All jobs will disappear, possibly within one year? Um, no. No way. Not even all white collar jobs, and certainly not all jobs.

There is one reasonable basis on which AI will not improve signifigantly. AI already effectively has access to all data ever created and it can't tell you how many Bs are in Blueberry.

> Is there an imagining that there is some imminent trivial threshold at which AI will stop improving?

AI seems to need more and more power and expense thrown at it to get from say a 70% answer to an 80%, then just as much again to an 85%, then just as much again to an 87.5%. Speed of progress in the lower percentages is not an indicator of speed in the higher percentages.

If AI improves at the current pace, then few jobs will disappear. Yes, I'm well-aware that some companies have engaged in cyclic belt-tightening and are trying to sound forward-thinking and say it was a result of AI, but there's no evidence that AI actually caused any of those job losses.

This is true today, but only for about another 5 years. The Boomers are aging out. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/04/28/millennia...

> Jobs taken by automation have always been replaced by jobs created by the economies resulted from automation.

Completely irrelevant.

Just because something happened in the past, doesn't mean it will happen in the future. Especially when you're talking with vague generalities (like you are) about something where the devil is in the details.

And then there are the personal effects, which comments like yours completely fail to address. If you lose your job and end up working at Walmart for a 10% the salary for the rest of your a career, while some other guy someplace else gets a new job that pays 75% your old one, is that a good outcome? People aren't fungible, especially when thinking about themselves.