US-India relation is still continuing - especially in the defense space - but mutual domestic political interests make it difficult for a deal to go thru.

It also doesn't help that India's ONGC [0] and ExxonMobil [1] are competing for the same oil project in Russia (Sakhalin-1), which is what lead to the US-India tiff over Russian oil.

That said, recent Trump diktats like the 100% tariff on foreign branded pharmaceuticals while excluding generics have been viewed positively within India [2], as it hurts European competitors and makes the India-EFTA (read: Switzerland) FTA even more competitive to bring manufacturing capacity to India. Same with the recent H1B ruling, which while unpopular amongst middle class Indians, is viewed positively by Indian policymakers as forcing a reverse brain drain [3] and incentivizing GCCs [4].

India is also trying to give concessions to ExxonMobil in Indian LNG infra to remove the blocker [5]. This also helps India negotiate the FTA with Qatar [6] because Qatar's LNG is extracted and exported through Qatar-Exxon JVs [7]

That said, Grassley and Iowa republicans remain a blocker [8][9] because they want to export soybean and dairy to India becuase they are now shut out of the Chinese market because of Trump (which has made Iowa's gubernatorial election much more competitive), which is a huge red line for India. Same with dairy in Wisconsin and the Indian market.

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/exclusive-indias-ongc-...

[1] - https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/exxon-rosneft-russia...

[2] - https://www.biospectrumindia.com/news/16/26737/will-100-tari...

[3] - https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/us-loss-will-be-indi...

[4] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/trump-visa-curbs-push-us...

[5] - https://www.livemint.com/news/exxonmobil-chevron-lng-india-g...

[6] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-likely-finalise-qa...

[7] - https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/locations/qatar/economic-de...

[8] - https://governor.iowa.gov/press-release/2025-09-16/gov-reyno...

[9] - https://www.thegazette.com/agriculture/grassley-iowa-soybean...

Transcribe your aunts post cards with Gemini 3 Pro

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.72% Variance Lance

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